Michelle Obama Liveblog #1: Anatomy of Enthusiasm

This is how it looks inside.





This is how it looked outside.



Oh, yes. It's madness over here at the Henderson Convention Center. Michelle Obama will soon be here. And the crowd is already starting to go wild as the "pre-rally pomp and circumstance" begins.

There's already plenty of shouting and cheering happening. Again, it's clearly looking like Nevada Democrats are fired up and ready to go.

So I just wonder how the media will spin "the enthusiasm gap" this time. After all, Democrats are mostly getting excited about reelecting Obama. Republicans, on the other hand (and especially Nevada's G-O-TEA), aren't all that happy. Hmmm... I wonder why?

The event is now beginning, so I'll go back to Twitter @atdleft to update you on what's happening. So far, it looks like there will be plenty of cheering and shouting here in the mosh pit.

"That's a Clown Question, Bro."

For some reason, the Beltway pundit crowd always gets puzzled whenever Harry Reid gets badass on them.

It’s no secret that Sen. Harry Reid is a fan of Bryce Harper, the 19-year-old slugger from Las Vegas who’s led the Washington Nationals from the butt of capital-city jokes to first place in the National League’s Eastern Division.

But few ever expected the septuagenarian senator would start emulating the phenom teen’s now-infamous quips.

When confronted with a question Reid didn’t feel like answering at his weekly press availability, Reid turned and told a reporter: “That’s a clown question, bro.”

Harper said the same thing to a Canadian reporter last week who asked him if he would celebrate hitting a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays with a beer. Harper is above the legal drinking age in Canada.

Reid invoked Harper’s line when a reporter asked him what he thought of Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, saying the Republicans were going to wait to fully respond to President Barack Obama’s announcement last Friday that DREAM-Act eligible youth could start applying for work visas until Mitt Romney presented his response.

And apparently, they're further confounded by "Abuelito" Reid's ability to shame the G-O-TEA by simply unmasking their crazed extremism. They just didn't know how to handle President Obama's recent announcement on immigration policy, so they clumsily tried to spin away their filibusters against the DREAM Act. I guess they figured that was their least bad option, since they're winning over no new supporters with their xenophobia.

Someone must have told them to wake up and smell the polling.

The latest poll from Bloomberg was conducted after the president’s June 15 directive, which applies to undocumented immigrants under 30 years old who were brought to the United States before the age of 16, have been in the country for at least five years and graduated from high school, earned a GED or served in the military. In the nationwide survey, 64 percent of likely voters agree with the president’s decision, while 30 percent disagree. Sixty-six percent of independents — a crucial portion of the electorate that will likely decide the presidential race — support the policy.

Although Obama insisted that he bypassed Congress to advance the policy because it was “the right thing to do,” it is hard to ignore the political shrewdness of the move. The policy could prove to be a galvanizing force among the nation’s largest ethnic minority group. A poll on Monday showed Latino voters in five swing states are much more enthusiastic about Obama in the wake of the move.

Obama has also placed his general election opponent in a political quandary. Mitt Romney, who took a hardline position on immigration during the Republican nomination contest, has actively avoided the issue since the president’s Friday announcement. The presumptive Republican nominee may now be handcuffed, stuck between potentially alienating his party’s base — the Bloomberg poll shows 56 percent of Republicans oppose the president’s policy — and disenchanting a voting bloc whose influence on American elections will only grow. Obama’s move will affect upwards of 800,000 undocumented immigrants.

This just further complicates Republicans' dilemma. After all, "TEA" fueled radical righties like Romney have been the ones using racism immigration to whip the "tea party" into a frenzy. No matter how hard they try to spin it, that's the reality behind the spin.

And now, they're angry that their anti-immigrant strategy is blowing up in their faces. So what does the G-O-TEA do? Simple, just try to blame someone else and distract with something else...

That is, if Republicans can finally agree on a response. I wonder if Dean Heller will say anything soon. Ah, why even bother? That's such a clown question, bro.

Yes, I'll Finally See Michelle Obama Today.

That was the scene yesterday @OFA_NV's Henderson office. As you can see, there was plenty of excitement ahead of today's visit by a certain special someone.

And she couldn't have picked a better time to come here. Folks are still processing the President's new immigration order. Local governments are dashing to plug into renewable energy. Oh, and the housing market finally seems to be looking up. Yep, it's good timing that FLOTUS is coming here today.

Oh yes, and then there's the fact that she's here just three weeks after this guy came back to town. Ha, perfect timing.

So anyways, I'll finally have a chance to go today. Check @atdleft on Twitter starting around 1:00 PM today for updates on what's happening at the Henderson Convention Center. And as soon as I can do it, I'll provide fuller updates here on the blog.

Hey, I can't leave you out of what should be the "funnest" Tuesday I've experienced in some time.

No Wonder Why "Tea Party, Inc." Is So Scared.

NSEA recently paid for a poll testing the corporate margin tax it's backing alongside Nevada AFL-CIO. They must have been smiling after seeing this. So far, respondents are answering favorably. In fact, the initiative is leading 59-32 among voters!

And funny enough, the only two demographic groups it's losing are Republicans and conservatives. Among everyone else, it's leading solidly. It's leading 59-30 in the Vegas media market, and it's even leading 59-36 in the Reno media market!

However you want to look at it, it's a blowout in the making. And it explains why Brian Sandoval has been so afraid of our state having an honest conversation on "The T Word".

It looks like most Nevadans are finally reaching their breaking point. They're getting sick and tired of seeing our kids suffer under third world conditions at our public schools while out of state multinational corporations enjoy first class tax evasion. Something's got to give.

And perhaps, it finally will. After all, can our state afford to take more of the same?

John Lee's Out... So What's Next for Nevada Priorities?

So Pat Spearman defeated John Lee in SD 1. So what's next? There were some clues found in yesterday's Sun.

Sen. John Lee’s defeat Tuesday by Patricia Spearman in the Democratic primary marked the first time that a lawmaker was targeted and defeated from the left.

“Our goal is to re-center the party,” said Erin Neff, executive director of ProgressNow Nevada Action, one of the groups involved in the effort. “We want to pull the party back from the right wing. To do that, we have got to replace the conservative Democrats with normal Democrats, Democrats who hold our values and vote with us.”

And how exactly are they planning to re-center the party? They're looking at future primaries.

Specifically, Neff said she was watching http://www.marilynkirkpatrick.com/Assemblywoman Marilyn Kirkpatrick, D-North Las Vegas, and Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, D-Sparks, who’s running for state Senate.

“I think there’s room for them to change next session,” she said, pointing to Kirkpatrick’s involvement in the late and ultimately unsuccessful tax debate last year and Smith’s bills changing work conditions for teachers. (Smith said she was surprised to be targeted. Kirkpatrick did not return a call for comment by deadline.)

Members of the coalition said they have no intention of working from within the Democratic Party structure. Instead, they intend to flex their newfound muscle in future Democratic primaries and in Carson City in 2013.

Remember when we discussed all the pent up frustration with the status quo in Carson City? Well, the folks in the Nevada Priorities coalition have begun taking action. And it's looking like primary-ing John Lee was only Step 1.

But why? Remember when we talked about the importance of values in campaigns? It still comes down to values. And going forward, there are a number of legislators, including some Democrats, who will need to be reminded of what Nevada values.

Certainly, there's a risk in going too far. Look at how insane the Nevada Republican Party has become precisely because it's been taken over by fringe radicals more interested in ideological "purity" than winning or governing. It's just not healthy for governing to devolve into pointless ideological warfare. After all, that's what's causing so much mayhem in Congress right now.

However, it's also a problem when legislators become unresponsive to their constituents. That's a big reason why John Lee fell last week. And it looks to be why the Nevada Priorities coalition feels it's not done shaking up the system just yet.

How long have we talked about progressive tax reform? How long have we talked about fully funding public education? And how long have we talked about rebooting Nevada's economy to be more sustainable in the future? Well, that's the problem. And the solution may finally be underway.

New #NVLeg Assembly Race Ratings

Now that we talked about the Senate, it's time to check on the Assembly. Oh yes, that's right. We also have new #NVLeg race ratings there as well. And now that the primary is over, we have a better sense of what to expect this fall.

When we last checked on the Assembly in March, it looked like plenty of change was in store, even as the partisan numbers weren't. So has that changed since then? We'll find out below.

Clark County

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 58%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

There was never any suspense about the primary... And I'm starting to wonder how much we'll see in the general. "Tea Party" Republican Michelle Fiore started her fundraising well, and it's starting to look like Democrat Ken Evans isn't keeping up. He will need plenty of resources to flip this seat, even if Fiore is... Well, crazy.

AD 5
Spring Valley/Las Vegas- Peccole Ranch
Nested into SD 8

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Since our last report, it looks like Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop has doubled down... And brought in some friends to go all in for her. While Republican challenger Bill Harrington did coast past his primary, he hasn't raised much $. And with the exception of "Tea Party, Inc." power player Monte Miller coming in to help him, it's looking like the rest of Nevada's key "business establishment" power players are betting on Dondero Loop.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

As expected, Democrat Andrew Martin easily sailed through his primary. However, Republicans are a little embarrassed over their star recruit, Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman, narrowly losing the GOP primary to "some dude" Clay Hurst. And not only is Hurst "some dude", but he's "some dude" who hasn't even filed a C&E (contribution and expense) report! Now, Martin just needs good Democratic turnout this fall to seal the deal. And considering all the field work that will be done for John Oceguera and Justin Jones (AD 9 also overlaps NV-03), that shouldn't be too much of a problem.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas
Nested into SD 21

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is probably the last time you see AD 12 on the scoreboard. Though James Ohrenschall initially ran into trouble when his district shed some of heavily Democratic (and Latino) East Las Vegas to pick up heavily Republican (and wealthy and white) Lake Las Vegas, it now looks like he will live on for another term. His Republican opponent, Bridgette Bryant, has so far raised $1,350 total! Once again, Nevada Republican ineptitude looks to be saving another Nevada Democrat.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Tossup

While the Assembly GOP Caucus must be relieved that Paul Anderson survived a "TEA" fueled primary challenge from Leonard Foster, they still can't rest easy here. Lou DeSalvio won the Democratic Primary, and he's been "packing heat" in his fundraising. And since both he and Kelli Ross (who's running for Senate here) are moderates with the strong potential for crossover appeal, Anderson and his Republican Establishment backers will have to work to lock down this seat.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson
Nested into SD 12

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 50%
Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

On paper, this should be a very competitive district. And while I still suspect Crescent Hardy is just too conservative for this district, he may just be able to slip through the cracks due to a lack of due diligence on the part of the Assembly Democratic Caucus. Felipe Rodriguez has hardly raised any money, and it's unclear as to what kind of field he's doing. And while there are many Democratic strongholds in the new AD 19, they have to be worked hard to get the kind of turnout that one regularly sees in the rock solid Republican parts of the district that Crescent Hardy is counting on to win another term.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

For now, both party establishments are happy. Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed Andy Eisen and Assembly Republican Caucus endorsed Becky Harris won their respective primaries, so it's now game on for those two in the general. Both live in Silverado Ranch, both are prodigious fundraisers, and both have great looking resumes. While Harris probably won't make this an easy pickup for Democrats, I still sense the partisan leanings of the new AD 21 give Eisen at least a bit of an edge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) got a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

At first, incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson) seemed destined to reach the top of "The Endangered Legislators List", as her district was shifted to the right in redistricting. And when famous "The Gun Store" owner Bob Irwin decided to jump in and challenge Mastroluca, I honestly didn't know what to expect next.

Yet while GOP money men Sheldon Adelson and Monte Miller have cut checks for Irwin, his fundraising is falling seriously behind Mastroluca's (who's already raised over $85,000 so far and has her own power players backing her up). And other than his hideous looking roadside signs, I haven't seen any field work on his behalf. Mastroluca, on the other hand, has become an expert in maximizing her ground game to win close elections.

While she's far from out of the woods, April Mastroluca may soon find a path back to the promised land (of another term in Carson City).

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

On the Democratic side, there was little drama as Assembly Caucus endorsed James Healey won the primary. However on the Republican side, "tea party" backed "some dude" Tom Blanchard scored a surprising upset victory over Establishment backed (and son of recently failed NV-04 candidate Barbara Cegavske) Adam Cegavske. Consider this another G-O-TEA Primary FAIL that may very well come back to bite Nevada Republicans.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest
Nested into SD 6

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 48%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 55%
R Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

However, Marcus Conklin isn't making this easy for Duncan and Assembly GOP Leadership. While the $45,000 that Duncan has raised so far would be respectable in a normal race, Conklin has already piled up over $220,000 (!!!!!) and has lined up almost the entire "gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" (basically, everyone but Monte Miller and Sheldon Adelson) behind him. Still, we'll have to wait and see if the law of diminishing marginal returns kicks in. Will Conklin be able to pay for the kind of phenomenal outreach he'll most definitely need to win reelection, or will Duncan be able to turn this around and run against a "corrupt insider incumbent"?

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village
Nested into SD 16

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 47%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 62%
R Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. And even worse, he's raised very little $ so far.

Unless Washoe Democrats run into a miracle soon, this is probably the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Lemmon Valley/Sparks- Shadow Mountain
Nested into SD 14

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 49%
Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 59%
R Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well? So far he's outraised Espinosa by about 2-1, he's working the field hard on his own, and he can count on state party field work (for Obama and Shelley Berkley) to turn out more Democratic voters for him as well.

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---

Since March, the number of true Tossup races has shrunken. On one hand, Republicans have gained more of an upper hand in securing 4 and flipping 19, Democrats have gained more of an edge in holding 5, 12, and 29, as well as in winning the new 9. So here's the new list of the hottest Assembly races, listed in order of likelihood of Democratic win.

41 (Hold)
35 (Flip)
29 (Hold)
21 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
31 (Hold)
37 (Hold)
13 (Flip)
4 (Flip)
19 (Hold)

If the election were today, I'd draw the line after 31. This would mean Republicans gain 19 and 37... And knock out the very person Democrats thought would be the next Speaker. Ouch!

However, Republicans shouldn't get too giddy. After all, this also means Democrats gain 20 (a safe pickup), 9, 35, and 21, which is all Team Blue needs to reach the magic #28 needed for a 2/3 supermajority! While Assembly Democrats may be embarrassed over losing their Speaker-in-waiting, others may be happy just to be back at the sweet spot of 2/3. This would mean a net gain of 2 seats for Democrats.

Post-Primary #NVLeg Senate Ratings

I promised you this on Wednesday, so I'll start delivering today. You asked, so you shall receive. Now that the primary is over, it's time to take a fresh look at the hot races that will determine the balance of power in Carson City and Washington, DC, next year. And today, we will be starting with another look at the upper house of Nevada's Legislature: The Senate.

When we last checked in March, Republicans were starting to get nervous about their chances of retaking the Senate. And as you'll see below, there's still plenty of reasons for them to have the jitters (though Democrats shouldn't get overconfident, either).

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley, Silverado Ranch, Old Henderson

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 45%

Race Rating: Tossup

So Former Henderson City Council Member Steve Kirk handily won his GOP primary against "tea partier" Annette Teijero. Now, the really tough part begins.

Early on, Kirk was seen by many pundits as at least a slight favorite (despite the partisan numbers) because of his strong fundraising. However, he was ultimately forced to spend in the primary. That gave Democrat and Former State Senator Joyce Woodhouse (who entered just this year, after Senator Shirley Breeden announced her retirement) a chance to catch up on fundraising... And get a head start on persuading voters in the field.

While I'm not yet comfortable taking this seat out of "Tossup Territory", I am thinking Senate Republican Leader Michael Roberson will soon be sweating bullets because of this race... If he hasn't started already. If Kirk loses to Woodhouse, then Democrats will keep the Senate.

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 53%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

If Republicans have to sweat bullets on 5, then Democrats must be getting a little jittery on 6. While Senate Democratic Caucus endorsed candidate Benny Yerushalmi won the primary, he only won with 56% against "some dude" Tom Welsh (who barely spent any $). Some insiders thought Yerushalmi's strong fundraising would help Team Blue crush "tea party" darling Mark Hutchison in this seat being vacated by Democrat Allison Copening (who beat GOP incumbent Bob Beers in 2008 in a more GOP friendly district), but this week's primary results should make them rethink that assumption.

While Hutchison, the lawyer hand-picked by then Governor Jim Gibbons (R) to fight the Affordable Care Act in court, may be too conservative on paper for this swing seat, Yerushalmi and the Caucus clearly have more work ahead of them in convincing voters to choose him instead.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So Roberson got his way in the end after all. Mari St. Martin will indeed be the GOP nominee here. However, that's coming at a very steep price. While Brent Jones failed to upset on Tuesday, his "tea party" fueled opposition to St. Martin and Roberson succeeded in damaging the former Nevada Republican Party spokesperson's public image. In branding St. Martin as a "reckless party girl", they reminded voters of their Former Senator turned Maxim model (Elizabeth Halseth). And in the end, that does nothing but further weaken Team Red in this seat that redistricting first put into play.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Justin Jones breezed through his primary, raised over $130,000 so far this year, and has been working the field like crazy. While Nevada Democrats aren't taking this seat for granted, they must be smiling ay the kind of rock solid campaign Jones is running... And giggling at the train wreck Republicans are trying desperately to salvage.

SD 18
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 50%
H Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 38%

Race Rating: Tossup

Normally, this kind of seat is incredibly difficult for Democrats to win. However, a "near perfect storm" has put flipping this seat into the realm of possibility.

First off, the North had to give up a Senate seat. Secondly, Democrats scored big time when Kelli Ross, local businesswoman and wife of Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross, decided to run here. And finally, they've been helped by the ugly Republican infighting spilling over to local races.

Still, Roberson approved candidate Scott Hammond survived the primary... And that part isn't sweet music to Democrats' ears. In this primary, Roberson got to breathe a big sigh of relief.

However, Assembly Member Hammond now has a bigger task ahead in fighting for his promotion in the general. And since Kelli Ross has managed to thread the needle in preventing the Democratic base from throwing her overboard (she survived her own primary challenge from progressive favorite Donna Schlemmer) while maintaining her appeal to independent and crossover Republican voters, she can't be counted out. This is likely still a close race that Republicans will have to fight hard to win.

SD 1
North Las Vegas- Eldorado, Aliante

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 60%
Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
R Reid (D) 54%
Sandoval (R) 42%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is likely the only time you'll ever see this seat on the board. I'm only putting it on today as a courtesy to anyone who's wondering how progressive challenger Pat Spearman's shocking landslide defeat of Blue Dog incumbent John Lee changes the state of this race. Basically, it doesn't. For goodness sake, Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate here! While the Independent American candidate will probably get a higher than usual share of the vote in this Nor'town based district, Spearman will most likely take over Lee's old desk in the Senate Chambers next year.

Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Caughlin Ranch, Northwest, West Downtown

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 37%

Race Rating: Tossup

Oddly enough, the race likely to provide the most drama in November caused next to none in the primary. Republican Greg Brower and Democrat Sheila Leslie are now set to battle on to November. And while Brower has the advantages of a well organized county party (as opposed to the NV GOP train wreck), a very slight GOP registration edge, and a strong fundraiser in Brower, Leslie has the advantages of a strong state Democratic Party run field operation, likely strength at the top of the ticket (in private polling, Obama has been surprisingly resilient in Washoe County), and a strong grassroots campaigner in Leslie. This will likely be hard fought all the way to the end, and Washoe Republicans will be scrambling furiously here because they know the Senate is lost if Brower loses.

So what does the final count look like? Again, let me give the latest scoreboard, which is ranked highest to lowest in likelihood of Democratic win.

9 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
15 (Flip)
6 (Hold)
18 (Flip)

(And again, there's a better chance of Hell freezing over than that of Republicans winning 1.)

If I had to draw a line now, it would again fall just after 15. This would give Democrats 12 seats, or a net gain of 1 (GOP flips 6, but Dems flip 9 & 15). However, things may change drastically because we have 4 Tossup seats. Expect much more action in the war for control of #NVLeg this summer and fall.

One More Anti-Choice FAIL

Farewell, personhood initiative.

Personhood Nevada face a Tuesday deadline to collect more than 72,000 signatures to place the proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot.

Organizers told The Associated Press on Friday that they will not meet the signature threshold.

The amendment called "The Right to Live for Young and Old" sought to define life as beginning at conception and prohibit some forms of birth control, fertility treatments when selective reduction is used, and embryonic stem cell research.

This isn't the first time that the "Call the Zygotes People" Initiative failed to make the ballot, but this may very well be the last time that anyone takes them seriously. Especially ever since women's reproductive freedom was enshrined in the Nevada Constitution twenty years ago, voters here have had no appetite for attacking that. And apparently, the recent Mitt Romney/Dean Heller/Joe Heck/"tea party" "War on Women" has done nothing but hurt Nevada Republicans.

So I'm not too surprised that the personhood initiative failed to qualify for the ballot. Frankly, it's just funny to see how the voters themselves scuttled it by declining to sign the petition. Ouch. I wonder if this is finally what it takes to get G-O-TEA politicians to realize that there's no value in attacking women's rights.

Pahrump... WTF??!!

If you ever thought city/town council meetings are incredibly boring, then you've clearly never been to Pahrump.

About 30 members of the Nye County Republican Central Committee led the charge to make a citizen's arrest on three town board members after voting to repeal a town ordinance passed years ago.

Attorneys say Pahrump Town Ordinance 46 is unconstitutional because it restricts power of future town boards, and so they put the issue on the agenda to repeal it. Members of the NCRCC say that is illegal because it should have been put to a public vote. Town leaders voted anyway, and that's when meeting turned to melee.

Bill Carns led the charge, as NCRCC members tried to make a citizen's arrest on board members Harley Kulkin, Tom Waters and Vicky Parker. When Nye County Sheriff Deputies refused, the group tried to make citizen arrests on deputies themselves.

Board Chair Vicky Parker says the group has been disruptive before.

"This is just the first time they decided to arrest us," she said. "It was bullying, it was threats, intimidation, harassment."

At first, this looks like downright lunacy. And to a large extent, it really is. Last I checked, one actually needs to present evidence of criminal wrongdoing to make an arrest.

However, I can also see the real frustration behind this week's melee... And why it was finally unleashed.

Not that long ago, Pahrump was just a sparsely populated rural outpost far from any bustling metropolis. Now, it's a town of over 36,000 people that's increasingly looking like an exurb of the Las Vegas metropolitan area that's now topping 2,000,000 people. And now, Pahrump actually has a larger population than (incorporated cities) Boulder City and Mesquite combined.

Fifty years ago, Pahrump didn't even have telephone service! But especially in the last two decades, people have been flocking here seeking a "simpler", more bucolic life. And while there may still be some wide open space now, even that's been changing as more housing and commercial developments are approved. Really, this once rural outpost in the middle of nowhere is increasingly looking like an exurb.

And I can see why many folks there are becoming frustrated. They went to Pahrump looking for "the libertarian ideal". However, they found a community experiencing serious growing pains.

While the surface issue looks to be an ordinance prohibiting the pursuit of cityhood, I suspect there's more beneath the surface. And until Pahrump residents decide whether they want to save their rural way of life or continue growing into a full fledged Las Vegas suburb, there will likely be more of these problems going forward.

I just find it funny how the Nye County Republican Central Committee is butting into this dispute. They supposedly favor "limited government" and "individual rights", yet they're supporting a measure meant to limit peoples' First Amendment free speech rights. Oh, the irony!

But again, this may not be the last time we see this kind of explosion in Pahrump.

NV-04: Baby Tark's Delusions of Grandeur

Last night, newly minted NV-04 G-O-TEA Nominee Danny Tarkanian went on "Face to Face" to beg Jon Ralston to take his campaign seriously.



Fortunately for "Baby Tark", he also got a boost from a local Las Vegas "newspaper" trying hard to make NV-04 look like a Tossup race that Tark can win. Here's why they're wrong.

Barbara Cegavske may be gone, but "Baby Tark" looks to be inheriting her delusions of grandeur. After all, he thinks his last name entitles him to high elected office. He preaches "fiscal responsibility", but he refuses to practice what he preaches. And he really wants to debate the issues... Except when he doesn't.

Seriously, could there be a more shallow candidate than Danny Tarkanian? What does he have to offer other than his last name? Not even Clark County Republicans were impressed.

And then, there's Tark's continuing loyalty to the Romney-Heller-Heck "tea party" agenda. It's not looking all that popular overall here in Nevada, so he has a problem. Eventually, he'll need to get beyond calling President Obama and Steven Horsford "poopy heads" and actually explain why he supports bailouts for billionaires over investment in public education, green jobs, health care, and transportation infrastructure that can help stabilize and diversify Nevada's economy. And really, he needs to better explain why he's running for Congress. Until he does that, he's just engaging in meaningless delusions of grandeur.

Why Are Nevada Democrats So Happy?

In case last weekend's love fest wasn't upbeat enough for you, here's some scenery from last night's @NVDems Henderson coordinated campaign office grand opening.



And surprise, surprise, we saw some famous faces there. Both Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera were there to celebrate their primary wins, and Dina Titus & Steven Horsford came to join in the good times as well. All in all, everyone seemed to be enjoying the good times.









But why, oh why, are they? After all, isn't Nevada such a brutal battleground swing state? Yes, although it's increasingly looking like the battle is happening within the Republican Party.

PPP's newest Nevada poll shows Obama ahead once again. And again, it looks like PPP is understating Obama's strength with a fairly conservative sample. Despite all the money Mitt Romney and his allies are spending here, he just can't catch a break.

That also spells trouble for Republicans down ballot. Since both Dean Heller and Joe Heck have tied themselves to the Romney-"tea party" agenda, the fate of their political careers likely lies with Romney's chances here. And since Romney's chances here in Nevada are increasingly looking lousy, they're running scared.

And it looks like Nevada Democrats won't let them hide. Later this week, that new Henderson office will be activating with phone bankers and canvassers. There will be plenty of field activity happening, field activity that should last all the way to November 6. And this will be complementing all the field work that OFA Nevada is doing.

This may really be Nevada Democrats' "secret weapon" that puts Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford over the top. But shhhh, don't tell the Republicans about it. Oh wait, that's right. They're too busy jumping sharks to even care.

Nevada Primary Recap

To a large extent, we didn't see too many surprises last night. Both Shelley Berkley and Dean Heller won their respective primaries for US Senate, as did John Oceguera in NV-03. Yep, everything seemed to go smoothly and as planned...

Except it didn't.




While Danny Tarkanian ultimately prevailed in NV-04, he did so only narrowly... And only narrowly over the underfunded Barbara Cegavske. And in another embarrassing blow to "Baby Tark", he lost to Cegavske in Clark County! Oh yes, that's right. Barbara Cegavske actually beat "Lil' Tark Shark" in the territory where his last name is golden, and he needed the rurals to save his sorry behind.

And in the Legislature, we saw some dramatic upheaval. In AD 39 in rural Northern Nevada, incumbent Assembly Member Kelly Kite lost to "tea party" backed Jim Wheeler. While Kite was no moderate, he voted for last year's budget... Which still made him insufficiently conservative for the "tea party". In AD 9 in Southwest Vegas, GOP Establishment backed Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman narrowly lost to "some dude" Kelly Hurst. And in AD 35, which is just to the south of AD 9, Adam Cegavske (Barbara's son) lost to "some dude" Tom Blanchard.

And then, there's SD 1.

Michael Flores, who helped organize the opposition to [John] Lee, said liberals were motivated to oust Lee after the last legislative session, when he pushed a controversial bill to allow guns on college campuses and succeeded in pushing through another bill that could pave the way for more development around Lake Tahoe.

“Last session was really ugly,” Flores said. “We couldn’t sit around and let nothing happen. We couldn’t sit around and not follow through on our threat.” [...]

Lee had, for a time, been running for Congress, against Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford. But when Lee dropped out of that race and ran for re-election, he quickly earned the full-throttled support of the Democratic Party establishment.

Even such groups that had tangled with him in Carson City, like the state teacher’s union and AFL-CIO — the traditional Democratic political muscle — remained neutral in the race, instead of opposing him.

Who could have guessed? Who could have guessed?

This was the first time that the Netroots/Grassroots Left organized to unseat an incumbent Democratic legislator for voting too far to the right. And since John Lee had quite the conservative record for representing a safe Democratic seat, progressives seized on the opportunity to correct that. And despite all the money spent by Lee and the support he received from the Democratic Establishment and the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce, Lee only managed to score 37% yesterday against military veteran, college lecturer, ordained minister, and out lesbian Pat Spearman. And interestingly enough, voters soured on Lee because of his opposition to progressive goals like marriage equality, fair taxation, reproductive rights, and good environmental stewardship.

While Nevada has become accustomed to seeing bloody primaries on the right, this is the first time that we saw a successful challenge from the left. And this probably won't be the last time.

All in all, we had an interesting night here in The Silver State last night. And later this week, I'll explain how this affects the general election.

Primary Night Liveblog

So it's finally over. Now, the results are coming in. By the way, you can check the results here. I'll be coming back with updates whenever I can.

Oh, and in case you forgot, here's a cheat sheet of all the expected hot primaries. Stay tuned to see if we run into any surprises tonight.

7:45 PM-

Whoa! The early voting numbers are now in, and here's what's happening:

- In NV-04, Barbara Cegavske is starting with a tight 30-28 lead over Danny Tarkanian. If this holds, then Baby Tark's political career really is over!

- In SD 1, Pat Spearman is leading 60-40.

So plenty of upsets already brewing! I'll check in again soon for another update.

8:50 PM-

Say hi to Future Senator Pat Spearman! With not too many election day votes to count, it looks like John Lee is getting crushed in a HUGE upset! Despite Lee's big financial advantage, his political career may finally be ending tonight. What a way to go.

John Oceguera, on the other hand, is now in for the fight of his life. He easily cleared the NV-03 Democratic primary with just over 50%, so now he's moving on to challenging Joe Heck in the general election.

And we're still waiting on NV-04 GOP. Last I checked, Danny Tarkanian just took the lead... But it's still super close. We may be up for quite a while before we figure out who won.

9:55 PM-

Or maybe not. As more rural precincts report, Baby Tark seems to hold onto his lead. He may yet win the primary... And win the right to lose to Steven Horsford in the general.

Meanwhile, SD 18 will come down to Democrat Kelli Ross and Republican Scott Hammond. In that race, the establishment(s) prevailed. Same goes in SD 9, as Mari St. Martin is pulling ahead in the GOP primary.

However, the Dem establishment is getting embarrassed in SD 1 as Pat Spearman has a 63-37 commanding lead over incumbent John Lee. And in AD 39, incumbent Republican Kelly Kite is losing to "tea party" backed upstart Jim Wheeler. Again, strange things happen in low turnout primaries.

What a Fool Believes: Nevada GOP Leader Can't Practice What He Preaches.

Whoops. Nevada Republicans should not be proud of their Chairman making news like this.

The letter, which I have obtained [...], is to be sent to Hilary Lopez, who is in charge of federal programs with the state. McDonald and his "consultant" Frank Hawkins need the state tax credits to make the deal work that was approved by the council in April with a gift of $4 million to get them started. McDonald has failed before at a similar project and defaulted on it.

In the missive that McDonald is asking council members to sign, he is essentially asking for a personal endorsement, something I'd guess City Attorney Brad Jerbic will not be too likely to advise them to do. The letter says McDonald's company "and its development team is (sic) the correct choice to see it to completion." And this: "It would be a tragedy to the area to allow this development to fall through." A tragedy! I'd say a tragedy beyond words. And this bizarre final line that the council folks are supposed to endorse: "Finally, I fully support this project and the choice of (McDonald's company) to complete this development and ask that they (sic) be allowed to compete for the available tax credits without the incursion of politics."

I am sure Ms. Lopez will be thrilled to read that last line.

Forget the arrogance of a "developer" asking an elected official to sign a letter you have written for them — although that is hard to forget. There is simply no way all the members sign that letter as is. Just a guess.

Yep. This is not the kind of headline news that Nevada Republicans want to make.

However, they really should have known this was coming. After all, even the "tea party" cheerleaders at NPRI called out Michael McDonald for his love of corporate welfare. And really, isn't today's Nevada Republican Party supposed to embody those "tea party" principles of limited government and personal responsibility?

No wonder why the Nevada Republican Party is such a train wreck now. One leads by example. And yes, Michael McDonald is setting quite the example for his "tea party" fans to follow.

Where's the limited government? Where's the personal responsibility? And for that matter, where are the ethics? Oh, what a fool believes.

What's About to Happen Tonight?

Get ready for a a very bumpy ride tonight. And perhaps the biggest and baddest ride of them all will be the NV-04 G-O-TEA primary.

Republicans believe they may have a chance, given that a portion of the district is Republican rural Nevada, which turns out more consistently than urban, Democratic Clark County. Also, they believe they have effective attacks against Horsford.

But first, Republicans need a nominee.

The GOP has had a heated primary for the seat. Competing are Danny Tarkanian, a businessman and son of UNLV legend Jerry Tarkanian; state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, a conservative veteran of Carson City; and Dan Schwartz, a businessman who spent thousands of dollars from his own wealth on his campaign.

And then there’s perennial candidate Kenneth Wegner, who has neither raised nor spent money. But polls show he is competitive.

If he wins in this election where his opponents have attacked each other, a word of advice: Ignore just about everything you read from political parties, pundits and reporters. We know nothing.

Republicans think they have a shot against Steven Horsford, but their thinking is increasingly looking like delusions of grandeur. Really, take a look at these candidates. Danny Tarkanian has name recognition like hardly any other Vegas politician, Barbara Cegavske has a host of Carson City insider connections, and Dan Schwartz has a crapload of money. Yet for all their supposed strengths, this primary has exposed them all as fairly weak candidates. Whoever wins this primary won't have an easy hoe in the general.


And of course, that's not the only game in town tonight. In fact, there are several key Legislature primaries on both sides to watch. On the Republican side, SD 9 in Southwest Vegas has turned incredibly contentious as "tea party" backed Brent Jones and his friends have turned increasingly personal in attacking GOP Establishment backed Mari St. Martin. Also on the Republican side, SD 18 has been an ideological tour de force between Establishment backed Scott Hammond and "tea party" backed Jonathan McArthur.

And then, there's the big Democratic contest progressives across the state will be watching. Blue Dog State Senator John Lee is facing progressive challenger Patricia Spearman in what's perhaps the toughest fight in all of John Lee's political career. Regardless of the final results tonight, John Lee's future will be far different from what any of us had originally imagined. And going forward, progressives will be more emboldened to take on conservatives in the future.

In addition, we have plenty of hot Assembly races that will be determined today. All in all, today will be quite eventful... Even if most primary voters have already done so. In fact, that's the real wild card that will decide a number of politicians' fates tonight.