So what may a court drawn State Senate map look like? I take a spin at Dave's Redistricting App to see what's possible.
Let's start with Clark County. Because Clark is picking up one new Senate seat, I needed to contract the current seats while cleaning up all the grossly gerrymandered lines and finding space for the new district.
Here in Clark, we'll start with the North Las Vegas/Downtown Las Vegas/East Side (Paradise) urban core.
SD 01 (The Blue District)
Incumbent John Lee (D-North Las Vegas)
44.6% White CVAP, 25.6% Latino CVAP, 17.4% African-American CVAP, 8.9% Asian-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 61.8% Obama (D), 36.6% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 58% Harry Reid (D), 38% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 51% Rory Reid (D), 47% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 02 (The Green District)
Incumbent Mo Denis (D-North Las Vegas)
53.1% Latino CVAP, 28.1% White CVAP, 11.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 68.1% Obama (D), 29.5% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 64% Harry Reid (D), 31% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 57% Rory Reid (D), 39% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 10 (The Deep Pink District)
Incumbent Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas)
51.8% Latino CVAP, 29.9% White CVAP, 10.7% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 71.5% Obama (D), 25.7% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 68% Harry Reid (D), 27% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 61% Rory Reid (D), 36% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 03 (The Dark Magenta District)
Incumbents Valerie Wiener (D-Las Vegas) (termed out in 2012) and Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas)
35.8% White CVAP, 30.6% Latino CVAP, 23.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 72.0% Obama (D), 26.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 68% Harry Reid (D), 28% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 61% Rory Reid (D), 36% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 04 (The Red District)
Incument Mark Manendo (D-Paradise)?
44.0% White CVAP, 34.2% Latino CVAP, 9.8% Asian-American CVAP, 9.2% African-American CVAP
US-President 2008: 64.8% Obama (D), 32.8% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 61% Harry Reid (D), 35% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 54% Rory Reid (D), 43% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 07 (The Silver District)
Incumbent David Parks (D-Paradise)
46.6% White CVAP, 33.1% Latino CVAP, 9.2% African-American CVAP, 8.1% Asian-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 65.5% Obama (D), 32.0% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 62% Harry Reid (D), 34% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 55% Rory Reid (D), 42% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
As you can see, not much drama... Other than SD 07 being split into two districts (SD 04 and the new SD 07) and Valerie Wiener's old SD 03 being dismantled. Since the court will be drawing the lines this time, there's no chance of any gross gerrymanders or outrageous "dual districts". Yet despite the gimmickry (and Mark Manendo possibly having to move to keep his Senate seat), this very diverse section of the valley remains quite firmly in Democratic hands.
OK, then. Let's move to Summerlin, Spring Valley, and the west side of the valley.
SD 15 (The Dark Orange District)
Incumbent Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise)?
69.8% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 49.2%, McCain (R) 49.0%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 45%, Angle (R) 51%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Sandoval (R) 59%
Early Race Rating: Leans Republican
SD 14 (The Olive District)
Open Seat (See SD 04, incumbent Valerie Wiener termed out)
46.2% White CVAP, 34.4% Latino CVAP, 10.7% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 62.3%, McCain (R) 35.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 58%, Angle (R) 37%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 51%, Sandoval (R) 46%
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 06 (The Teal District)
Incument Allison Copening (D-Summerlin)
68.1% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 54.0% Obama (D), 44.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 50% Harry Reid (D), 45% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 43% Rory Reid (D), 54% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic
SD 08 (The Slate Blue District)
Open Seat (IncumentBarbara Cegavske [R-Summerlin] termed out in 2014)
63.3% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 54.0% Obama (D), 44.3% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 50% Harry Reid (D), 45% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 43% Rory Reid (D), 54% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Tossup
SD 11 (The Chartreuse District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Mike Schneider [D-Spring Valley] termed out in 2012)
47.4% White CVAP, 23.5% Latino CVAP, 16.7% Asian-American CVAP, 9.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 61.4% Obama (D), 36.3% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 57% Harry Reid (D), 38% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 50% Rory Reid (D), 46% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
SD 09 (The Cyan District)
Incumbent Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise)?
51.6% White CVAP, 23.2% Asian-American CVAP, 14.6% Latino CVAP, 7.0% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 58.9% Obama (D), 39.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 55% Harry Reid (D), 40% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 48% Rory Reid (D), 49% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic
As you can see, the fast growing west end of the valley makes some dramatic changes in redistricting. With both Valerie Wiener and Mike Schneider termed out, remnants of their old districts become minority-majority opportunity seats that will most likely provide opportunity for up-and-coming local Democrats. Meanwhile in Summerlin, incumbent Democrat Allison Copening keeps a district that she can probably win next year while soon-to-be-termed-out Republican Barbara Cegavske is doomed to leave behind a district that's a tossup at best and quickly trending Democratic. And even though newly minted Republican incumbent Elizabeth Halseth lives in The Southwest, she will probably prefer to run in the new and more GOP friendly Northwest district than face the new, diversifying, and more Democratic leaning Southwest district.
Now let's head back east and check in on the Silverado Ranch and Henderson area.
SD 13 (The Dark Salmon District)
Incumbent Michael Roberson (R-Henderson)
60.1% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 56.9% Obama (D), 41.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 53% Harry Reid (D), 42% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 46% Rory Reid (D), 51% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Tossup
SD 05 (The Gold District)
Incumbent Shirley Breeden (D-Henderson)
68.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 55.0% Obama (D), 43.1% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 51% Harry Reid (D), 44% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 44% Rory Reid (D), 53% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic
SD 12 (The Cornflower Blue District)
Incumbent Joe Hardy (R-Boulder City)
77.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 45.8% Obama (D), 52.1% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 43% Harry Reid (D), 52% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 35% Rory Reid (D), 62% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican
While my Senator, Shirley Breeden, loses some pockets of Democratic strength in Silverado Ranch and The East Side, she also loses Republican heavy precincts in MacDonald Highlands, Seven Hills, and the outer reaches of Old Henderson. All in all, it's likely a wash (maybe even slightly improving her district, since those parts of Henderson are filled with high-propensity GOP voters) and she's probably a slight favorite to hold onto this swingy but Democratic trending Green Valley based district. In the mean time, my other Senator, Michael Roberson, loses me and the rest of Green Valley as the SD 05 dual district is broken up and his house is placed in the new Silverado Ranch anchored SD 13. For him, that's not good news, since his house is placed in a rapidly diversifying and Democratic trending seat. Meanwhile, Joe Hardy can breathe more easily now that his once swingish seat sheds its East Side and North Las Vegas tentacles to contract to just GOP dominant Anthem, Old Henderson, and Boulder City (along with Laughlin at its southern tip).
Now that we have nearly all of Clark County covered, let's take a trip north and see what this map does to Reno and the rurals.
We'll start with the rural territory.
SD 16 (The Lime Green District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Dean Rhoads [R-Tuscarora] termed out in 2012)
76.0% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 35.2%, McCain (R) 61.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 35%, Angle (R) 58%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 28%, Sandoval (R) 66%
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican
SD 17 (The Dark Slate District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Mike McGinness [R-Fallon] termed out in 2012)
78.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 37.3% Obama (D), 59.9% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 32% Harry Reid (D), 57% Angle (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican
Other than longtime Legislature legends Dean Rhoads and Mike McGinness being termed out next year, there's nothing really changing all that much here. SD 16 actually does have to dip into Clark County, but the addition of Mesquite only strengthens the Republican tilt here.
OK, then... Let's hit Carson and Reno!
SD 18 (The Yellow District)
Incumbent James Settlemeyer (R-Minden)
81.8% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 45.2% Obama (D), 52.4% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 39% Harry Reid (D), 54% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 30% Rory Reid (D), 64% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican
SD 21 (The Maroon District)
Incumbent Ben Kieckhefer (R-Reno)
78.3% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 50.8%, McCain (R) 47.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 46%, Angle (R) 49%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Sandoval (R) 62%
Early Race Rating: Leans Republican
SD 19 (The Yellow Green District)
Incumbent Don Gustavson (R-Sparks)
67.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 55.6%, McCain (R) 42.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 51%, Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Sandoval (R) 57%
Early Race Rating: Tossup if GOP picks another nominee, Leans Democratic if Gustavson or another teabagger is GOP nominee
SD 20 (The Pink District)
Incumbent Sheila Leslie (D-Reno)
62.7% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 65.2%, McCain (R) 32.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 60%, Angle (R) 34%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 47%, Sandoval (R) 47%
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic
Sparks Republican Don Gustavson gets an unwanted surprise here when his district retracts from rural territory and takes in Downtown Sparks (reuniting all of the City of Sparks). This makes his district significantly more Democratic, and potentially unwinnable for a flame-throwing teabagger such as himself. Meanwhile in Carson City and Valley, James Settlemeyer's district doesn't change much, only reuniting all of Douglas County and taking in some Reno exurbs in Washoe County. And back in Washoe, Ben Kieckhefer gets a district that's probably better suited to his moderate ways... But if he gets teabagged in a GOP primary, it could potentially fall if Democrats unite behind a strong candidate. And in Reno, Sheila Leslie's district remains rock solid Democratic (don't pay too much attention to the NV-Gov numbers, Sandoval is "the hometown boy") as it contracts to just inner city Reno and the "college town" neighborhoods surrounding UNR.
I know this map isn't perfect, but I tried my best to keep districts compact, bring together proper communities of interest, and create as many neatly drawn minority-majority districts as possible. I think it's something The Nevada Supreme Court will at least consider.
And by the way, in case you were wondering, here's my breakdown of the partisan divide of the new Senate seats:
9 Safe Democratic
4 Safe Republican
8 Tossups & Leaners (2 Lean Republican, 3 Lean Democratic)
Good work :-)
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