Saturday, October 15, 2011

More on Court's Proposed Congressional Districts

(Image courtesy of Las Vegas Sun)

So I played with the numbers last night to get a better sense of the political state of play in redistricting. Now that Judge Russell and his special masters have given us districts, we can get a better sense of who will end up with what. Here are my rough estimates of the partisan makeup of each district after drawing each one as close to reality as possible on Dave's Redistricting App:

NV-01 (Urban Las Vegas):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 42%

Democrats who live here- Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen

Republican who lives here- Barbara Cegavske

Race Rating- Safe Democratic

NV-02 (Reno-Carson/Northern Nevada):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Democrats who live here- Kate Marshall, Jill Derby, Jessica Sferrazza

Republicans who live here- Mark Amodei, Sharron Angle

Race Rating- Leans Republican

NV-03 (Henderson, Southwest Vegas, & South Clark County):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Democrat who lives here- John Oceguera

Republicans who live here- Joe Heck, Elizabeth Halseth

Race Rating- Tossup

NV-04 (North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Northwest Vegas, & Central Nevada)

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Democrats who live here- Steven Horsford, John Lee, Larry Brown

Republicans who live here- Ed Goedhart, Shari Buck

Race Rating- Leans Democratic

So this is what we have so far: one solidly safe Democratic seat, one Democratic leaning seat, one tossup seat, and one Republican leaning seat. As it stands now, Nevada Democrats likely have at least two seats (NV-01 and NV-04) firmly in their pocket while Republicans have a good leg up in one seat (NV-02). NV-03 will probably be the barnburner that both sides will have to fiercely contest again.

1 comment:

  1. I agree with your general assessments. However, you don't need to live in your Congressional District to run for that seat. It'll be interesting to see how the NV01 and NV03 primaries shape up.