Wednesday, June 15, 2011

NV-Sen: Haven't We Seen This Before?

The poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was taken June 11-14 by Mark Mellman, who is also Shelley Berkley's pollster. Before the partisans discount it (42-37):

1. Mellman knows Nevada. His surveys for Harry Reid in 2010 were unerring.

2. The results are not that surprising and virtually mirror what he found in March.

3. Appointed Sen. Dean Heller's negatives are up a bit, thanks to the Democratic pounding. But he has lost only a statistically insignificant one point and still a lot of undecideds this far out.

Ralston caught wind of this, and now everyone is talking. What does this mean? Do internal polls matter?

Remember this. When Harry Reid's campaign looked for polling to base targeting and messaging decisions upon, it didn't want to pay for fluff. That's why it went with the best, and Mellman is among the best here.

CNN, Razzy, and the others, OTOH, just wanted something to show the on-lookers from elsewhere, and they didn't bother paying attention to the rules to getting good Nevada results. That's why they all showed Angle slightly ahead last October, and that's why they all ended up with egg in their faces last November.

Just remember that as all the pundits now try to spin this poll's results.

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