10 of 12: All About #NVLeg

Early in the year, we were wondering just how relevant the Legislature will be in the future. With ideological rigidity and polarization at an all-time high, can any kind of major tax reform get through Carson City? And will the rise of "ballot box budgeting" change Nevadans' relationship with their representatives in state government?

Oh, what a year we lived!

In the space of 72 hours in the third week of February, the entire "conventional wisdom" of Carson City was turned on its head. Early on, the biggest assumption was that Republicans had the inside track to retake the State Senate, especially considering the early retirements of Clark County Democrats Shirley Breeden (SD 5) and Alison Copening (SD 6). However in that third week of February, the entire calculus of the campaign for the upper house of the Nevada Legislature changed with the entry of Sheila Leslie into the SD 15 race in Washoe County and the sudden resignation of Elizabeth Halseth in SD 9 in Clark County. At first, the Halseth story seemed like such a tawdry case of "dirty laundry" being aired out in public...

Obviously, Elizabeth Halseth is leaving behind a messy personal life that Senate Republicans are trying to quietly sweep under the rug. And while I typically don't like probing into politicians' personal lives, I feel obligated to talk about something that hardly anyone else (with the notable exception of Chuck Muth) is willing to discuss.

In 2010, Elizabeth Halseth became a State Senator thanks to attacking others' personal lives. Her campaign attacked Dennis Nolan over being called to testify at someone else's criminal trial. And after the Republican primary, she then attacked Benny Yerushalmi in the general election over ridiculous material like his wife's outfits! So considering this context, I've come to accept that it's perfectly appropriate to note Halseth's total hypocrisy on making other's private lives public... Before she flees over her own private life.

And not only that, but Halseth is now using her private life as an excuse not to fulfill her public duties. Why won't she show up at interim committee hearings any more? Why won't she answer constituent emails? And why has her cell phone been shut off? Hello, Elizabeth Halseth is still listed as a Nevada State Senator for the 9th District! She has an obligation to her constituents to finish the job she was elected to do. And for Michael Roberson to try to shut down questions on her whereabouts just because of his own political ambition is downright reprehensible. He may be afraid of losing his shot at becoming Majority Leader, but fulfilling one's public duties should always come above fueling someone else's political ambition.

Is it really that hard for Roberson to ask Daniel Halseth and Tiger Helgelien if they know where Elizabeth Halseth, his fellow Senator, is? And is it really that hard for him to ask her to either fulfill her duties or prepare to resign?

Apparently, it was... But that didn't really matter, since she ultimately decided to resign. And since SD 9 was made much more Democratic in redistricting, that meant a GOP held seat was suddenly put into play. And that led to the ultimate "game change" moment.

This is why [Senate Republican Leader Michael] Roberson is so scared now. And this is why the "big bid'ness" establishment will be forking out big checks to the likes of Greg Brower and Steve Kirk (a GOP candidate in SD 5). Again, as we've been saying here for a while (and Jon Ralston has admitted on Twitter), Republican hopes of flipping the Senate have diminished greatly in the last 100 hours. However, they still intend to go all in for the #NVLeg campaign just for the sake of saving enough seats to obstruct any kind of progressive agenda in the 77th session.

So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better. So remember not to "stop at the top"... Keep going down that ballot and vote for progress.

And they did this cycle. In fact, they mattered so much that "Tea Party, Inc." giant AFP risked legal action in order to strengthen Republicans' hand in the Legislature. But between AFP missteps, ongoing Nevada Republican infighting, and the strength of Nevada Democrats' ground game, they couldn't save Nevada Republicans in Carson City.

While many challenges remain for Nevada progressives, new opportunities are emerging. As discussed earlier, issues like gun safety and LGBTQ equality are bound to make a huge splash in Carson City in 2013. In addition, there's renewed hope for humane immigrant rights proposals and other progressive policy priorities.

Of course, the biggest challenge for 2012 remains "The T Word". But even there, there's been some progress. There's been convergence around extending the 2009/11 "Sunset Tax" deal. It just remains to be seen what else happens on the taxation front.

I guess we'll all have to stay tuned in 2013...

What a Fool Believes: Is "Tea Party" Showing Double Standard for McDonald?

The Nevada GOP has taken quite a few hits this week over the election of former Las Vegas City Council Member Michael McDonald as its new Chairman. And I'm not the only one talking. Ralston had this to say.

I want all of you — especially Gov. Sandoval, Sen. Heller and Rep. Joe Heck — to imagine it is October. CNN is here. Fox and MSNBC, too. You turn on your TV to hear, “Joining us now, the chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, Michael McDonald.”

Do you:

A. Pray

B. Hold your breath

C. Both

As the Nevada Policy Research Institute said in a screed Tuesday: “You just can’t make this stuff up.” The conservative think tank was referring to McDonald’s latest juice job at City Hall, with NPRI correctly pointing out that McDonald has a pattern of questionable conduct. Indeed, McDonald almost was thrown out of office 11 years ago after the state Ethics Commission found “his loyalty to his employer motivated him to assist (his private sector boss) in attempting to overcome a difficult financial situation by using access to staff and other members of the City Council (which an ordinary member of the public would not have) and lobbying them to take action which would benefit (his boss) and, therefore, himself. ... There was absolutely no evidence that the action Councilman McDonald was advocating ... was a good economic deal for the City of Las Vegas and in the public’s interest.”

Some things don’t change. The ex-councilman’s history neuters him when it comes to assailing Democrats on anything. McDonald is not just a flawed messenger; he is a fatally flawed messenger.

Maybe Michael McDonald is right in arguing that no one will pay any attention to him, that he will unify the party and that he will lead the GOP to smashing victories in November. Or maybe, as Michael McDonald also once said, that’s what a fool believes.

But perhaps the most searing indictment of the Nevada GOP for this move comes from one of its own, Orrin Johnson, who had this to say about his party's new leader.

Taken in the kindest possible light, new GOP Chair Michael McDonald’s past and current “property development” activities proves that he’s all for government-forced redistribution of wealth. A more honest assessment would be that he’s all about brazenly using positions of political power to enrich himself and/or his friends at taxpayer expense to the tune of millions of dollars.

Either way, he’s EVERYTHING the Tea Party Movement – and conservatism generally – is supposed to be against. And yet he was elected supposedly as the tea party, anti-establishment, “true conservative” option to chair the Nevada Republican Party. How did this happen?

The Nevada State GOP began hemorrhaging credibility back in October. With McDonald’s election, they’ve officially eliminated it completely. This will end badly for the state party, and for any politician stupid enough to get to close to Mr. McDonald. When it does, I just hope there are enough Republicans left untainted by this to save the conservative movement from total irrelevance for the foreseeable future.

Again, that's from a Republican! And hey, I at least have to give both Orrin Johnson and NPRI some credit in calling out their own.

However, do you remember the last time some "tea party" Republicans called out one of their own? Come on now, you must. It was only in February when none other than Chuck Muth took down Elizabeth Halseth and her political career by airing her dirty laundry. It was quite the sight to behold, since earlier that year he honored her as one of his "true conservative" stars.

Now as I said in February, Halseth made her dirty laundry into a legitimate problem by fleeing the state and her duties as a Nevada Legislator over it. And it only made things worse that she campaigned on "moral values" while failing to practice what she preached.

Back then, I gave Chuck Muth kudos for being honest about a politician he once backed. So why won't he do the same now? He's been a relentless cheerleader for Michael McDonald despite his sleazy "land deals cum bailouts" and "G-Sting" history. In fact, he's now attacking Orrin Johnson for simply pointing out the obvious! So Elizabeth Halseth was in the wrong for letting her affair with Tiger Helgelien get in the way of her public duty, but it's perfectly OK for newly elected Nevada Republican Party Chairman Michael McDonald to cheat Las Vegas taxpayers and still refuse to apologize for his role in "G-Sting"?

And folks wonder why Nevada Republicans always seem to be in trouble?

Sorry, but this looks to me like a double standard. If Elizabeth Halseth had to face consequences for her ethical lapses, then so should Michael McDonald. I'm just perplexed as to why Chuck Muth can't see what all the rest of us see, especially since McDonald's line of "business" flies in the face of what the "tea party" is supposed to be about.

Oh, what a fool believes...

Who's Running Where (Part I)

(In honor of candidate filing for partisan seats beginning this week, I'll be doing a series on "who's running where" as we keep up with the expanding list of candidates for federal, state, and county level offices this year.)

This may not seem appropriate, but it's nonetheless happening. On the same day as Bill Raggio's funeral, filing began for the race to determine the State Senate seat that Raggio once held for nearly 40 years... Along with a host of other races across the state.

Apparently, Republicans swapped candidates in SD 9 as former Joe Heck, Dean Heller, and Nevada GOP spokesperson Mari Nakashima St. Martin filed for that seat today. Also today, Justin Jones filed on the Democratic side for SD 9. He's a partner in the Holland & Hart law firm, he's been recognized as one of the top lawyers in the region, and he's a long time Southwest Vegas resident. That should be interesting.

But anyway, back to Reno...



The SD 15 race promises to be a real barnburner. And at this point, I can see no better example (other than perhaps SD 9 down here in the south?) of the competing visions of Nevada's future, as well as the competing plans to get there.

And so far, both the SD 9 race and the SD 15 race offer us a glimpse of what's at stake in the big picture. Up north, we have two seasoned legislators running against each other in a quintessential swing district (15) that was once represented by Nevada's longest serving State Senator. He was known for wheeling and dealing, but the people now running for the seat come from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum.

And down south, we're seeing two up and coming stars compete for a district (9) that was once the epicenter of Las Vegas' real estate bubble. So perhaps this was the ideal location for the rise of "The Accidental Senator". But now that Elizabeth Halseth is long gone (and out of state), Republicans seem to be settling on Joe Heck's former spokesperson as their standard bearer while Democrats are fielding a real legal "top gun" to flip this red seat blue.

It really does seem like our Legislature is going through plenty of transition. As we'll be seeing this week, plenty of new faces will be appearing at the Secretary of State's office while more familiar ones are jumping up to the federal level, or are just bowing out of electoral politics for good. Gone may be the "Old Nevada" days of long time politicians cutting deals and reaching consensus. Now we'll have to see if we get a new Legislature soon that looks more like the new Nevada.

Finding Elizabeth Halseth: Postscript (& Connecting the Dots)

So today, Chuck Muth has one more batch of Elizabeth Halseth's dirty laundry to expose. And jeez, it's a real doozy. And it gets really personal really fast.

Again, I don't really like talking about others' private lives. But in the case of Halseth, where she often injected private morality into the public sphere, she essentially asked for this. And by using her private life to make excuses for not fulfilling her public duties, Halseth also a lack of interest in showing any public morality. Sorry, but who can really fault Muth for "going there"?

And this really goes to a deeper core problem with our Legislature: When did this become "the norm" for governance in our state?

Right before Halseth's sudden resignation overshadowed every other trending #NVLeg story, we were again seeing the usual Sturm und Drang on a Sun piece on three Assembly Democrats not following Secretary of State Ross Miller's guidelines on reporting campaign expenses done while working in Carson City. As usual, queue the "revolutionaries" yielding pitchforks and decrying "corruption". But again, it was all just another Kabuki dance, since no one wanted to go to the heart of this problem, which is the massive amount of corporate money infecting our politics and our government. Instead of asking why who didn't report what on which form, why can't anyone ask why we have to accept the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex bestowing upon us "the best democracy money can buy"?

We saw another act in this Kabuki theater last week when the Harvey Whittemore scandal broke. Pundits were pointing fingers in all directions. "How much did Harry Reid get from Whittemore? What will Dean Heller do with all those donations?" But funny enough, Jane Ann Morrison, one of the resident R-J pundits, actually made what was perhaps the smartest comment on last Friday's episode of "Nevada Week & Review" when she pointed out that what Whittemore did with his contributions isn't all that different from what the likes of Sheldon Adelson and Foster Friess are doing with Super PACs today. Of course, the only big difference is that Whittemore was "ahead of the curve" in doing it before the US Supreme Court legalized Super PACs with their Citizens United decision. Again, instead of asking why who accepted how much from whom, why can't anyone ask why we have to accept that so much power and influence in concentrated in the hands of a privileged few?

And finally, we saw California's State Senate Leader tell us to stick our SB 271 "Trash Tahoe Bill" where the sun don't shine. Thankfully, California's Legislature doesn't seem to be under the firm grip of corporate lobbyists yearning for more real estate development at Lake Tahoe. Unfortunately, ours has been. Again, why can't anyone ask why we have to accept that a few powerful corporate interests get to call all the shots and pave paradise to put up more parking lots?

And this takes us back to Elizabeth Halseth and her now defunct political career. How did it last for this long? And how was she able to get away with her escapades with Tiger Helgelien until late last week? If you want answers, then I suggest you see her page on the Secretary of State's new AURORA campaign finance database. And remember who funded "anonymous" attacks on her Democratic opponent in 2010. And remember who guided her last February to smear elementary school kids begging for the chance to stay in school. Notice anything?

If one really has to ask why Halseth made it to Carson City last year, then one hasn't been paying attention.

Believe it or not, a whole lot of folks across the state are still asking that question. And a whole lot of folks are still shocked at Chuck Muth exposing Halseth's moral hypocrisy. I'm just waiting for someone, anyone (!!!), to demand the kind of changes to our system that will no longer allow shadowy corporate interests to pop out of nowhere and send "empty suit" politicians like Elizabeth Halseth to do their bidding.

#NVLeg: Halseth's Gone & Leslie's Moved On... What's Next?

I'm quite sure I know what you're thinking. Now that Elizabeth Halseth is out, what happens next in Senate District 9 in Southern Nevada? Let me do my best to explain what's to come.

First, we have filing. And from what I've heard, it's too late for anyone currently living outside the new district boundaries to move in and campaign here. SD 9 has now been compacted to just the Southwest Vegas suburbs of Summerlin South (south of Red Rock Country Club), the western edge of Spring Valley, and the Enterprise communities of Mountain's Edge, Rhodes Ranch, and Southern Highlands. Sorry, aspiring carpetbaggers.

And so far, everything I heard Friday afternoon still stands. The new district boundaries will indeed be used in the special election, and the SD 9 special election will follow the same schedule as the other regularly scheduled Legislature elections. This means filing will be open until March 16, then the primary will occur on June 12. And of course, this also means SD 9 will ultimately be decided in the general election on November 6.

And so far, the same schedule looks to be in place for the Senate District 13 special election in Northern Nevada triggered by Sheila Leslie's big move to Senate District 15. The new SD 13 (formerly Washoe Senate 1) contains mostly the urban core of Reno and Sparks, while the new SD 15 (formerly Washoe Senate 3) takes in a large portion of Western Washoe County from White Lake to Sun Valley to Northwest Reno to Mount Rose.

Now that Sheila Leslie will be running in SD 15, Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) announced yesterday that she will run to fill the vacancy in SD 13.

“Northern Nevadans need strong representatives they can count on to get the job done,” Smith said in a statement. “While I believe there are some very promising signs that things are beginning to get better in our state, we have a long way to go. I am running for the state Senate to continue fighting for a better education system, a healthier economy, and a more efficient and effective government for Nevada. After spending the past few days talking with family, friends and community members, I feel this is the right decision at the right time.”

Leslie resigned her Senate Distrct 1 seat effective immediately Wednesday and plans to run against state Sen. Greg Brower, R-Reno, in Senate District 15.

District 1, which encompasses portions of Reno and Sparks, becomes District 13 in this election cycle after redistricting. The district has a solid Democratic edge in registered voters, about 18 percent. Leslie won election by 30 points in 2010, and former state Sen. Bernice Mathews, D-Reno, held the seat for 16 years before term limits ended her legislative career.

Now as the RGJ article quoted above states, not too much is really at stake in SD 13. It's still a heavily Democratic district. And as long as no other strong Democrat emerges to challenge Debbie Smith in the primary, then expect to see Senator Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) making waves in the next legislative session (next year).

No, the real battle will be farther west in SD 15. And down south, SD 9 will join SD 5 (Henderson-Green Valley), SD 6 (Las Vegas-Summerlin), and SD 18 (Northwest Las Vegas) in determining control of the Nevada State Senate. If Republicans win at least 4 of these 5 seats, then they take over the Senate. But if Democrats manage to sweep all 5 of these races, then Nevada Dems will finally reach the magic 2/3 number to secure a veto-proof supermajority and relegate Michael Roberson (and his extreme "tea party" agenda) to the sidelines.

This is why Roberson is so scared now. And this is why the "big bid'ness" establishment will be forking out big checks to the likes of Greg Brower and Steve Kirk (a GOP candidate in SD 5). Again, as we've been saying here for a while (and Jon Ralston has admitted on Twitter), Republican hopes of flipping the Senate have diminished greatly in the last 100 hours. However, they still intend to go all in for the #NVLeg campaign just for the sake of saving enough seats to obstruct any kind of progressive agenda in the 77th session.

So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better. So remember not to "stop at the top"... Keep going down that ballot and vote for progress.

BREAKING: Elizabeth Halseth WILL Resign!

This just in!

State Sen. Elizabeth Halseth, R-Las Vegas, resigned her office today, citing personal reasons, according to the senate Republican caucus.

Her resignation will place on the ballot a seat that favors Democrats, putting another obstacle in the way of Republicans' goal of taking control of the state Senate, where Democrats have an 11-10 advantage.

Halseth's resignation comes after Democratic lawmakers complained she had not been attending meetings or returning phone calls.

Halseth and her husband, Daniel, are getting a divorce. Her husband was arrested last year on "gross and open lewdness" charges.

My, oh my. I guess Elizabeth Halseth (and Michael Roberson) couldn't keep this ridiculous charade going for any longer. And I guess they couldn't handle the heat heading their way on this.

And this isn't just a win for Nevada Democratic strategists. This is a win for Nevadans, period. No Nevadan deserves to go unrepresented. And yes, that's what was happening while Halseth was AWOL and avoiding her professional duties as a Nevada legislator.

Now, voters in Senate District 9 will have a chance to elect someone who's genuinely interested in doing the job. Congratulations.

UPDATE, 3:50 PM-

I just spoke with a knowledgeable source who explained to me the process going forward:

- Brian Sandoval will appoint a placeholder to fulfill the duties of District 9's Senator for the rest of the 2012 interim.

- And in November, a special election will be held for SD 9 under the NEW boundaries. This means SD 9 will be a more Democratic leaning seat and a prime pickup opportunity for Nevada Democrats.

Wow. Just wow. Nevada Republicans just blew it... Again.

UPDATE, 4:10 PM-

In case you missed it, the Secretary of the Nevada Senate was first in posting Halseth's resignation letter. You can read it here. I'm loving her line on blaming her apparently not-so-good "prospects for employment" here in Nevada on "selfish partisans and a handful of reckless bloggers".

You're welcome, soon-to-be-ex-Senator Halseth! No seriously, I was never out to hurt her "prospects for employment" or harm her quality of life in any way, shape, or form. I only wanted for her constituents to get the kind of representation and service that they deserve.

Oh, and her line attacking President Obama for her personal woes is so "Klassy". Keep it "Klassy", Elizabeth Halseth.

UPDATE, 4:35 PM-

I wonder if Ralston stands by his prediction made on Twitter yesterday:

If I'm right and Halseth resigns, entire state Senate dynamic has gone, IMHO, from lean GOP to lean Dem. Wouldn't that be something? #nvleg

Yes, it is! And again, this is Michael Roberson's worst nightmare come true. Between this and Sheila Leslie giving Greg Brower a real run for his money (literally!) in the new SD 15 in Reno, his chances of becoming Senate Majority Leader have greatly diminished... And Nevadans tired of "tea party" insanity wreaking havoc on Nevada's government rejoice.

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;-)

Finding (the Story Behind) Elizabeth Halseth (Gone Missing)

Yesterday, I was alerted to a dossier on the Elizabeth Halseth scandal penned by... None other than Chuck Muth. Yes, believe it or not, Chuck Muth wrote a surprisingly balanced and detailed history of Halseth's political rise, as well as the origin of her likely fall from power.

Frankly, it was bizarre to read a Muth document that sheds more light on the Halseth affair than everything I've read from "the mainstream media". Hey, I have to give credit where credit is due. Kudos to Muth for being willing to spill the beans on this situation.

After reading Muth's dossier, here are just a few of the many questions I have:

- Why didn't anyone from any of Nevada's major media outlets report on the presence of Halseth's boyfriend, Tiger Helgelien, at the arrest of her husband, Daniel?

- Why didn't anyone else notice that Tiger Helgelien has family in Alaska, where Halseth has been rumored to have relocated?

- Why hasn't anyone else noticed Tiger Helgelien's early efforts to set up a Legislature campaign for this cycle (with the help of none other than Daniel Halseth)?

- And why didn't anyone bother to talk to Daniel Halseth about this?

On October 21, Daniel Halseth was arrested for an alleged domestic dispute involving his wife. Eight hours after his arrest, he was charged with “open and gross lewdness”. In the police report, Daniel accused his wife of having an affair, while she acknowledged that they were having “marital problems”. The police arrested Daniel because Elizabeth accused him of touching her inappropriately during an argument about the affair. Daniel denies that allegation. Either way, their perfect little world was about to come crumbling down.

In a December report authored by Chuck Muth, a political blogger, he states, according to the Las Vegas Criminal Defense blog that open and gross lewdness is “one of the more frequently falsely-accused offenses because police don’t need physical proof to make an arrest, and people may play the victim card out of revenge.” In the same report, Muth accuses Sen. Halseth of making similar claims against other male victims over the past 10 years.

So, you see, it turns out Daniel Halseth was right. His wife was having an affair with former golf professional, now real estate salesman, Tiger Helgelien. To make matters worse, Helgelien, who grew up in Alaska, was involved with Elizabeth’s election campaign, and Daniel built Helgelien’s website. In addition, rumors have it that Daniel was helping Helgelien raise funds for his own political campaign. Needless to say, Daniel has been devastated.

Major kudos must go to whatever this site is for reporting a side of this story that no one else has really talked about.

Obviously, Elizabeth Halseth is leaving behind a messy personal life that Senate Republicans are trying to quietly sweep under the rug. And while I typically don't like probing into politicians' personal lives, I feel obligated to talk about something that hardly anyone else (with the notable exception of Chuck Muth) is willing to discuss.

In 2010, Elizabeth Halseth became a State Senator thanks to attacking others' personal lives. Her campaign attacked Dennis Nolan over being called to testify at someone else's criminal trial. And after the Republican primary, she then attacked Benny Yerushalmi in the general election over ridiculous material like his wife's outfits! So considering this context, I've come to accept that it's perfectly appropriate to note Halseth's total hypocrisy on making other's private lives public... Before she flees over her own private life.

And not only that, but Halseth is now using her private life as an excuse not to fulfill her public duties. Why won't she show up at interim committee hearings any more? Why won't she answer constituent emails? And why has her cell phone been shut off? Hello, Elizabeth Halseth is still listed as a Nevada State Senator for the 9th District! She has an obligation to her constituents to finish the job she was elected to do. And for Michael Roberson to try to shut down questions on her whereabouts just because of his own political ambition is downright reprehensible. He may be afraid of losing his shot at becoming Majority Leader, but fulfilling one's public duties should always come above fueling someone else's political ambition.

Is it really that hard for Roberson to ask Daniel Halseth and Tiger Helgelien if they know where Elizabeth Halseth, his fellow Senator, is? And is it really that hard for him to ask her to either fulfill her duties or prepare to resign?

I just find it funny that the party of legislating private morality can't practice what they preach. And they still don't seem to understand the meaning of public morality. Tiger Helgelien is not an elected official, so he has every right to drop his campaign and return quietly to private life. However Elizabeth Halseth was elected in 2010, so she needs to answer questions from her constituents, and she needs to either return to her job or resign from this office.

Where in the World Is Elizabeth Halseth?

Uh oh. Yesterday, Nevada Republicans were panicking over Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) opting to run against Greg Brower (R-Reno) in the new SD 13 in the western Reno suburbs. Today, they're trying to deal with one of their own gone AWOL.

Assemblywoman Marilyn Kirkpatrick, D-North Las Vegas, said she was struggling to schedule an interim committee meeting on how taxes are distributed among local governments because [Senator Elizabeth] Halseth [R-Enterprise], who was appointed by her caucus to sit on the committee, has not returned calls.

“We’ve had a hard time reaching Ms. Halseth to determine her role,” Kirkpatrick said. “The last thing I’d want is for a Senate Republican not to be represented on the committee.”

While the tax distribution issue — the consolidated tax — is important in the world of local government finances, Halseth’s absence raises a larger question that could have big political ramifications: Will she return to the Legislature in 2013?

If Halseth moves out of her district or resigns ahead of the June 12 primary, it would put her seat on the ballot. Because of redistricting, her seat has a significant Democratic voter registration edge.

If she stays, however, Halseth is in the middle of a four-year term and her seat would not be open until 2014. She was elected in 2010 and became the youngest elected state senator.

And that's what scares Republicans the most. Because Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a significant margin in the new SD 9, and because the district probably voted around 58% Obama 2008 and 53% Reid 2010, this district will be incredibly difficult for Republicans to hold if put to election again this year. So right now, it looks like Republican Caucus Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) will be trying to delay Halseth's removal from the Senate just long enough so that it doesn't go to special election. As long as Halseth resigns after the 2012 filing deadline, Clark County Commissioners may be forced to appoint a Republican replacement for Halseth that lasts until the 2014 election.

But wait, how can he do this?

Well, the main problem here is that Halseth herself won't tell us where she's now living. Apparently she may technically be maintaining a Las Vegas address, but I've heard from multiple sources that Halseth is actually living in Alaska with her new boyfriend. But since her cell phone has been disconnected, her Twitter page and web site are down, and she hasn't responded to any media inquiries, no one knows for sure where she really is and what she's really doing. And as long as Roberson can keep everyone in the dark past March 16, he can be able to hold off a special election this year...

Or can he?

According to state law, if at least 25% of registered voters who voted in the last election (when the office was on the ballot) sign a recall petition, a recall election can happen. So may we see an election anyway, even if Michael Roberson keeps trying to run out the clock?

As we were discussing yesterday, the whole conversation on Legislature elections has changed dramatically in the last 36 hours. Greg Brower now has a real race on his hands up north, while Republicans now worry about a very vulnerable seat opening down south. And if Democrats can find the answer to the question on everyone's mind right now (as well as the title of this blog diary), this seat will indeed open up... And dash Republican hopes of retaking the State Senate.

Game Change? (#NVLeg Edition)

Until today, many pundits were questioning how Democrats could hold onto a very narrow one seat majority in the State Senate. Now, they're seeing the answers.

First off, State Senator Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) is resigning her old seat (Washoe 1 before redistricting) to run for the new SD 15.

Leslie’s decision to resign from Northern Nevada’s safest Democratic seat in order to run in a district where voter registration is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans will likely shift matchups in several legislative races.

“I’m probably the first person to give up a safe seat to run for a split one,” Leslie said. “This will be one of those rare things in Nevada politics: a truly competitive race.”

Leslie bought her new house in a nearby neighborhood but didn’t decide to move until redistricting was completed. The new house ended up in Senate District 15 under the maps drawn by the court.

Last week, after failing to recruit another Democrat to run against Brower, Leslie decided to move into her new house.

“After much thought, I have decided to move to the new Senate District 15,” she said in a written statement. “I believe my resignation is required, as I cannot live in two Senate districts at the same time. While this decision was difficult, I intend to be a candidate in my new neighborhood and hope to return to the state Senate later this year.”

As Anjeanette Damon noted in the Sun article, it's a bit of a risky move. However, it's also a move that can really pay off. It may also ultimately be the smart move.

After all, Damon noted the district voted 57% Obama in 2008 and 54% Reid in 2010. That's actually higher than my estimate from last fall! As I've said all along, the new SD 15 is a swing district that Democrats can definitely win. I'm just glad to see that Sheila Leslie and the Senate Democratic Caucus realize this.

And this has Greg Brower and Michael Roberson running scared. After all, this will be the first time Brower faces the voters since he turned so far to the right in last year's legislative session... Which turned out to be an audition for the NV-02 gig he couldn't get. He's in deep trouble now.

And in case that wasn't bad enough for Roberson and the Senate Republicans, Ralston tweeted earlier today that they're also facing problems over how to handle State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise) and her sudden departure from Nevada. Her husband filed for divorce last November after she called the cops on him. She first claimed he tried to force himself on her, but now folks have been wondering if she just fled with her new boyfriend out of state. Whatever the case, Halseth no longer looks to be in office... And Senate Republicans are trying to figure out how to avoid a special election in this district. Since my last estimate had the new SD 9 at 58% Obama 2008 and 53% Reid 2010, and since the new SD 9 is now a district with a Democratic registration advantage, Republicans may very well lose this district in an election this year.

Until today, all the pundits were talking about was that Democrats had two swing districts (5 in Green Valley-Henderson, 6 in Las Vegas-Summerlin) to defend. And yes, that doesn't change. However, what does change is that Republicans may also end up with two districts (15 in Western Reno, 9 in Southwest Vegas) of their own to defend. And while 5 & 6 lean more Democratic after redistricting, so do 9 & 15. That's what has Nevada Republicans panicking.

You know, it's amazing to watch tables turn. And after watching all of Michael Roberson's pompous blustering over this election, it's especially funny to watch the Nevada G-O-TEA clusterfuck arrive at his doorstep.

The Revolution at Our Doorstep... Will Be Televised

Just today, another local business leader admitted the obvious.

What we do see more and more is that it’s not low taxes that bring companies to Nevada necessarily. I think that’s something everybody’s really agreeing on now, which is why the whole package is important of what makes this a good place for people to come and do business, and live and bring their families. [...]

One of the things it gets back to is what makes Las Vegas an attractive place to do business. Why do they want to come to Southern Nevada versus going to Arizona or another region? We have to give people a good reason to want to come.

That was Sallie Doebler, President of the group formerly known as the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties. Her industry has been particularly hard hit. Even Doebler herself was affected, as her former Reno based company shut its Las Vegas office as construction demand dried up. She now runs her own consulting firm, and apparently now she's ready to say what so many of us had to learn the hard way.

Unfortunately, not everyone is as fortunate as Sallie Doebler. I saw that for myself last night, as The Nevada Legislature held a town hall on education and the state budget at Green Valley High School. There, a number of students, teachers, and concerned citizens begged legislators to realize what Sallie Doebler and others already have.





Are we really that much smarter than much of the bunch presently occupying Carson City? Do they not recognize reality? Are they totally tone deaf?

Funny enough, two freshman Republican legislators, State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Las Vegas) and Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas) seemed to prove just that.

Despite who was behind the tweet, Halseth or AFP Nevada, you have to wonder why they were so upset by the testimony they heard that they feel government must step in and prevent voters from speaking and having access to their elected officials.

Was it the 3rd grader with type 1 diabetes who didn't want his school nurse to be fired because he'd have no one to give him his insulin shot? The bus driver who faithfully performed her duties for Clark County School District for 30 years? [...] Or the mother of three who wanted her kids education to mean something when they graduate and go out into the world?

Funny enough, neither one was present, yet both Republican legislators took to Twitter to spread lies about unions "shutting out citizens". I also have to ask why they and their "Tea Party, Inc." patrons were so afraid of seeing so many Nevadans, including parents, local teachers, and students, speak the truth.

Are they now becoming afraid as more and more business folk and economists state the obvious fact that we'll never have a first rate economy with third world schools? Are they now afraid that more and more Nevadans are waking up and tasting the anthrax that's our failed state of "no taxes"? Whatever the case, perhaps the teabaggers are sensing the revolution at our doorstep... And they are scared.

Honestly, I'm still wondering if enough legislators really get it. However, I'm suddenly feeling something I haven't genuinely felt in some time.I think I have hope again.

If so many people can take the time to send this powerful message, can Carson City keep ignoring us? It's finally starting to look like the revolution will be televised, after all. Can they really tune all of us out?