Why Shouldn't Nevada Have a Lottery? (Let Me Explain.)

Yesterday, we touched on both the threats and opportunities to Nevada posed by online gaming. Today, we need to look at another form of gambling that's been getting quite a bit of attention lately.



Northern Nevadans and Southern Nevadans are rushing to buy those "Mega Millions" tickets and catch "Lotto Fever". And we have our next door neighbors to thank for this.

"The amount of money we send to schools is a small drop in the bucket, everyone would admit that," Lopez said. "But during an economic downturn when school districts are looking at what they have to cut, every little bit helps."

Officials are projecting the lottery will provide more than $1 billion for public education in California this fiscal year. For the fiscal year 2010-11, California received $3.4 billion in lottery revenue. The state returned about $1.1 billion of that to K-12 schools, community colleges and University of California and California State University systems.

So we all have a chance to live like the OC Housewives while schools get plenty of money. What's not to love? And why can't Nevada cash in on California's good fortune?

Bottom line: It's unconstitutional.

Yet despite our constitutional ban on state lotteries, many Nevadans are again talking up the possibility of bringing the "Mega Millions" here. Is it time to finally amend the constitution and start selling lottery tickets here in Nevada?

Not so fast. While forty states, including California, sell lottery tickets on the premise that more money will be going to public education, it's not really as simple as that. Earlier this year, there were questions of what's happening with money that the State of Florida has been netting from its lottery.



Looking back at California, here's what often happens with state lottery funds.

"That's a question that is frequently asked. A lot of people think [the state lottery] provides more revenues than it does," said Margaret Weston, an expert in K-12 school finance for the Public Policy Institute of California.

The state Lottery and its myriad games got started in 1985 as a way to generate funds for public education without adding another tax. It's one of the only state funds that are doled out equally to everyone. At least 50 percent of tickets sales go back to the public as prizes. Public schools get about 34 percent of revenue from sales.

Each school gets $135 per student, though they pass it out in different ways. The peak of Lottery funding for kindergarten through 12th grade hit during the 2005-06 school year. The average each year hovers between $40 to $45 billion, less than two percent of the state's public school funding. [...]

Students at Millswood Middle School use their daily planners to keep track of homework and assignments. Funds from the California Lottery provided the $4,000 to dole them out at the beginning of the school year.

"We receive a whopping $8,000 from Lottery funds. Half of that is spent on the school planners the students get at the beginning of the school year. The other approximately $4,000 was spent on a teacher computer and projector," wrote Sheree Flemmer, principal.

Now I'm sure it helps to have that extra change in school pockets to pay for things like daily planners and projectors. However, we have to realize that we're only talking about pocket change here. Lotteries are no panacea for public education.

In October 2007, The New York Times investigated state lotteries and found that, on average, they only deliver about 30 cents for every dollar spent on tickets and games.

For years, those states have heard complaints that not enough of their lottery revenue is used for education. Now, a New York Times examination of lottery documents, as well as interviews with lottery administrators and analysts, finds that lotteries accounted for less than 1 percent to 5 percent of the total revenue for K-12 education last year in the states that use this money for schools.

In reality, most of the money raised by lotteries is used simply to sustain the games themselves, including marketing, prizes and vendor commissions. And as lotteries compete for a small number of core players and try to persuade occasional customers to play more, nearly every state has increased, or is considering increasing, the size of its prizes — further shrinking the percentage of each dollar going to education and other programs.

In some states, lottery dollars have merely replaced money for education. Also, states eager for more players are introducing games that emphasize instant gratification and more potentially addictive forms of gambling.

And so far, it doesn't look like that's changed for the better. Rather, as state lotteries have pumped even more money into building up "Mega Millions" style jackpots and promoting them with ever flashier TV, radio, and billboard ads, the overhead costs are quickly gobbling up money that was originally promised to fund K-12 schools and college education.

Let's go back to my old stomping grounds in "The OC" for a moment and see how local schools are looking forward to that huge lottery windfall.

In Orange County, the lottery provided an additional $135 per student for K-12 schools last school year. The county received a total of $88.6 million from lottery revenue last year, or about 1.2 percent of the $4.2 billion local schools spend annually. Local schools are expecting to cut more than $250 million combined from their budgets for next year alone, on top of the more than $1 billion cut since 2008.

"I want the whole $540 million jackpot all for Orange County. That would really solve all our funding problems," county Superintendent William Habermehl said. "The lottery has never really provided as much money to schools as what was sold to the public when it was implemented. If you look at all 6 million students in California, an extra $100 million will only give you a few extra dollars per student."

Yes, that's really all California is getting when Nevadans line up in Primm and Verdi to cross the state line and buy their "Mega Millions" tickets. Perhaps a school in Lodi will get to buy a few more boxes of day planners, and perhaps another school in Costa Mesa will get to buy a computer. That's really it.

So before we again hear another round of complaints on why Nevada doesn't have a state lottery, remember this. At least with our state sanctioned gambling, the casinos have to pay for their own advertising and their own upkeep. But when the state becomes the casino, we flip the bill and we don't always win the jackpot we were looking for.

Sure, the likes of MGM Resorts CEO Jim Murren are looking out for their own bottom line. But again, under the current system MGM pays to run its own casinos. And considering that we've already had to learn the hard way that casinos alone won't save our economy or our schools, should we really expect a state lottery to solve our budget problems?

Nevada Past... California Future?

This weekend, we've been seeing plenty of reflection on the life and legacy of Bill Raggio. The RGJ's Ray Hagar perhaps summed it up best.

As Nevada mourns the death of the “Lion of the Legislature,” some also mourn the end of an era, when bipartisanship ruled the day.

Nevada’s legislative process has gone from one of compromise to polarization, experts said. Raggio’s death only enforces the point.

“It’s been bad for a couple of sessions,” said former Assembly Speaker Joe Dini, D-Yerington, who began is legislative career in 1967 and ended it after the 2002 special session on medical malpractice. “I don’t know if will be any worse than it has been. I don’t think it will get any better.” [...]

“Clearly, that had a lot to do with it (resignation), the fact that Bill Raggio was a man who would set aside partisanship for the greater good,” said Billy Vassiliadis, a Nevada political consultant based in Las Vegas.

“He worked with three Democratic governors and three Republican governors and always worked in the spirit of getting something done,” Vassiliadis said. “And today, politics puts a premium on stopping things rather than making things happen. To stand in place rather than move forward was something he could not abide in.”

It's certainly something no one can deny at this point. And this is something we've been talking about here for quite some time. And at times, it seemed like Bill Raggio really came from a different era and represented the kind of politicking and governing that Nevada has been quickly losing. I really think Jon Ralston hit the nail on the head here.

In his later days, Raggio frequently lamented the propensity for Republicans to bow to the Temple of Norquist, pledging fealty to a no-tax pledge when circumstances could always change. In a world of one-note politicians, Raggio was operatic, often giving floor speeches that were the equivalent of arias. Indeed, one lobbyist, marveling at a Raggio performance, looked at me and said, “Like Pavarotti at the Met.”

Raggio also railed against those who only cared about re-election, a common affliction in Carson City, fearing they would never help move the state forward. As ex-Sen. Paul Laxalt said Friday, “Throughout my political career, I adhered to a policy of not allowing political differences to transform into personal differences. That was the essence of Bill Raggio. Sadly, that quality is sorely missing in today’s toxic political environment.”

I believe one of the more painful decisions of Raggio’s career was to endorse Harry Reid for re-election in 2010. Yes, he was furious that Sharron Angle had challenged him in a primary, but it was much more than personal. He thought she would be a disaster for the state, so he endorsed whom he considered the lesser off two evils.

There was nothing in it for him — he knew the blowback would be vicious, although I doubt he knew he would lose his leadership position because of his craven colleagues, some of whom I would bet a fortune voted for Reid but were afraid to say so.

A man of his word? Yes. A man of principle? Indeed. A man for all seasons, especially every other winter and spring in Carson City? Absolutely.

Perhaps none of Carson City's powers that be was surprised by Raggio's final act in 2010, but a whole lot of political junkies outside Nevada were. After all, why would someone of Raggio's stature do that to his own party? It's something that would be unheard of anywhere except Nevada...

But will we ever see something like that here in Nevada again?

Throw the party's base supporters some choice red meat... and risk that persuadable voters who tune into the media coverage recoil. But tamp down the fiery rhetoric in hopes of projecting a "kinder, gentler" image... and risk leaving the party faithful full of accusations that moderates are trying to water down the GOP brand.

'Tis a dilemma to be sure.

That's what's been happening just south of San Francisco, where California Republicans have been holding their convention. Newt Gingrich showed up yesterday to rally the base with cries of, "Drill, Baby, Drill!!!" And yes, reporters and observers there may have caught a glimpse of the Nevada Republican Party's future.

We've definitely seen a rightward shift of GOP legislators in recent sessions... And that really seemed to accelerate once Bill Raggio left Carson City for good. And now because of what's become endless intransigence on implementing long term budget solutions, some are now pushing for voters to take matters into our own hands. However, that isn't without its own risks.

The Field Poll showed the strongest backing for the tax hike on millionaires, with 63% of voters saying they were inclined to vote yes. Next came Brown's proposal, a temporary half-cent sales tax increase combined with higher income taxes on the wealthy, which drew 58% support.

But voters appear to reject a broad-based income tax hike proposed by wealthy Los Angeles civil rights lawyer Molly Munger, which received only 45% support, with 48% opposed. All three initiatives are in the signature-gathering phase before they can be placed on the November ballot.

The results roughly parallel a poll that Brown's political aides released in summary form this week. That showed Brown's proposal and the proposed levy on millionaires both with more than 50% support, while Munger's languished. Brown's aides also tested whether voters would support the taxes if all three appeared on the ballot and found in that scenario none would pass.

That's been the argument the governor and his aides have been pushing for three months now -- that Munger and the unions and activists who back the millionaire's tax need to drop their measures so they don't doom all of them.

But backers of the millionaire's tax seemed emboldened by the newest poll that continued to show theirs as the most popular. Nonetheless, the governor's aides and allies continued to urge others to back down.

Yes, believe it or not, California is also providing us with this glimpse into Nevada's future. There, Governor Jerry Brown (D) is pushing his own tax initiative that raises the income tax on top earners while also keeping in place a hike of the state's sales tax. However, he's now getting competition from both civil rights attorney Molly Munger's broad-based income tax and Courage Campaign's "Millionaires Tax". For so long, California's Legislature couldn't agree to much of any tax reform. But now, they're seeing an increasingly complicated and messy "ballot royale" over the competing tax initiatives.

And guess what? That's where we also seem to be headed... Except that I'm hoping we won't see an ugly food fight that pulls down all the tax reform initiatives. Instead, I want to do my part to inform and enlighten Nevada voters by starting a discussion this week on tax reform, ballot initiatives, and the future of Nevada Government. I'll be starting tomorrow by sharing with you a conversation I recently had with Kermitt Waters... Yes, the Kermitt Waters with the law suit causing so many Nevada politicos' heads to explode. Later this week, I'll also be posting conversations with those backing Nevada AFL-CIO whiz Danny Thompson's business margin tax initiative. Who knows, maybe we'll even dig more into Monte Miller's tax proposal?

As I've been saying here for some time, we in Nevada have to prepare for serious change. Since we first heard the saddening news of Bill Raggio's passing, we've been reflecting plenty on what's already been changing. And while I don't believe we're destined to become a carbon copy of California (or Arizona, or Colorado, or any other state, for that matter), we can no longer deny that both the dynamics of legislating in Carson City and the increasing frustration of Nevada voters outside Carson City are leading us to consider something never before seen here, even if it's something California and Arizona regularly see: ballot box budgeting.

There's obviously a reason why so many are so devastated by the loss of Raggio. In many ways, this does feel like the end of an era. But now if progressives want to embark on a new era and fix what's become regularly broken, then we may really need to rethink how we've advocated tax and budget reform. It may finally be time to face the voters, and face our future.

10 of 11: In the Capitol... And from California to Here

Yesterday, I hinted at the strange dynamics of state government this year. Believe it or not, Nevada wasn't accustomed to the hurly burly of intense, combative, highly partisan "contact sport" politics... Until this year. Yes, for a moment it looked like Nevadans' worst nightmares were coming true and we really were turning into California (albeit led by the radical right that supposedly hates our next door neighbors so much).

Yep, that's right. Republicans here always make scary comments about this state becoming some sort of "Little California", but their very obstruction on the budget and diabolical brinksmanship games with state government are turning us into California!

Sometimes, I really do wonder if Republican legislators are spending time that should be used working on a budget deal to instead study up on how California Republicans have turned Sacramento into an endless game of "Mortal Combat"... Where the folks who get killed off are kids in need of education, and seniors & disabled in need of health care. Read Calitics' budget diaries and notice the strange air of familiarity to them.

It seems like both at the federal level and in other states, Republicans are exporting the California model of obstructing their way to broken government to the rest of the country.

However, I still sensed something different. When I arrived in the capital city myself, I saw it with my own eyes.

There really is an intriguing game of political chess happening in Carson City right now. Democratic leadership is figuring out where to find the votes to pass an actual balanced budget, and Republican leadership is trying to find "cover" so they can provide enough votes for a budget that won't anger "we the people" too much.

I had a chance to talk with three of my favorite legislators this week on what's happening up north. My Senator, Shirley Breeden (D-Henderson),is busy doing her "homework", studying the numbers, and pressing for a final budget that keeps kids in school and keeps our hope for a better economy alive. David Parks (D-Paradise) is working hard on a number of LGBTQ equality bills (that you will be hearing more from me on soon!) and hopes for agreement on these as well as the budget. And as part of the new wave of Latin@ legislators providing some much needed representation in Carson, Ruben Kihuen is already off to an amazing start in The Senate... He even expressed some hope that his fellow legislators, especially on The Senate side, can work together this session.

Interestingly enough, there may actually be some opportunities for just that. That Republican legislator I spoke with was willing to keep an open mind on AB 211, the transgender inclusive workplace non-discrimination bill. Another Republican legislator apparently expressed concern over Sandoval's proposed budget cuts this week, and signaled support for the LGBTQ equality bills. And even though GOP leadership are playing "hard to get" right now in demanding some of the same union busting run amok in Wisconsin and Michigan, they may also be realizing that they can only ask for so much, and that it may not be too smart to antagonize working Nevadans when they've already sacrificed plenty and are ready to share in even more sacrifice this year.

Hopefully, what I saw behind the scenes in Carson City this week are real signs of hope that our Legislature will be working on actual solutions that will make Nevada an even better state. The "sausage making process" may be messy, but let's keep pushing them to ensure the final product is safe for human consumption.

Well, at least the final product wasn't totally lethal. And thanks to a last minute court decision, the logjam was finally broken. And looking beyond the budget, we did score big victories on the LGBTQ equality front with legislation passed to address housing discrimination, school bullying, public accommodations for all, and a long desired win for transgender equality at work. That was the major bright spot that at least somewhat made up for the idiotic Trash Tahoe bill, the ugly continuing attacks on our public servants, and the ridiculous final state budget that was yet another pile of patches, band-aids, and "quick fixes" that are destined to combust all over again in 2013 (if not sooner).

But funny enough, the postscript is still being written. And coming around full circle, Californication may indeed continue next year... But this time, it may actually be for the better. I'll leave you with these words from June, which may yet come to fruition on our ballots next year.

Either way, Nevada's governance will start to look a lot more like California's, and more like other Western states (such as Arizona) that have become accustomed to partisan turf wars, ballot box budgeting, and "direct democracy gone wild". It's now a question of whether Nevada will keep sputtering on its way to the bottom, or if progressives can turn this around and take advantage of this unique opportunity to inject more common sense into our state government. The days of Kenny Guinn and Barbara Buckley and Bill Raggio making "grand bargains" seem to be long gone. Term limits are taking away experienced legislators. Meanwhile, the power vacuum is being filled by corporate lobbyists, party central committees, and other outside forces.

So what can we do? In the long term, I still believe it's in our best interest that progressives work toward reforming state government to make it more responsive to the people and less beholden to special corporate interests. But in the mean time, we can't wait on the sidelines for the next [year] while Nevada's people continue to suffer inadequate public education, health care, transportation, and other infrastructure necessary to make our state whole again.

So now, we have to ask ourselves not whether and when we will go to the ballot and ask the people to save our state, but how we will do so and who we will build coalitions with. Should we work with gaming and mining on a broad-based business tax? Should we work with other progressive activists on a corporate income tax? Should we push for some sort of mining tax reform? 2012 may seem like a long hike away, but it really isn't [especially with the Presidential Caucuses right around the corner and just a month away for Democrats!]. We need to start planning now to take the first necessary steps to save our state and bring real progressive reform to Nevada government.

Californication... Is Here?

Here we go again. Republicans scream when Shelley Berkley tries to talk sense into them.

“I’m very careful not to criticize people in this room,” Berkley said, noting the debate that stretched almost until midnight on Tuesday. “But in my mind, gutting our education system is shortchanging our children and almost as importantly as that, it is undermining our ability to diversify our economy.”

Sandoval attended the speech but was unavailable after to give a reaction to Berkley’s comments.

Talking to reporters after her speech, Berkley said lawmakers can’t let revenue challenges deprive “an entire generation of people” of an education and stressed the importance of diverting federal dollars into Nevada’s education system.

And The Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce (!!!) tries to do the same.

Seems the conservative folks over at Keystone Corporation are not happy that the supposedly conservative folks over at the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce are open to tax increases if certain reforms are enacted, that the chamber believes the budget cuts are deep and severe.

So they're out to sic Bob List on them? Wait, isn't he already busy trying to shove nuclear waste down our throats?

Wait a minute... Haven't we been down this road before? And is this getting way too familiar?

But at bottom there’s still the same old question: How much pain and inconvenience will taxpayers have to suffer before they understand that there’s no such thing as a free lunch? How many potholes and unsafe bridges; how many cancelled university classes; how high the tuition; how short the school calendar; how slow the response from the fire department, how long the wait at the DMV? Or do we simply not care?

The [-----], said GOP Assembly leader [-----], is trying to scare people by trying to tell them that the budget deficit either requires even more severe cuts than the state has already made or the tax extensions the governor wants.

That’s a false choice, quoth [---], "It's disingenuous to scare people." You can fix it all with fiddles and efficiency. And pigs can fly.

The [------] and [---] fellow Democrats say they’re not trying to scare people, just going to tell the facts, though he’s also said -- as he did at a meeting of the Service Employees International Union the other day -- that the worst case scenario [meaning no tax extensions] would be really ugly. He also says he’s going to focus on Republican districts and is urging his backers to “hug” a Republican. That’s not quite like saying kiss a frog, hoping he’ll turn back into a prince, but close enough.

[-------], the president pro-tem of the Senate, meanwhile, is saying he won’t support closing all of the remaining $15 billion budget gap with just cuts alone.

These blanks can easily be filled with the likes of Pete Goicoechea and Mark Sherwood on the GOP side, and by Steven Horsford and Sheila Leslie on the Democratic side. But guess what? It's an article about California's budget crisis!

Yep, that's right. Republicans here always make scary comments about this state becoming some sort of "Little California", but their very obstruction on the budget and diabolical brinksmanship games with state government are turning us into California!

Sometimes, I really do wonder if Republican legislators are spending time that should be used working on a budget deal to instead study up on how California Republicans have turned Sacramento into an endless game of "Mortal Combat"... Where the folks who get killed off are kids in need of education, and seniors & disabled in need of health care. Read Calitics' budget diaries and notice the strange air of familiarity to them.

It seems like both at the federal level and in other states, Republicans are exporting the California model of obstructing their way to broken government to the rest of the country.

So why are they obstructing? Why are they willing to drive Nevada off the cliff, California-style? As always, Desert Beacon has the answer.

Truth be told, federal income taxes on the American middle class are now at an historically low level. [CBPP] This begs the question, if federal taxes on middle income Americans are at an historically low level, and the Nevada "tax burden" is one of the lowest in the nation especially as measured by "business climate" criteria [TTF]  -- then who is doing all the whining?

The answer to that question should be relatively apparent by now: Corporate Interests and Upper Income Earners. Thus, we are not speaking of "taxing people out of their homes," (middle income earners having the lowest rate since Presley was singing "That's All Right Mama"), and we're not speaking to "taxing people out of their businesses" (if indeed the Tax Foundation is correct and Nevada is ranked 4th in the nation in business climate).  Assemblyman Livermore, and his GOP cohorts, are evidently more concerned with the revenue side of the corporate world than with the revenue side of the state government balance sheet.  There's no particular reason that the Assembly debate on the state budget would end any other way than in a stalemate  [LVSun] since Republicans like Assemblyman [Pete] Livermore (R-Carson City) have adopted an ideological stance at variance with economic reality.  When the mantra "No New Taxes" morphs into "No Taxes At All" it's hard to move the discussion forward.

What makes the argument about "taxing people from their homes and businesses" ultimately risible is the drift of the tax burden away from the ultra-wealthy in this country toward middle income Americans: "This diminished tax burden on the wealthiest has contributed to the historically low federal revenue levels we are seeing today, and in turn, to higher deficits. The Congressional Budget Office projects federal revenue in 2011 will total 14.8% of GDP—the lowest level since 1950. At the same time that the tax burden has shifted away from the wealthy, this same top income group has enjoyed  massively disproportionate income gains.  Between 1992 and 2007, a time in which income for the average household and top one percent grew 13% and 123%, respectively, the income for the top 400 households grew fully 399%." [EPI ]

It's really about ideology. California Republicans do it all the time and try to get away with it by hiding behind undemocratic supermajority rules and procedures, and Nevada Republicans now look to be doing the same.

However, the ending hasn't yet been written for this "True Hollywood Story".

"Our review (of Gov. Brian Sandoval's budget) has led us to believe additional tax revenue may be necessary," wrote Hugh Anderson, chair of the Government Affairs Committee in a letter released this afternoon. "However, let me be clear: The Chamber's willingness to support additional tax revenue is absolutely dependent on the passage this year of significant and meaningful reforms that will fix systemic problems that are plaguing our state."

The Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce has been seen as key to providing political cover for Republicans in the Assembly and Senate. Democrats need at least some support to pass a tax increase. [...]

Anderson laid out the effect of some of Sandoval's proposed cuts. It said class sizes would increase in grades 1 to 12 by two students, on average. It also said school district personnel would take a 7.8 percent pay reduction. It said core degrees would be eliminated from higher education.

If even The Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce (!!!) is willing to come to the table and support badly needed revenues to keep our state alive, then Republicans need to be brought to the table. And as I said yesterday, this is the part where we go in and take them there.

Kiss Your Assets Goodbye?

(Also at OC Progressive)

I must say it's been interesting seeing "what happens in Vegas" in the last month. However, I don't really get this.

Are California’s lawmakers pigs?

A new video campaign designed to draw businesses unhappy with California to relocate to Southern Nevada portrays lawmakers as morphing into pigs.

It is being launched by Nevada Development Authority, which has tried other ad campaigns in the past with the same goal, but not featuring the actions of the California Legislature.

The NDA says it’s sure many California businesses are considering relocation due to the state's current troubles.

The campaign stresses that business owners pay no corporate or personal income tax in Nevada and have much lower workers' compensation rates.

According to The Las Vegas Sun, our local ABC station (KABC 7) has already refused to run any of the Nevada Development Authority ads. (Btw, The Sun also has all the ad videos should you want to watch them.) I wouldn't be surprised if more California stations also turn down these ads. While it may be a great PR stunt to lure businesses from one troubled state to another, it does both a great disservice.

Why? It continues to push the false meme of "overtaxed businesses needing to flee California". It's offensive enough for the NDA to call California lawmakers "pigs" and "monkeys", but I'm even further offended by their lack of knowledge on the real reasons why the state is failing. All they had to do was read here or Calitics to see that corporate tax loopholes, property tax laws that favor big corporations, 2/3 budget rules, and other fiscal deforms are the culprits bringing the state down! Trust me. I just moved here from California, so I know what's really wrong with the state.

And frankly, they're not doing Nevada a favor, either. Yes, I said it. Nevada is also victim to a failed tax structure that depends on regressive sales taxes (especially in times like these with casino revenue down) as the big corporations enjoy even more tax loopholes and the mining industry pays virtually no taxes! Nevada has suffered massive budget woes this year, so it baffles me why the state development agency would want to continue on this failed path by begging businesses to come here and perpetuate what's throwing us into fiscal chaos.

So kiss my assets goodbye? Nope, more like I'd rather not kiss a fool by buying into this unsustainable model of "no bidness taxes". It doesn't work in California and it doesn't work in Nevada, and both states really need to rethink their fiscal thinking.

I Told You So.

See why huge cuts to the social safety net aren't the best way for a state to balance its budget? Just take a peek at what's happening next door.

On one hand, we learned that the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. expects per capita personal income in Orange County to drop for a second consecutive year as unemployment continues to rise and retail sales continue to fall. And on the other hand, OC home foreclosures are expected to continue rising. Basically, Orange County doesn't look to be exiting this recession quite yet.

It's just too bad that we can't expect more stimulus to help us soften the blow. Thanks to Arnold's "stimulus killer" budget, most of the economic benefits from the federal stimulus that are helping the rest of the country bottom out and turn around will be offset by the draconian state budget cuts. So once again, California will be losing out at the very least... Or may even hurt recovery efforts for the rest of the nation.

And unfortunately, the "bidness lobby" here in Nevada still doesn't get it. No matter how much they try to steal business from California by telling them how "high" taxes are, those of us who've seen the budget crisis there firsthand know what the problems really are. And honestly, same goes for Nevada.

So will we have enough legislators (and hopefully a sane Governor, too!) in office in 2011 to realize all this?

A Lesson to Learn for Nevada

I just wrote this for OC Progressive, but I think this should resonate here as well. We lucked out here in Nevada, to a certain extent. No one wanted Gibbons' Folly, so the main fight was over how much of a tax adjustment we'd get and how much the cuts would be.

But still, the accounting tricks and budget gimmicks can only last for so long. Ultimately, Nevada will have a "California Moment" where we'll either need to implement serious reform or face a full-on fiscal disaster. Whether Barbara Buckley or Rory Reid will be the final Democrat in the 2010 Governor's Election, he/she will need to serious talk about what the state must do in 2011 to avert a California-esque financial nightmare.

So with that being said, read this and take it as a warning:

It looks like a budget deal may finally be made. Yes, yes, I know I've been saying that for a while. But now, it really looks like Arnold is caving on eliminating CalWORKS as Democrats cave on stopping cuts-only madness. While it could have been even worse, this will nonetheless take the cake as a horrendous "deal" that will cause massive pain in many people's lives.

Arnold looks to be getting his desired enrollment cap on Healthy Families, California's S-CHIP program. While other states are actually expanding health care coverage for children of working families, kids will be turned away from the doctors' offices and health clinics here. Oh, and it gets worse. Home health care services for disabled people will be gutted. State parks may be closed. More state workers will be fired.

And you know what makes this even worse? We'll be paying for these cuts long into the future. Remember that it costs more to care for sick people in the emergency room than at the health clinic. It costs more to turn away tourists and day-trippers from state parks than to keep the parks open. It costs more to throw troubled kids in jail than to prevent future crime with good education and after-school programs.

So all in all, "Arnold's Folly" will deeply hurt all of us. And really, this isn't just his folly. Karen Bass [California's Democratic Assembly Speaker] and Darrell Steinberg [California's Democratic Senate Leader] must also share the blame for not doing more to present a progressive alternative. The corporate establishment also shares the blame for refusing to pay their fair share of taxes while still expecting giveaway after giveaway after giveaway. And ultimately, we the people also share the blame for living in la-la land for far too long in expecting all the amenities in the world and refusing to think about paying for any of them.

Thanks to the many silly gimmicks, false accounting, and empty rhetoric in "The Age of Arnold", "The California Dream" now looks to be nothing more than an illusion. Will we ever see it again?

The Reality of Bush-Arnold Era Shock Doctrine in California

(Originally at OC Progressive)

We need not look further than The Sacramento Bee's interactive map of California job losses to see how bad policies in Washington and Sacramento have really made an impact... In a negative way. Fortunately, there may be signs of life in other parts of the country as President Obama's stimulus spending finally starts to kick in here in Nevada and elsewhere. However, the federal stimulus will likely be offset next door in California by even more massive cuts to the very social safety net that's badly needed to survive a recession.

And with "Arnold Antoinette" pushing for even more brutal slashing of social safety net, California may very well face even worse economic conditions... And threatens to drag Nevada and the entire rest of the nation further down with it.