Post-Primary #NVLeg Senate Ratings

I promised you this on Wednesday, so I'll start delivering today. You asked, so you shall receive. Now that the primary is over, it's time to take a fresh look at the hot races that will determine the balance of power in Carson City and Washington, DC, next year. And today, we will be starting with another look at the upper house of Nevada's Legislature: The Senate.

When we last checked in March, Republicans were starting to get nervous about their chances of retaking the Senate. And as you'll see below, there's still plenty of reasons for them to have the jitters (though Democrats shouldn't get overconfident, either).

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley, Silverado Ranch, Old Henderson

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 45%

Race Rating: Tossup

So Former Henderson City Council Member Steve Kirk handily won his GOP primary against "tea partier" Annette Teijero. Now, the really tough part begins.

Early on, Kirk was seen by many pundits as at least a slight favorite (despite the partisan numbers) because of his strong fundraising. However, he was ultimately forced to spend in the primary. That gave Democrat and Former State Senator Joyce Woodhouse (who entered just this year, after Senator Shirley Breeden announced her retirement) a chance to catch up on fundraising... And get a head start on persuading voters in the field.

While I'm not yet comfortable taking this seat out of "Tossup Territory", I am thinking Senate Republican Leader Michael Roberson will soon be sweating bullets because of this race... If he hasn't started already. If Kirk loses to Woodhouse, then Democrats will keep the Senate.

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 53%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

If Republicans have to sweat bullets on 5, then Democrats must be getting a little jittery on 6. While Senate Democratic Caucus endorsed candidate Benny Yerushalmi won the primary, he only won with 56% against "some dude" Tom Welsh (who barely spent any $). Some insiders thought Yerushalmi's strong fundraising would help Team Blue crush "tea party" darling Mark Hutchison in this seat being vacated by Democrat Allison Copening (who beat GOP incumbent Bob Beers in 2008 in a more GOP friendly district), but this week's primary results should make them rethink that assumption.

While Hutchison, the lawyer hand-picked by then Governor Jim Gibbons (R) to fight the Affordable Care Act in court, may be too conservative on paper for this swing seat, Yerushalmi and the Caucus clearly have more work ahead of them in convincing voters to choose him instead.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So Roberson got his way in the end after all. Mari St. Martin will indeed be the GOP nominee here. However, that's coming at a very steep price. While Brent Jones failed to upset on Tuesday, his "tea party" fueled opposition to St. Martin and Roberson succeeded in damaging the former Nevada Republican Party spokesperson's public image. In branding St. Martin as a "reckless party girl", they reminded voters of their Former Senator turned Maxim model (Elizabeth Halseth). And in the end, that does nothing but further weaken Team Red in this seat that redistricting first put into play.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Justin Jones breezed through his primary, raised over $130,000 so far this year, and has been working the field like crazy. While Nevada Democrats aren't taking this seat for granted, they must be smiling ay the kind of rock solid campaign Jones is running... And giggling at the train wreck Republicans are trying desperately to salvage.

SD 18
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 50%
H Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 38%

Race Rating: Tossup

Normally, this kind of seat is incredibly difficult for Democrats to win. However, a "near perfect storm" has put flipping this seat into the realm of possibility.

First off, the North had to give up a Senate seat. Secondly, Democrats scored big time when Kelli Ross, local businesswoman and wife of Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross, decided to run here. And finally, they've been helped by the ugly Republican infighting spilling over to local races.

Still, Roberson approved candidate Scott Hammond survived the primary... And that part isn't sweet music to Democrats' ears. In this primary, Roberson got to breathe a big sigh of relief.

However, Assembly Member Hammond now has a bigger task ahead in fighting for his promotion in the general. And since Kelli Ross has managed to thread the needle in preventing the Democratic base from throwing her overboard (she survived her own primary challenge from progressive favorite Donna Schlemmer) while maintaining her appeal to independent and crossover Republican voters, she can't be counted out. This is likely still a close race that Republicans will have to fight hard to win.

SD 1
North Las Vegas- Eldorado, Aliante

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 60%
Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
R Reid (D) 54%
Sandoval (R) 42%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is likely the only time you'll ever see this seat on the board. I'm only putting it on today as a courtesy to anyone who's wondering how progressive challenger Pat Spearman's shocking landslide defeat of Blue Dog incumbent John Lee changes the state of this race. Basically, it doesn't. For goodness sake, Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate here! While the Independent American candidate will probably get a higher than usual share of the vote in this Nor'town based district, Spearman will most likely take over Lee's old desk in the Senate Chambers next year.

Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Caughlin Ranch, Northwest, West Downtown

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 37%

Race Rating: Tossup

Oddly enough, the race likely to provide the most drama in November caused next to none in the primary. Republican Greg Brower and Democrat Sheila Leslie are now set to battle on to November. And while Brower has the advantages of a well organized county party (as opposed to the NV GOP train wreck), a very slight GOP registration edge, and a strong fundraiser in Brower, Leslie has the advantages of a strong state Democratic Party run field operation, likely strength at the top of the ticket (in private polling, Obama has been surprisingly resilient in Washoe County), and a strong grassroots campaigner in Leslie. This will likely be hard fought all the way to the end, and Washoe Republicans will be scrambling furiously here because they know the Senate is lost if Brower loses.

So what does the final count look like? Again, let me give the latest scoreboard, which is ranked highest to lowest in likelihood of Democratic win.

9 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
15 (Flip)
6 (Hold)
18 (Flip)

(And again, there's a better chance of Hell freezing over than that of Republicans winning 1.)

If I had to draw a line now, it would again fall just after 15. This would give Democrats 12 seats, or a net gain of 1 (GOP flips 6, but Dems flip 9 & 15). However, things may change drastically because we have 4 Tossup seats. Expect much more action in the war for control of #NVLeg this summer and fall.

One More Anti-Choice FAIL

Farewell, personhood initiative.

Personhood Nevada face a Tuesday deadline to collect more than 72,000 signatures to place the proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot.

Organizers told The Associated Press on Friday that they will not meet the signature threshold.

The amendment called "The Right to Live for Young and Old" sought to define life as beginning at conception and prohibit some forms of birth control, fertility treatments when selective reduction is used, and embryonic stem cell research.

This isn't the first time that the "Call the Zygotes People" Initiative failed to make the ballot, but this may very well be the last time that anyone takes them seriously. Especially ever since women's reproductive freedom was enshrined in the Nevada Constitution twenty years ago, voters here have had no appetite for attacking that. And apparently, the recent Mitt Romney/Dean Heller/Joe Heck/"tea party" "War on Women" has done nothing but hurt Nevada Republicans.

So I'm not too surprised that the personhood initiative failed to qualify for the ballot. Frankly, it's just funny to see how the voters themselves scuttled it by declining to sign the petition. Ouch. I wonder if this is finally what it takes to get G-O-TEA politicians to realize that there's no value in attacking women's rights.

Pahrump... WTF??!!

If you ever thought city/town council meetings are incredibly boring, then you've clearly never been to Pahrump.

About 30 members of the Nye County Republican Central Committee led the charge to make a citizen's arrest on three town board members after voting to repeal a town ordinance passed years ago.

Attorneys say Pahrump Town Ordinance 46 is unconstitutional because it restricts power of future town boards, and so they put the issue on the agenda to repeal it. Members of the NCRCC say that is illegal because it should have been put to a public vote. Town leaders voted anyway, and that's when meeting turned to melee.

Bill Carns led the charge, as NCRCC members tried to make a citizen's arrest on board members Harley Kulkin, Tom Waters and Vicky Parker. When Nye County Sheriff Deputies refused, the group tried to make citizen arrests on deputies themselves.

Board Chair Vicky Parker says the group has been disruptive before.

"This is just the first time they decided to arrest us," she said. "It was bullying, it was threats, intimidation, harassment."

At first, this looks like downright lunacy. And to a large extent, it really is. Last I checked, one actually needs to present evidence of criminal wrongdoing to make an arrest.

However, I can also see the real frustration behind this week's melee... And why it was finally unleashed.

Not that long ago, Pahrump was just a sparsely populated rural outpost far from any bustling metropolis. Now, it's a town of over 36,000 people that's increasingly looking like an exurb of the Las Vegas metropolitan area that's now topping 2,000,000 people. And now, Pahrump actually has a larger population than (incorporated cities) Boulder City and Mesquite combined.

Fifty years ago, Pahrump didn't even have telephone service! But especially in the last two decades, people have been flocking here seeking a "simpler", more bucolic life. And while there may still be some wide open space now, even that's been changing as more housing and commercial developments are approved. Really, this once rural outpost in the middle of nowhere is increasingly looking like an exurb.

And I can see why many folks there are becoming frustrated. They went to Pahrump looking for "the libertarian ideal". However, they found a community experiencing serious growing pains.

While the surface issue looks to be an ordinance prohibiting the pursuit of cityhood, I suspect there's more beneath the surface. And until Pahrump residents decide whether they want to save their rural way of life or continue growing into a full fledged Las Vegas suburb, there will likely be more of these problems going forward.

I just find it funny how the Nye County Republican Central Committee is butting into this dispute. They supposedly favor "limited government" and "individual rights", yet they're supporting a measure meant to limit peoples' First Amendment free speech rights. Oh, the irony!

But again, this may not be the last time we see this kind of explosion in Pahrump.

NV-04: Baby Tark's Delusions of Grandeur

Last night, newly minted NV-04 G-O-TEA Nominee Danny Tarkanian went on "Face to Face" to beg Jon Ralston to take his campaign seriously.



Fortunately for "Baby Tark", he also got a boost from a local Las Vegas "newspaper" trying hard to make NV-04 look like a Tossup race that Tark can win. Here's why they're wrong.

Barbara Cegavske may be gone, but "Baby Tark" looks to be inheriting her delusions of grandeur. After all, he thinks his last name entitles him to high elected office. He preaches "fiscal responsibility", but he refuses to practice what he preaches. And he really wants to debate the issues... Except when he doesn't.

Seriously, could there be a more shallow candidate than Danny Tarkanian? What does he have to offer other than his last name? Not even Clark County Republicans were impressed.

And then, there's Tark's continuing loyalty to the Romney-Heller-Heck "tea party" agenda. It's not looking all that popular overall here in Nevada, so he has a problem. Eventually, he'll need to get beyond calling President Obama and Steven Horsford "poopy heads" and actually explain why he supports bailouts for billionaires over investment in public education, green jobs, health care, and transportation infrastructure that can help stabilize and diversify Nevada's economy. And really, he needs to better explain why he's running for Congress. Until he does that, he's just engaging in meaningless delusions of grandeur.

Why Are Nevada Democrats So Happy?

In case last weekend's love fest wasn't upbeat enough for you, here's some scenery from last night's @NVDems Henderson coordinated campaign office grand opening.



And surprise, surprise, we saw some famous faces there. Both Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera were there to celebrate their primary wins, and Dina Titus & Steven Horsford came to join in the good times as well. All in all, everyone seemed to be enjoying the good times.









But why, oh why, are they? After all, isn't Nevada such a brutal battleground swing state? Yes, although it's increasingly looking like the battle is happening within the Republican Party.

PPP's newest Nevada poll shows Obama ahead once again. And again, it looks like PPP is understating Obama's strength with a fairly conservative sample. Despite all the money Mitt Romney and his allies are spending here, he just can't catch a break.

That also spells trouble for Republicans down ballot. Since both Dean Heller and Joe Heck have tied themselves to the Romney-"tea party" agenda, the fate of their political careers likely lies with Romney's chances here. And since Romney's chances here in Nevada are increasingly looking lousy, they're running scared.

And it looks like Nevada Democrats won't let them hide. Later this week, that new Henderson office will be activating with phone bankers and canvassers. There will be plenty of field activity happening, field activity that should last all the way to November 6. And this will be complementing all the field work that OFA Nevada is doing.

This may really be Nevada Democrats' "secret weapon" that puts Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford over the top. But shhhh, don't tell the Republicans about it. Oh wait, that's right. They're too busy jumping sharks to even care.

Nevada Primary Recap

To a large extent, we didn't see too many surprises last night. Both Shelley Berkley and Dean Heller won their respective primaries for US Senate, as did John Oceguera in NV-03. Yep, everything seemed to go smoothly and as planned...

Except it didn't.




While Danny Tarkanian ultimately prevailed in NV-04, he did so only narrowly... And only narrowly over the underfunded Barbara Cegavske. And in another embarrassing blow to "Baby Tark", he lost to Cegavske in Clark County! Oh yes, that's right. Barbara Cegavske actually beat "Lil' Tark Shark" in the territory where his last name is golden, and he needed the rurals to save his sorry behind.

And in the Legislature, we saw some dramatic upheaval. In AD 39 in rural Northern Nevada, incumbent Assembly Member Kelly Kite lost to "tea party" backed Jim Wheeler. While Kite was no moderate, he voted for last year's budget... Which still made him insufficiently conservative for the "tea party". In AD 9 in Southwest Vegas, GOP Establishment backed Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman narrowly lost to "some dude" Kelly Hurst. And in AD 35, which is just to the south of AD 9, Adam Cegavske (Barbara's son) lost to "some dude" Tom Blanchard.

And then, there's SD 1.

Michael Flores, who helped organize the opposition to [John] Lee, said liberals were motivated to oust Lee after the last legislative session, when he pushed a controversial bill to allow guns on college campuses and succeeded in pushing through another bill that could pave the way for more development around Lake Tahoe.

“Last session was really ugly,” Flores said. “We couldn’t sit around and let nothing happen. We couldn’t sit around and not follow through on our threat.” [...]

Lee had, for a time, been running for Congress, against Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford. But when Lee dropped out of that race and ran for re-election, he quickly earned the full-throttled support of the Democratic Party establishment.

Even such groups that had tangled with him in Carson City, like the state teacher’s union and AFL-CIO — the traditional Democratic political muscle — remained neutral in the race, instead of opposing him.

Who could have guessed? Who could have guessed?

This was the first time that the Netroots/Grassroots Left organized to unseat an incumbent Democratic legislator for voting too far to the right. And since John Lee had quite the conservative record for representing a safe Democratic seat, progressives seized on the opportunity to correct that. And despite all the money spent by Lee and the support he received from the Democratic Establishment and the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce, Lee only managed to score 37% yesterday against military veteran, college lecturer, ordained minister, and out lesbian Pat Spearman. And interestingly enough, voters soured on Lee because of his opposition to progressive goals like marriage equality, fair taxation, reproductive rights, and good environmental stewardship.

While Nevada has become accustomed to seeing bloody primaries on the right, this is the first time that we saw a successful challenge from the left. And this probably won't be the last time.

All in all, we had an interesting night here in The Silver State last night. And later this week, I'll explain how this affects the general election.

Primary Night Liveblog

So it's finally over. Now, the results are coming in. By the way, you can check the results here. I'll be coming back with updates whenever I can.

Oh, and in case you forgot, here's a cheat sheet of all the expected hot primaries. Stay tuned to see if we run into any surprises tonight.

7:45 PM-

Whoa! The early voting numbers are now in, and here's what's happening:

- In NV-04, Barbara Cegavske is starting with a tight 30-28 lead over Danny Tarkanian. If this holds, then Baby Tark's political career really is over!

- In SD 1, Pat Spearman is leading 60-40.

So plenty of upsets already brewing! I'll check in again soon for another update.

8:50 PM-

Say hi to Future Senator Pat Spearman! With not too many election day votes to count, it looks like John Lee is getting crushed in a HUGE upset! Despite Lee's big financial advantage, his political career may finally be ending tonight. What a way to go.

John Oceguera, on the other hand, is now in for the fight of his life. He easily cleared the NV-03 Democratic primary with just over 50%, so now he's moving on to challenging Joe Heck in the general election.

And we're still waiting on NV-04 GOP. Last I checked, Danny Tarkanian just took the lead... But it's still super close. We may be up for quite a while before we figure out who won.

9:55 PM-

Or maybe not. As more rural precincts report, Baby Tark seems to hold onto his lead. He may yet win the primary... And win the right to lose to Steven Horsford in the general.

Meanwhile, SD 18 will come down to Democrat Kelli Ross and Republican Scott Hammond. In that race, the establishment(s) prevailed. Same goes in SD 9, as Mari St. Martin is pulling ahead in the GOP primary.

However, the Dem establishment is getting embarrassed in SD 1 as Pat Spearman has a 63-37 commanding lead over incumbent John Lee. And in AD 39, incumbent Republican Kelly Kite is losing to "tea party" backed upstart Jim Wheeler. Again, strange things happen in low turnout primaries.

What a Fool Believes: Nevada GOP Leader Can't Practice What He Preaches.

Whoops. Nevada Republicans should not be proud of their Chairman making news like this.

The letter, which I have obtained [...], is to be sent to Hilary Lopez, who is in charge of federal programs with the state. McDonald and his "consultant" Frank Hawkins need the state tax credits to make the deal work that was approved by the council in April with a gift of $4 million to get them started. McDonald has failed before at a similar project and defaulted on it.

In the missive that McDonald is asking council members to sign, he is essentially asking for a personal endorsement, something I'd guess City Attorney Brad Jerbic will not be too likely to advise them to do. The letter says McDonald's company "and its development team is (sic) the correct choice to see it to completion." And this: "It would be a tragedy to the area to allow this development to fall through." A tragedy! I'd say a tragedy beyond words. And this bizarre final line that the council folks are supposed to endorse: "Finally, I fully support this project and the choice of (McDonald's company) to complete this development and ask that they (sic) be allowed to compete for the available tax credits without the incursion of politics."

I am sure Ms. Lopez will be thrilled to read that last line.

Forget the arrogance of a "developer" asking an elected official to sign a letter you have written for them — although that is hard to forget. There is simply no way all the members sign that letter as is. Just a guess.

Yep. This is not the kind of headline news that Nevada Republicans want to make.

However, they really should have known this was coming. After all, even the "tea party" cheerleaders at NPRI called out Michael McDonald for his love of corporate welfare. And really, isn't today's Nevada Republican Party supposed to embody those "tea party" principles of limited government and personal responsibility?

No wonder why the Nevada Republican Party is such a train wreck now. One leads by example. And yes, Michael McDonald is setting quite the example for his "tea party" fans to follow.

Where's the limited government? Where's the personal responsibility? And for that matter, where are the ethics? Oh, what a fool believes.

What's About to Happen Tonight?

Get ready for a a very bumpy ride tonight. And perhaps the biggest and baddest ride of them all will be the NV-04 G-O-TEA primary.

Republicans believe they may have a chance, given that a portion of the district is Republican rural Nevada, which turns out more consistently than urban, Democratic Clark County. Also, they believe they have effective attacks against Horsford.

But first, Republicans need a nominee.

The GOP has had a heated primary for the seat. Competing are Danny Tarkanian, a businessman and son of UNLV legend Jerry Tarkanian; state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, a conservative veteran of Carson City; and Dan Schwartz, a businessman who spent thousands of dollars from his own wealth on his campaign.

And then there’s perennial candidate Kenneth Wegner, who has neither raised nor spent money. But polls show he is competitive.

If he wins in this election where his opponents have attacked each other, a word of advice: Ignore just about everything you read from political parties, pundits and reporters. We know nothing.

Republicans think they have a shot against Steven Horsford, but their thinking is increasingly looking like delusions of grandeur. Really, take a look at these candidates. Danny Tarkanian has name recognition like hardly any other Vegas politician, Barbara Cegavske has a host of Carson City insider connections, and Dan Schwartz has a crapload of money. Yet for all their supposed strengths, this primary has exposed them all as fairly weak candidates. Whoever wins this primary won't have an easy hoe in the general.


And of course, that's not the only game in town tonight. In fact, there are several key Legislature primaries on both sides to watch. On the Republican side, SD 9 in Southwest Vegas has turned incredibly contentious as "tea party" backed Brent Jones and his friends have turned increasingly personal in attacking GOP Establishment backed Mari St. Martin. Also on the Republican side, SD 18 has been an ideological tour de force between Establishment backed Scott Hammond and "tea party" backed Jonathan McArthur.

And then, there's the big Democratic contest progressives across the state will be watching. Blue Dog State Senator John Lee is facing progressive challenger Patricia Spearman in what's perhaps the toughest fight in all of John Lee's political career. Regardless of the final results tonight, John Lee's future will be far different from what any of us had originally imagined. And going forward, progressives will be more emboldened to take on conservatives in the future.

In addition, we have plenty of hot Assembly races that will be determined today. All in all, today will be quite eventful... Even if most primary voters have already done so. In fact, that's the real wild card that will decide a number of politicians' fates tonight.

Why "The T Word" Can No Longer Be Avoided

Today, we are reminded again of why why taxes are becoming a big issue this year. And both High Jackson & Bob Fulkerson made that clear on "The Agenda" today.



As we've discussed before, this is no longer an issue that can be ignored. Teachers are now being laid off, and programs at CCSD and higher Ed are being cut or eliminated entirely. And as we've discussed before, Nevada's economy will never reach its full potential if we never develop the public infrastructure needed to bring lasting jobs into this state.

This is really no laughing matter. And this is why the corporate margin tax initiative may really be the right issue coming to the right place at the right time. As our schools continue to fall apart, our teachers are not allowed to do their job, and our kids fail to receive all the opportunities that they deserve, we can no longer afford to be complacent. Rather, we the people must start getting proactive.

Hopefully, we'll see that happen this year as this initiative picks up steam.

Who Said What About an Organized Party? (@nvdems Day 1-Day 2)

Late on Saturday, State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) gave his speech to the Nevada State Democratic Party Convention as he was running to be Nevada's DNC Committeeman. And while Ruben touched on that, he also reminded the crowd of why they were all there.



Like the rest of Saturday's big headline speakers, he stressed the need to elect Democrats up and down the ballot. And Ruben pledged to do his part to accomplish just that. Again, it wasn't the kind of drama that Nevada Republicans regularly put out. But really, it's more of a relief than a disappointment.



Actually, most of the drama occurred yesterday, when the party had to adopt a new platform. A delegate from Douglas County tried to amend the new provision supporting marriage equality. At first, that amendment had succeeded... Then it was found to be in violation of platform adoption rules, so it was thrown out and the original provision clearly supporting LGBTQ equality was restored.

There was also tension building over the new provision in support of a mining tax. But once the party's executive board laid down the rules, the path was cleared for the new platform to pass without any further roadblocks, revisions, or other complications.

I'm assuming most of the media were yawning over the Democratic Convention because it was so anti-climatic compared to the Republicans'. But again, that's not really a bad thing. In fact, it's how a state party is supposed to function. And as we're increasingly seeing in the field, Nevada Republicans will have a steep price to pay this fall for airing out all their dirty laundry in public.

Wild About Harry (Day 1 @NVDems Convention)

When glancing at media coverage of the Nevada Democratic Convention happening in Las Vegas this weekend, one gets the sense that it's a boring snooze fest because there weren't as many attendees as the Republican Convention last month. However, what they forgot to mention was that the Democratic Convention wasn't as full of unbridled batshit crazy as the Republican Convention.

Case in point: There was no need for armed guards. There was no all night showdown over rules. There was no fight over whether to vote with hands, with feet, with voice, or with signs. Oh, and there was no need for top elected officials to hide and find excuses not to attend.

Outgoing Assembly Speaker and current NV-03 candidate John Oceguera made it a point to come early and excite the base.



And this isn't even the entirety of Oceguera's speech! He really seems to have learned how to thread the needle in pushing issues that excite the base (like marriage equality, public education investment, and creating more green jobs and renewable energy infrastructure) while also appealing to the movable middle that tips elections in Nevada's key battleground district. Oceguera also reminded the crowd of that, and he wasn't alone in saying it.

Mr. Majority Leader himself also came by to say hi.



And Harry Reid kept singing to that tune. While Reid himself isn't up this time, this election will be crucial in deciding how much he can do for Nevada next year. That's why he urged the crowd to work extra hard for President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford. Reid pointed out the stark contrast between Democrats standing up for working families and Republicans' loyalty to "tea party" extremism over everything and everyone else.

And no, Reid didn't shy away from hot button issues. He framed the Affordable Care Act as economic justice, and he framed the DREAM Act & comprehensive immigration reform as a matter of social justice that we can't afford to ignore. Reid received thunderous applause during his speech, as well as plenty of happy supporters afterward. (He actually walked the room for a few minutes to meet some happy Nevada Democrats!)



And this is just some of the sights and sounds of the room at Bally's on the Las Vegas Strip. In addition to all the politicians on stage, there were activists on the floor discussing which campaigns to get involved with. And of course, there were activists busy recruiting even more volunteers for the likes of OFA. Here's a glimpse of the kind of energy that always defines OFA's Henderson grassroots team.



While they may not be as flashy or loud as the "revolutionaries" raising hell at last month's Republican Convention, they're also not as combative or power-hungry. Rather, they're just going about their quiet business in reelecting President Obama... And increasingly, helping local Democrats up and down the ballot as well. They may not make for a salacious story like the G-O-TEA's, but their story is just as compelling... And probably more productive.

So keep that in mind while you're hearing all the media hype & spin.

Day 1 @nvdems Convention

In case you were wondering why my Twitter has so many photos today, here's why. The Nevada State Democratic Party is having its convention today. And yes, I've been here all day to take in all the action.

And yes, we've seen action today. While the morning started slowly, it's picked up over the course of the day.

Funny enough, John Oceguera started firing up the crowd in reminding them what's at stake in NV-03. Dina Titus & Harry Reid later spoke, and they got the crowd roaring in pointing out the differnces between Nevada's Democratic candidates and the Mitt Romney-"tea party" unholy alliance. While the action hasn't been as lively as the Nevada Republican Convention, it's been more productive.

All in all, it's been an interesting day here. Tomorrow morning, I'll have a full recap of today's action... Along with video! Stay tuned for more.

All Aboard the Nevada GOP (FUBAR Express)?

Earlier this week, we discussed the reasons why Jim Messina is smiling about President Obama's chances here in Nevada. Today, we're reminded of yet another reason why Mitt Romney operatives are worried. And funny enough, this gem comes to us from Utah!



When we started the week, it looked like Carl Wimmer would be the new political director for the Nevada Republican Party. Instead, it looks like quite a few elephants are being forced to eat crow. It's looking ugly for Wimmer. It's really ugly.

The former state lawmaker and congressional candidate said he was driving on I-15 near Cedar City when he got a call from a Nevada reporter who'd been told the party hadn't hired him. He said he didn't turn around because others assured him the situation could be resolved.

What he said he found in Las Vegas, however, were party officials who were "not just dysfunctional, they're non-functional." After a day of meetings Tuesday with a number of Nevada Republicans, Wimmer said it was time to head back to Utah. [...]

[Nevada GOP Chair Michael] McDonald, Wimmer said, likely was getting pushback from others in the party about how he filled the political director spot and "wanted to put the genie back in the bottle and say, OK, this deal is over."

Wimmer acknowledged he never actually talked to McDonald or anyone else associated with the party other than twopeople he said he couldn't name, and Jesse Law, whom he called the Nevada GOP's "acting political director."

It turns out, though, that Law doesn't work for the party.

"He has no title with the party. He's not on staff," said Nola Bonecutter, controller for the Nevada Republican Party.

Law, described as an aide to McDonald, apparently had expected to be hired as executive director as supporters of presidential candidate Ron Paul swept into power at the Nevada GOP.

So you must know what comes next. Oh yes, what a fool believes...



Who could have guessed that Michael McDonald would cause (even more) problems at the Nevada GOP? Who could have guessed?

Really, the Nevada GOP is reaping the rewards of its great organizationial skills... And for that matter, its rebuke of any and all proper regulations. When one thinks about it, one can see that this is the "tea party" ideal put into practice. Gut all regulatory authority, get rid of all those pesky adults in the room, and let the boys play with their toys. (Sorry, girls, but teabaggers are just not that into you or your civil rights.)

And just look at what's become of the Nevada Republican Party ever since it started drinking the "tea". It's become a train wreck that Mitt Romney, Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and Brian Sandoval are always trying to run away from. Now, I have to wonder if that's enough. Even if they escape the train wreck, how are they ever supposed to arrive at their intended destination?

Why Obama Came to UNLV Today

So President Obama was back here in Vegas today. He was officially here to discuss student loans...



But this was also seen through the prism of the campaign. After all, President Obama had an opportunity to remind UNLV students of what he wants to do to make higher education more affordable. And Republicans really can't make an honest rebuttal.

Here's what Obama said at UNLV today.

“This is a no-brainer,” Obama told hundreds of attendees inside UNLV’s Cox Pavilion. “I’m telling Congress, get this done.”

Spurring Congress to action was a theme throughout Obama’s speech, which touched on several topics, including the economy and jobs.

The president said the nation’s economy was improving but admitted it was a hard path that would take time to turn around completely.

He called on elected leaders to take action.

“My message to Congress is: Let’s get to work. Let’s get to work,” he said.

“Congress should pass a bill, like I’ve asked them to do, to help states like Nevada ... put people back into jobs,” he said.

Obama, pulling a page from Harry Truman’s presidential campaign playbook, chastised a do-nothing Congress.

“You’re not sitting around doing nothing,” Obama told the audience. “You should expect the same from your elected representatives

And here's why.

Doubling interest rates will cost the average student and their families approximately $1,000 more for each year in school. This increase comes at a time when tuition has been rising at 8 percent per year on average. Students are actually paying more than the cost of tuition when loan interest payments are factored into the equation. Those borrowers relying on Stafford Loans will see a 20 percent increase in the effective cost of college next year.

Millions of students and their families will be impacted by this change. There are 20.5 million college students in the United States and of those, an estimated 7.4 million students take out Subsidized Stafford Loans. In other words, one in three students will see their interest rates double.

This increase in the cost of college will hit students and their families at a time when young adults have struggled to find work and wages have stagnated. Median weekly earnings for 25- to 34-year-olds have fallen 5 percent since 2001. The result is that young adults are less able to pay their student loan debt even as the amount they owe balloons with rising tuition. This will make it harder for young adults to afford college at a time when having that college degree is more essential for employment than ever.

And here's the really disgusting thing about this latest show of G-O-TEA obstruction. Republicans in Congress, like Nevada's own Dean Heller and Joe Heck, are voting to make college education unaffordable and inaccessible for Nevada's 99% working class students simply because they want to protect their 1% patrons. Yes, that's what it's really about.

Yet now, they're trying to pass the buck and pin all the blame on Obama. Oh, and they're now complaining about President Obama setting the record straight here at UNLV today? Give me a break.