Last week, we saw the fruit of all that hard labor in voter registration that Nevada Democrats took part in. But wait, there's even more! In this week's Clark County report, we probably have at least 98% of the final voter registration forms in Southern Nevada reported. And here's what we find:
- Countywide, Democrats now have 126,949 more registered voters than Republicans. That makes for a 14.95% Democratic registration advantage here in Clark County. Just last Monday, Democrats had a 14.32% (or 119,314 raw vote) voter registration advantage.
- Democrats are also closing strong in the two key Congressional races here. In NV-03, Democrats rose from a 5,483 raw vote (or 1.66%) registration advantage last Monday to a 6,899 raw vote (or 2.06%) advantage. And in the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats soared from a 44,252 raw vote (or 16.90%) advantage last Monday to a 47,029 raw vote (or 17.61%) lead now.
- Democrats are also finishing well in the key State Senate races which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' advantage rose from 4.97% last week to 5.33% today. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage rose from 6.67% last week to 7.12% today. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage rose from 7.64% last week to 8.06% today. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans actually held steady... In clinging onto their tiny 0.01% "barely there" edge.
As you can see above, overall Democrats made even more astounding gains in voter registration in Southern Nevada as the high backlog of forms last week was being processed, along with the "in person" registrations that were allowed. But as registration officially comes to a close tomorrow, we should finally know the full and final statewide registration numbers later this week. But so far after looking at the tea leaves here in Clark County, Nevada Democrats may very well end up with a 90,000 raw vote edge, or 7% voter registration advantage. And considering where they started in March, it's been quite an amazing ride.
Monday, October 15, 2012
How Democrats Win: On the Ground
Last Friday, Jon Ralston wrote a column that seemed so strangely and simultaneously prescient and deja vu.
Long story short: The vast majority of public polling of Nevada is wrong. And it's wrong precisely because these pollsters use "likely voter models" which throw out too many likely Democratic voters, such as Latinos, youth, and people who work the night shift on The Strip and can't answer most pollsters' calls.
So how is this deja vu? Well, let's step into our time machine and rewind to October 2010. In the DC Beltway, the pundits were discussing the details of Harry Reid's political funeral and the coronation of new "Tea Party Queen" and "Soon to Be Senator" Sharron Angle. But in and around the Las Vegas Beltway, those "in the know" knew better. What was key was the ground game, mainly that Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats actually had one while Angle and her "tea party" BFFs were bumbling around with their fancy phones and three-people-to-one-clipboard (No, I'm not kidding or exaggerating!) antics.
In 2010, many pundits just assumed that "TEA" fueled "momentum" would thrust Sharron Angle over the top. What they failed to notice was the phenomenal ground game built by Nevada Democrats. So while Harry Reid was giving his victory speech at Aria, local Democrats were cheering while pundits back in DC were dropping their jaws in total shock.
Fast forward to now. Once again, Nevada Democrats have been incredibly busy in the field. They've been making gains in voter registration like no one had expected just six months ago. Oh, and that's not all.
Last weekend, a group of LA County Young Democrats drove here from Southern California to help the local Nevada Democratic field office in knocking more doors and making more calls. Even more volunteers have been coming in lately because early voting will begin this Saturday. So the field organizers wanted to kick into high gear and get ready for EGOTV ("early get out the vote").
On the doors, volunteers talked to some newly registered Democrats, infrequent voters, and persuadable Nonpartisans & Republicans. So far, the Democrats have been mostly backing President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and John Oceguera, along with some Nonpartisans, while most of the rest of the Nonpartisans (and even a few of the Republicans!) seem to be keeping an open mind.
There were many volunteers grabbing clipboards and walk packets on Saturday. Yesterday, the office filled up again as a mix of the California helpers and local volunteers were making phone calls. The calls were going out to the same set of voters, and similar results were obtained. As one can see above, the "super organizers" at the Henderson field office have mastered the art of volunteer recruitment and retention.
So why does this all matter? Basically, Nevada Democrats have been expanding the electorate and "banking in" votes that most public pollsters aren't even expecting to vote. This is why most of the national and international media reports on the current state of play in Nevada diverge so wildly from what "those in the know" are actually seeing on the ground.
And especially now, more so than ever before, this work on the ground is incredibly valuable. With "tea party" aligned Super PACs dumping so much money into TV ads and "Astroturf" games, a strong field operation is critical in countering this. And so far, Nevada Democrats know exactly when and how to release their "Ace in the hole". It's really all about winning on the ground now.
The reason Harry Reid’s pollster, Mark Mellman, nailed the result in 2010 was that he correctly forecast what the demographics of the turnout would look like – how many Hispanics, how much Clark County would be of the total, the difference between GOP and Democratic turnout. And the better pollsters know how to change their models as the campaign evolves, to adjust for whatever atmospherics require some adjustment.
One of the more obvious factors is voter registration, especially in a high-turnout, presidential year, when 80 percent or so of voters will turn out, making likely voter samples not as important as in off-years, when turnout is about 50 percent here. The other important factor often not employed by pollsters in Nevada –especially those who have not been conducting surveys in the state for very long – is history.
Both of those indicators tell me that a series of recent polls do not take into account either the surge in Democratic registration or recent history – i.e. the last two cycles.
Long story short: The vast majority of public polling of Nevada is wrong. And it's wrong precisely because these pollsters use "likely voter models" which throw out too many likely Democratic voters, such as Latinos, youth, and people who work the night shift on The Strip and can't answer most pollsters' calls.
So how is this deja vu? Well, let's step into our time machine and rewind to October 2010. In the DC Beltway, the pundits were discussing the details of Harry Reid's political funeral and the coronation of new "Tea Party Queen" and "Soon to Be Senator" Sharron Angle. But in and around the Las Vegas Beltway, those "in the know" knew better. What was key was the ground game, mainly that Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats actually had one while Angle and her "tea party" BFFs were bumbling around with their fancy phones and three-people-to-one-clipboard (No, I'm not kidding or exaggerating!) antics.
In 2010, many pundits just assumed that "TEA" fueled "momentum" would thrust Sharron Angle over the top. What they failed to notice was the phenomenal ground game built by Nevada Democrats. So while Harry Reid was giving his victory speech at Aria, local Democrats were cheering while pundits back in DC were dropping their jaws in total shock.
Fast forward to now. Once again, Nevada Democrats have been incredibly busy in the field. They've been making gains in voter registration like no one had expected just six months ago. Oh, and that's not all.
Last weekend, a group of LA County Young Democrats drove here from Southern California to help the local Nevada Democratic field office in knocking more doors and making more calls. Even more volunteers have been coming in lately because early voting will begin this Saturday. So the field organizers wanted to kick into high gear and get ready for EGOTV ("early get out the vote").
On the doors, volunteers talked to some newly registered Democrats, infrequent voters, and persuadable Nonpartisans & Republicans. So far, the Democrats have been mostly backing President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and John Oceguera, along with some Nonpartisans, while most of the rest of the Nonpartisans (and even a few of the Republicans!) seem to be keeping an open mind.
There were many volunteers grabbing clipboards and walk packets on Saturday. Yesterday, the office filled up again as a mix of the California helpers and local volunteers were making phone calls. The calls were going out to the same set of voters, and similar results were obtained. As one can see above, the "super organizers" at the Henderson field office have mastered the art of volunteer recruitment and retention.
So why does this all matter? Basically, Nevada Democrats have been expanding the electorate and "banking in" votes that most public pollsters aren't even expecting to vote. This is why most of the national and international media reports on the current state of play in Nevada diverge so wildly from what "those in the know" are actually seeing on the ground.
And especially now, more so than ever before, this work on the ground is incredibly valuable. With "tea party" aligned Super PACs dumping so much money into TV ads and "Astroturf" games, a strong field operation is critical in countering this. And so far, Nevada Democrats know exactly when and how to release their "Ace in the hole". It's really all about winning on the ground now.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
So Now, He's "All In"?
Every so often, Brian Sandoval reemerges to remind us all that he's "a contender". Never mind that he's continually snubbed by his own party. He still desperately wants to be seen as "a player" on the national G-O-TEA stage. This is why he's now swooping in to try to rescue Team Nevada... From themselves.
As is often the case with Team Nevada, this looks to be (yet another) case of them rushing to the media to save face. With only a week left until early voting begins and 25 days left until "Official Election Day", what can Brian Sandoval do now for Team Nevada? Oh yes, he can help them spin the media away from their voter registration fraud scandal, and from their complete failure in keeping up with Nevada Democrats in the field.
Still, that can only help Team Nevada so much. As Jon Ralston explained yesterday, the actual scene for Nevada Republicans may be worse than what we see now in the bulk of the public polls. They're in a real bind now, and there's not much left for them to do.
So of course, Team Nevada operatives rope Governor Sandoval into making a few more public appearances with them. But really, don't be fooled by the spin. If Sandoval really felt good about Romney's chances here, he would have done more for him earlier. And if Team Nevada were really in such a great position to rescue Romney and Dean Heller, they wouldn't be making such desperate moves now.
Sandoval will be the honorary chairman of Team Nevada, the joint effort by Republican campaigns, Sandoval confirmed on Thursday night.
"I will continue to do all I can to elect Republicans," Sandoval said. The governor's new role with the Republican campaigns was first reported by Jon Ralston this week.
Sandoval urged a room of about 100 people in Reno on Thursday night to volunteer.
"We have momentum. It's a dead heat right now," he said before the debate between Rep. Paul Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden. "It will take all of us knocking on doors."
Team Nevada and Sandoval's political adviser, Mike Slanker, would not confirm the governor's role on Friday or explain how he would be utilized by the campaign.
Sandoval spoke in Tampa, Fla., at the Republican National Convention and has helped GOP candidates raise money. But Sandoval, who endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry early in the Republican presidential nomination process, has not taken a highly visible role as a surrogate Mitt Romney. He has also distanced himself from the Nevada Republican Party, which has been taken over by backers of Rep. Ron Paul. That fracture was what prompted the campaigns to form Team Nevada as the primary campaign function.
As is often the case with Team Nevada, this looks to be (yet another) case of them rushing to the media to save face. With only a week left until early voting begins and 25 days left until "Official Election Day", what can Brian Sandoval do now for Team Nevada? Oh yes, he can help them spin the media away from their voter registration fraud scandal, and from their complete failure in keeping up with Nevada Democrats in the field.
Still, that can only help Team Nevada so much. As Jon Ralston explained yesterday, the actual scene for Nevada Republicans may be worse than what we see now in the bulk of the public polls. They're in a real bind now, and there's not much left for them to do.
So of course, Team Nevada operatives rope Governor Sandoval into making a few more public appearances with them. But really, don't be fooled by the spin. If Sandoval really felt good about Romney's chances here, he would have done more for him earlier. And if Team Nevada were really in such a great position to rescue Romney and Dean Heller, they wouldn't be making such desperate moves now.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Nevada Democrats Nearing 7% Voter Registration Advantage
On Monday, we discussed the incredible voter registration gains that Nevada Democrats have achieved. Apparently, they're still not done gaining yet! Ralston just leaked the new statewide numbers with county breakdowns.
Just since Monday's report, Democrats' registration advantage grew from 14.32% to 14.88% as more registration forms have been processed. And apparently because the Clark County Election Department still (!!!) processing voter registration forms turned in last week, this may not even be the end of it.
Oh, and then there's Washoe County. Just since Tuesday's official Secretary of State report, Republicans' advantage in Washoe shrank some more, slipping from 1.03% (or 2,385 raw votes) to a mere 0.68% (or 1,620 raw votes). It looks like Democrats are also making big gains in the Reno area.
And again, we're not even done yet. More registrations up north and down south need to be counted. So keep that in mind when examining the current 86,325 raw vote advantage for Nevada Democrats. That makes for a 6.93% Democratic advantage statewide. If Democrats keep gaining on Republicans at a rate even close to what we've been seeing since the start of the summer, Nevada Democrats will probably close with a 7% statewide voter registration advantage.
Next week, we should finally see the full, official, and final registration report from the state. But in the mean time, there's growing evidence showing just how strong of a position Democrats are to keep Nevada a Blue State.
The Democrats now have a larger voter registration edge over Republicans in populous Clark County than in 2008, when the party swept to top-to-bottom victories.
The numbers continue to make Mitt Romney's path to victory very difficult and Dean Heller's road to a full Senate term quite problematic. [...]
The latest Clark County numbers show the Democrats now have a 125,441-voter lead. It was 125,218 in '08. Considering how different the world is -- not so hopey and changey -- that is remarkable.
The statewide edge, as of yesterday, is a little more than 86,000. And they are still counting thousands of new registrations in Clark
Just since Monday's report, Democrats' registration advantage grew from 14.32% to 14.88% as more registration forms have been processed. And apparently because the Clark County Election Department still (!!!) processing voter registration forms turned in last week, this may not even be the end of it.
Oh, and then there's Washoe County. Just since Tuesday's official Secretary of State report, Republicans' advantage in Washoe shrank some more, slipping from 1.03% (or 2,385 raw votes) to a mere 0.68% (or 1,620 raw votes). It looks like Democrats are also making big gains in the Reno area.
And again, we're not even done yet. More registrations up north and down south need to be counted. So keep that in mind when examining the current 86,325 raw vote advantage for Nevada Democrats. That makes for a 6.93% Democratic advantage statewide. If Democrats keep gaining on Republicans at a rate even close to what we've been seeing since the start of the summer, Nevada Democrats will probably close with a 7% statewide voter registration advantage.
Next week, we should finally see the full, official, and final registration report from the state. But in the mean time, there's growing evidence showing just how strong of a position Democrats are to keep Nevada a Blue State.
NV-03: How Heck Lost His Cool (& Oceguera Got His Groove Back)
Fresh off last night's debate, John Oceguera stopped by Nevada Democrats' NV-03 field office to thank volunteers. Overall, the mood in the office was quite cheerful... Well, at least until last night's massive storm hit.
And considering what happened last night, we can see why Oceguera was so cheerful.
Joe Heck never likes being confronted with his own record. So when asked about women's rights, all he could do was make excuses. Oh, he couldn't vote for a rape crisis program because the bill that it was a part of was loaded with "pork" (like funding for trails and historical records... And it passed on a bipartisan 17-3 vote). And he couldn't vote to expand access to the HPV/cervical cancer vaccine because it would have been like coddling "smokers who contract lung cancer". Oh, and he still can't let the bipartisan backed reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act because of "teh gayz" and "these people". Joe Heck just doesn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions.
That was pretty much the recurring theme throughout last night's NV-03 debate. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own vote to defund Head Start. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own repeated efforts to cut investment in public education. Basically, Joe Heck refused to take responsibility for anything. He was just looking for someone else to blame.
This is why he lost his cool last night... And this is why he's in more political danger than he wants to acknowledge.
And considering what happened last night, we can see why Oceguera was so cheerful.
The most heated exchange came when Oceguera was asked about a recent television ad in which he accuses Heck of being callous toward the needs of rape victims.
[Vegas PBS' Mitch] Fox pointedly asked Oceguera if he still stood by the ad, which many political observers said crossed the line of fair play.
“Yes. I will stand by that ad, and here’s why,” said Oceguera, who indicated that his mother was a victim of domestic violence. “Congressman Heck’s record on women’s health and safety is clear. He voted to weaken the Violence Against Women Act, he voted twice to defund Planned Parenthood … It goes back to his history in the legislature where he voted to not fund domestic violence programs, rape crisis programs and vaccine to help women to be protected from cervical cancer.”
Heck shot back that Oceguera was purposefully distorting his record. [...]
The 1994 Violence Against Women Act is up for renewal this year, and competing House and Senate versions have yet to be reconciled. The House version excludes provisions that would protect immigrant victims from abusers who would use their immigration status against them, and that explicitly authorize services for gay, lesbian, transgender and bisexual victims.
Joe Heck never likes being confronted with his own record. So when asked about women's rights, all he could do was make excuses. Oh, he couldn't vote for a rape crisis program because the bill that it was a part of was loaded with "pork" (like funding for trails and historical records... And it passed on a bipartisan 17-3 vote). And he couldn't vote to expand access to the HPV/cervical cancer vaccine because it would have been like coddling "smokers who contract lung cancer". Oh, and he still can't let the bipartisan backed reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act because of "teh gayz" and "these people". Joe Heck just doesn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions.
That was pretty much the recurring theme throughout last night's NV-03 debate. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own vote to defund Head Start. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own repeated efforts to cut investment in public education. Basically, Joe Heck refused to take responsibility for anything. He was just looking for someone else to blame.
This is why he lost his cool last night... And this is why he's in more political danger than he wants to acknowledge.
NV-Sen: More Baloney from Dean Heller
Yesterday, some Democrats actually got this in the mail.
Yep, Dean Heller actually sent this. He's obviously hoping that his "moderate" baloney will be enough to win over enough crossover support to keep him in office. The problem for Heller is that his message sounds just as cheap and flimsy as the production value of this mail piece.
Dean Heller claims he wants "bipartisan" budget solutions, yet he's been backing an extreme push for unbalanced nonsense that would plunge our economy into deeper recession and unemployment if passed. Oh, and it would require cuts on everything from Medicare to children's health care to Pell Grants to infrastructure investment. It's so extreme that not even Paul Ryan's Medicare busting budget could pass muster!
Oh, but of course, Dean Heller has also backed Paul Ryan's plan. And he even voted to throw America into default and threatened a new global crisis last year just because what was being discussed at the bipartisan debt ceiling negotiations was "not good enough" for him. Yet all of a sudden, we're supposed to forget all of this and embrace Dean Heller and his new "moderate" persona?
That's what he was hoping for at last night's debate. But interestingly enough, it all unraveled when he let a little something slip.
Just as we discussed last night, this is becoming a big problem for Heller. Already, he's been bleeding support among Latin@ voters because his actions haven't matched his rhetoric. But now that Heller is letting slip his real feelings toward las comunidades Latinas en Nevada, this will only further complicate whatever "Hispanic outreach efforts" he has left.
So Dean Heller has been trying one more time to pull some wool over Nevadans' eyes and make his "moderate" balonet look and smell like real beef. Unfortunately for him, it's become more obvious that something just doesn't smell right.
Yep, Dean Heller actually sent this. He's obviously hoping that his "moderate" baloney will be enough to win over enough crossover support to keep him in office. The problem for Heller is that his message sounds just as cheap and flimsy as the production value of this mail piece.
Dean Heller claims he wants "bipartisan" budget solutions, yet he's been backing an extreme push for unbalanced nonsense that would plunge our economy into deeper recession and unemployment if passed. Oh, and it would require cuts on everything from Medicare to children's health care to Pell Grants to infrastructure investment. It's so extreme that not even Paul Ryan's Medicare busting budget could pass muster!
Oh, but of course, Dean Heller has also backed Paul Ryan's plan. And he even voted to throw America into default and threatened a new global crisis last year just because what was being discussed at the bipartisan debt ceiling negotiations was "not good enough" for him. Yet all of a sudden, we're supposed to forget all of this and embrace Dean Heller and his new "moderate" persona?
That's what he was hoping for at last night's debate. But interestingly enough, it all unraveled when he let a little something slip.
On immigration, Heller said he was willing to work with Democrats on reform. He said he supported a pathway to citizenship for those who came here illegally and served in the military or are getting an education.
He said he also supports efforts to push English-only legislation and making it easier to immigrate to the country legally.
“So the principles that I’m trying to support is trying to make these people succeed,” he said. “I want them to succeed here in this country.”
Democrats Thursday night pounced on his reference to “these people,” setting up a conference call with Latino leaders for Friday morning.
“I am deeply insulted by Sen. Heller's disrespectful remarks,” state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, D-Las Vegas, said in a statement moments after the debate.
Just as we discussed last night, this is becoming a big problem for Heller. Already, he's been bleeding support among Latin@ voters because his actions haven't matched his rhetoric. But now that Heller is letting slip his real feelings toward las comunidades Latinas en Nevada, this will only further complicate whatever "Hispanic outreach efforts" he has left.
So Dean Heller has been trying one more time to pull some wool over Nevadans' eyes and make his "moderate" balonet look and smell like real beef. Unfortunately for him, it's become more obvious that something just doesn't smell right.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
First Thoughts on Nevada Debates
NV-Sen:
"These people"? Seriously, Dean Heller? No wonder why he's sinking among Latino voters.
And this was only the start of Dean Heller's follies. He tried to blame Harry Reid for his own failure to round up his fellow Republicans to legalize web poker. He tried to blame the Vegas PBS power outage on not enough "Drill Baby Drill". And he tried to blame lawyers for his own decision to block the Paycheck Fairness Act. And he tried to blame anyone else he could for his own votes for the Romney/Ryan plan to gut the middle class.
Long story short- Dean Heller just didn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions. All Shelley Berkley had to do to refute his words was point our his own record. And wow, she did it.
NV-03:
Yikes. Joe Heck just doesn't like it when he gets exposed. And my goodness, did he get exposed!
It wasn't hard to tell Heck was irritated when asked about his own comments and actions on Social Security and Medicare. He just couldn't come up with a simple answer to support his support for the Romney/Ryan plan... So he just lost it.
Heck amazingly continued to defend Mitt Romney's call to "don't stop the foreclosure process". Instead, he seems to want to speed it up! In a region that not too long ago was the epicenter of the housing meltdown, could Joe Heck be any more callous?
Heck also crumbled when asked on women's rights. He tried to walk back his blocking of the Violence Against Women Act by claiming it had miscellaneous provisions. John Oceguera responded by asking Heck if he actually thought LGBTQ and other minority women didn't matter. That was quite the powerful moment.
All in all, Joe Heck lost his cool. Need I say more?
NV-04:
Danny Tarkanian was first asked on immigration... And he barely hid his true "tea party" colors in showing his support for "Arizona taking action" to discriminate against people.
He was also asked about Social Security and Medicare... And he completely contradicted himself by promising not to cut the very benefits he seeks to cut.
Oh, and Tark's big plan for economic development for Nevada is... NUCLEAR WASTE??!! Seriously, he wants to open a nuclear waste dump at Yucca Mountain.
Steven Horsford shared his powerful personal story when explaining the Affordable Care Act. And he showed his legislative gravitas when describing his work across the aisle with Brian Sandoval in crafting Nevada's new economic development plan. And it really looked cheap when Baby Tark attacked him over his life story... When Baby Tark has a $17 million judgment hanging over his head!
Oh, and Baby Tark did it, too! He referred to LGBTQ folk as "these people". Seriously, why did he and Dean Heller think this was "great debate strategy"?
Grand Summary:
On the heels of Joe Biden's solid performance in the Vice Presidential Debate, it looks like Nevada Democrats did well here as well. And all 3 Nevada Republicans on the Vegas PBS debate stage just choked when confronted with their own party's creeping extremism... And their own participation in it.
Wow, what a night.
"These people"? Seriously, Dean Heller? No wonder why he's sinking among Latino voters.
And this was only the start of Dean Heller's follies. He tried to blame Harry Reid for his own failure to round up his fellow Republicans to legalize web poker. He tried to blame the Vegas PBS power outage on not enough "Drill Baby Drill". And he tried to blame lawyers for his own decision to block the Paycheck Fairness Act. And he tried to blame anyone else he could for his own votes for the Romney/Ryan plan to gut the middle class.
Long story short- Dean Heller just didn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions. All Shelley Berkley had to do to refute his words was point our his own record. And wow, she did it.
NV-03:
Yikes. Joe Heck just doesn't like it when he gets exposed. And my goodness, did he get exposed!
It wasn't hard to tell Heck was irritated when asked about his own comments and actions on Social Security and Medicare. He just couldn't come up with a simple answer to support his support for the Romney/Ryan plan... So he just lost it.
Heck amazingly continued to defend Mitt Romney's call to "don't stop the foreclosure process". Instead, he seems to want to speed it up! In a region that not too long ago was the epicenter of the housing meltdown, could Joe Heck be any more callous?
Heck also crumbled when asked on women's rights. He tried to walk back his blocking of the Violence Against Women Act by claiming it had miscellaneous provisions. John Oceguera responded by asking Heck if he actually thought LGBTQ and other minority women didn't matter. That was quite the powerful moment.
All in all, Joe Heck lost his cool. Need I say more?
NV-04:
Danny Tarkanian was first asked on immigration... And he barely hid his true "tea party" colors in showing his support for "Arizona taking action" to discriminate against people.
He was also asked about Social Security and Medicare... And he completely contradicted himself by promising not to cut the very benefits he seeks to cut.
Oh, and Tark's big plan for economic development for Nevada is... NUCLEAR WASTE??!! Seriously, he wants to open a nuclear waste dump at Yucca Mountain.
Steven Horsford shared his powerful personal story when explaining the Affordable Care Act. And he showed his legislative gravitas when describing his work across the aisle with Brian Sandoval in crafting Nevada's new economic development plan. And it really looked cheap when Baby Tark attacked him over his life story... When Baby Tark has a $17 million judgment hanging over his head!
Oh, and Baby Tark did it, too! He referred to LGBTQ folk as "these people". Seriously, why did he and Dean Heller think this was "great debate strategy"?
Grand Summary:
On the heels of Joe Biden's solid performance in the Vice Presidential Debate, it looks like Nevada Democrats did well here as well. And all 3 Nevada Republicans on the Vegas PBS debate stage just choked when confronted with their own party's creeping extremism... And their own participation in it.
Wow, what a night.
Look Who's Playing in #NVLeg Races Now
In case you thought Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson were too busy attacking President Obama with all their "PAC attacks" to bother with the rest of the ballot, there's more evidence proving that you're wrong. Just take a look at what they're doing now.
In case you were wondering about the loads of mail, billboards, and other ads (attacking Democrats and/or promoting Republicans) that have been popping up lately, now you know how they've been paid for.
So why are they playing in #NVLeg races now? Basically, they know what's at stake. And they want to strengthen their grip on power both in Carson City and in Washington, DC.
Remember what we discussed in February.
Wynn & Adelson are threatened by this, so they want to stop it. Expect even more of their big bucks to drop in the coming days, as we're now in the closing month of the 2012 campaign. It's all about maintaining their power and the status quo for them.
Companies controlled by Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson, the two most vocal casino operators who have been critical of national Democrats, particularly President Barack Obama, have contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to a Republican group focused on state-level races, according to IRS filings and interviews with Republican operatives.
That committee, the Republican State Leadership Committee, has been funding mail pieces in the five competitive Nevada Senate races that will determine whether Republicans can wrest control of the state’s upper house from Democrats.
The Republican State Leadership Committee received a $475,000 contribution from Wynn Resorts in July, and $150,000 from the Las Vegas Sands, the company controlled by Adelson, in 2011.
Multiple Republican political sources confirmed that additional sums targeted at the state Senate level had been committed by the companies, though they would not provide exact figures. Tax documents for the group, which voluntarily reports contributions and expenses on a monthly basis, were only available for the period through Aug. 31.
In case you were wondering about the loads of mail, billboards, and other ads (attacking Democrats and/or promoting Republicans) that have been popping up lately, now you know how they've been paid for.
So why are they playing in #NVLeg races now? Basically, they know what's at stake. And they want to strengthen their grip on power both in Carson City and in Washington, DC.
Remember what we discussed in February.
So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better.
Wynn & Adelson are threatened by this, so they want to stop it. Expect even more of their big bucks to drop in the coming days, as we're now in the closing month of the 2012 campaign. It's all about maintaining their power and the status quo for them.
Why the Housing Market Is Finally Healing
For such a long time, we've become accustomed to bad news on housing... That I couldn't quite believe my eyes at first when I saw this.
Last October, we were #1 in foreclosures and had more than 3 times as many. While there's still too much pain happening in the housing market here, it's increasingly looking like the market is healing.
So why are we finally seeing some healing now? Much of it has to do with state policies here. AB 149 was a good start in making the big banks take negotiation with distressed homeowners seriously, and further action to require proper documentation before foreclosing on a property has also helped bring down the foreclosure rate.
However, Nevada may have also been helped in the past year by recent federal action that finally seems to be taking hold and providing relief. Yesterday, Salon's Andrew Leonard noted the interesting evolution of housing policy under the Obama Administration, and how it's finally working.
It's taken a while. And during that period, people were still suffering. But now, we're seeing progress. And it's largely thanks to both and state and federal policies meant to help distressed homeowners find relief and stay in their homes.
Contrary to what Mitt Romney and the "tea party" claimed were foolish attempts to "stop the foreclosure process", it turns out that meaningful policies to stem the crushing tidal wave of foreclosures can actually work when given a chance. Don't believe me? Step out the front door. There aren't as many front doors marred by blue tape and legal notices, and that really is a good thing.
Nevada’s foreclosure rate remains fifth in the nation after big drops in activity compared with last year.
RealtyTrac reports Thursday that Nevada’s September foreclosure rate is down 19 percent from August and down more than 75 percent from the same time last year.
The drop reflects the national foreclosure picture for the month of September. RealtyTrac reports the lowest total number of foreclosure filings nationally since July 2007.
Last October, we were #1 in foreclosures and had more than 3 times as many. While there's still too much pain happening in the housing market here, it's increasingly looking like the market is healing.
So why are we finally seeing some healing now? Much of it has to do with state policies here. AB 149 was a good start in making the big banks take negotiation with distressed homeowners seriously, and further action to require proper documentation before foreclosing on a property has also helped bring down the foreclosure rate.
However, Nevada may have also been helped in the past year by recent federal action that finally seems to be taking hold and providing relief. Yesterday, Salon's Andrew Leonard noted the interesting evolution of housing policy under the Obama Administration, and how it's finally working.
The housing sector is clearly rebounding —home prices are rising, mortgage delinquencies are falling, inventory of unsold houses is shrinking. As a result, consumer confidence is growing and Americans are feeling more comfortable risking their savings on big, economically relevant purchases, like new cars.
A clear case can be made that government policy has played a crucial role in this rebound. There are two parts to the story. First, the Fed’s most recent round of monetary stimulus push —aka quantitative easing —has pushed mortgage interest rates to an absurdly low 3.5 percent, encouraging a wave of new refinancing and new purchase activity.
Second, the White House’s latest, greatest plan to help homeowners, the Home Affordable Refinance Program 2.0, has gained real traction, helping homeowners underwater on their mortgages become eligible to refinance. According to a Bloomberg report, “since the start of 2012, there's been a 65 percent increase in refis for borrowers who owe at least 20 percent more than their homes are worth; HARP now accounts for about a quarter of all refis.”
The Fed’s new determination to pursue monetary stimulus until the unemployment rate falls significantly is at least in part due to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s ability to rally support from Obama’s new appointees to the Federal Reserve. The relative success of HARP 2.0 is a tribute to the administration’s willingness to keep tinkering with policy levers until it found something that worked. In both cases, you can argue that the administration took far too long to exert its will, but this is also clearly a case of better late then never. If you want to understand why the number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track is finally dropping, the housing rebound offers one of the best explanations, and some portion of responsibility for that goes to the administration.
It's taken a while. And during that period, people were still suffering. But now, we're seeing progress. And it's largely thanks to both and state and federal policies meant to help distressed homeowners find relief and stay in their homes.
Contrary to what Mitt Romney and the "tea party" claimed were foolish attempts to "stop the foreclosure process", it turns out that meaningful policies to stem the crushing tidal wave of foreclosures can actually work when given a chance. Don't believe me? Step out the front door. There aren't as many front doors marred by blue tape and legal notices, and that really is a good thing.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
NV-01: Yes, Chris Edwards Deserves a Debate... With Himself.
Ah, so Chris Edwards is back. It seems whenever we're in the midst of important developments in the hot races that people are actually paying attention to, Chris Edwards jumps out in a desperate move to grab attention. This is exactly what he's doing today... With help from our (never to be) "trusted" local "newspaper".
Oh, yes. They went there. Again!
While I certainly appreciate the value of debates in informing voters, Chris Edwards should think twice before cheering on his favorite "newspaper" and demanding more debates. Oh, and he should actually decide what he stands for!
He keeps claiming that somehow "Dina Titus hates Hispanics!" Yet so far, he has no proof of that. And whenever asked about his own ideas for Latin@ community empowerment, he is never able to separate himself from his own party's nonstop insults directed at Latin@ voters. Perhaps this is because Chris Edwards really does agree with his own G-O-TEA base on this?
And really, what else can Chris Edwards talk about? He contradicts himself on the Recovery Act. He can't say anything on health care. He can't completely decide how he wants to balance the federal budget. And again, he has no real substance when it comes to Latin@ outreach. So really, who is this dude and why is he running?
Before Chris Edwards demands more debates with Dina Titus, he needs to finish the debate he continues to have with himself.
Oh, yes. They went there. Again!
While I certainly appreciate the value of debates in informing voters, Chris Edwards should think twice before cheering on his favorite "newspaper" and demanding more debates. Oh, and he should actually decide what he stands for!
He keeps claiming that somehow "Dina Titus hates Hispanics!" Yet so far, he has no proof of that. And whenever asked about his own ideas for Latin@ community empowerment, he is never able to separate himself from his own party's nonstop insults directed at Latin@ voters. Perhaps this is because Chris Edwards really does agree with his own G-O-TEA base on this?
And really, what else can Chris Edwards talk about? He contradicts himself on the Recovery Act. He can't say anything on health care. He can't completely decide how he wants to balance the federal budget. And again, he has no real substance when it comes to Latin@ outreach. So really, who is this dude and why is he running?
Before Chris Edwards demands more debates with Dina Titus, he needs to finish the debate he continues to have with himself.
Why Did the Frog Give the Scorpion a Ride?
And the beat goes on. Never mind the current state of our schools...
NPRI wants to make an ideological point.
What makes this story so funny in such a sick way is that that very CCSD machine aided and abetted NPRI earlier this year.
I said that just over two months ago, and I still stand by it today. Not only are attacking teachers and lying about finances bad policy, but they just make no political sense. Yet because CCSD administrators were so damned shortsighted in cozying up to NPRI in order to bloody local teachers, ironically enough NPRI has reemerged... But now, they're fighting to defeat CCSD administrators and the bipartisan backed school bond initiative meant to fix our broken school infrastructure.
If CCSD leaders had just negotiated with teachers in good faith, come clean on their finances, and refrained from giving aid and comfort to their true ideological enemies (at NPRI), they wouldn't be facing the kind of political pickle that they face now. But instead they played with "TEA" fueled fire, and now they're at risk of being burned. And to make things worse, Clark County students are at risk of being burned, too.
NPRI wants to make an ideological point.
Even when NPRI sued the School District this summer — threatening to derail the tax question from appearing on the ballot — the nonprofit organization maintained it wasn't a political move.
On Tuesday, NPRI seemed to have finally taken a public stance on the issue.
NPRI spokesman Victor Joecks published an article on its website that blasted the district's tax-increase campaign as a "bait and switch" effort that would "hurt families (and) seniors, without increasing student achievement."
"The CCSD machine is, once more, waving the bait," Joecks said. "Don't bite.
What makes this story so funny in such a sick way is that that very CCSD machine aided and abetted NPRI earlier this year.
Many tried to warn CCSD administrators not to get too cozy with NPRI. After all, NPRI's goal is to starve public education to death! What on earth made Dwight Jones and Amanda Fulkerson believe that Victor Joecks and his merry band of "think tank" teabaggers cared one iota about improving public education? No matter how often they'd let NPRI stooges "slip" into CCSD's secure email network meant for official school business only, NPRI would eventually reach this point and sting them like this. [...]
They really should have known better. NPRI doesn't give a shit about our kids suffering under excessive heat and cold in decrepit public schools. If that means its PR hacks can spin the "OUTRAGE!!!" into further dismantling CCSD altogether and privatizing even more of what should be public education, then NPRI is happy. Frog, meet scorpion.
I said that just over two months ago, and I still stand by it today. Not only are attacking teachers and lying about finances bad policy, but they just make no political sense. Yet because CCSD administrators were so damned shortsighted in cozying up to NPRI in order to bloody local teachers, ironically enough NPRI has reemerged... But now, they're fighting to defeat CCSD administrators and the bipartisan backed school bond initiative meant to fix our broken school infrastructure.
If CCSD leaders had just negotiated with teachers in good faith, come clean on their finances, and refrained from giving aid and comfort to their true ideological enemies (at NPRI), they wouldn't be facing the kind of political pickle that they face now. But instead they played with "TEA" fueled fire, and now they're at risk of being burned. And to make things worse, Clark County students are at risk of being burned, too.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
What They Really Mean When Crying "Integrity"
Today, the local "newspaper" posted an editorial on the importance of voter suppression "election integrity". They actually claimed that because some non-citizen accidentally got a postcard encouraging online voter registration, somehow Ross Miller is trying to steal the election for Obama... And use this to further his own career! In case you just can't read the entire piece, here's a quick summary.
No really, they might as well have let her write it. Even Jon Ralston tweeted that earlier. And it's crystal clear as to what they really want when they cry about "integrity".
Yet again, the G-O-TEA is demanding voter suppression because that's the only way it can win. As we've discussed before, the kind of "voter fraud" that Sharron Angle and The R-J Editorial Board claim to worry about so much is so rare that it's virtually nonexistent. If anything, they should be worried about the denial of voter registration to the state's poor, as well as the continuing voter registration fraud scandal started by operatives in their own party.
But they're not. Instead, they keep pursuing "integrity" via voter suppression. It pretty much reveals where the G-O-TEA's true priorities lie.
No really, they might as well have let her write it. Even Jon Ralston tweeted that earlier. And it's crystal clear as to what they really want when they cry about "integrity".
Yet again, the G-O-TEA is demanding voter suppression because that's the only way it can win. As we've discussed before, the kind of "voter fraud" that Sharron Angle and The R-J Editorial Board claim to worry about so much is so rare that it's virtually nonexistent. If anything, they should be worried about the denial of voter registration to the state's poor, as well as the continuing voter registration fraud scandal started by operatives in their own party.
But they're not. Instead, they keep pursuing "integrity" via voter suppression. It pretty much reveals where the G-O-TEA's true priorities lie.
Steve Wynn Still Doesn't Get It.
So Ralston interviewed Wynn (again). Here's how it went down.
We've talked before about Steve Wynn and his his irrational view of how government is supposed to work. But now, he's falling to a new low in letting his loathing of President Obama get in the way of facts.
For one, even Wynn himself admitted that Obama inherited a terrible economic crisis from George W. Bush. Yet despite the evidence showing steady job growth and economic recovery since we hit bottom in 2009, Steve Wynn wants us to believe that President Obama is some incompetent boob who knows nothing about the economy. So if Obama really caused some terrible economic catastrophe and can't figure out how to get us out of it, then why have Wynn's corporate profits been looking so good lately?
And while even Steve Wynn himself struggled to defend George W. Bush's economic record, he seemed more than eager to return to the very Bush policies that threw the country into the mess that President Obama inherited in 2009. He even showed a bit of frustration with Bush's tendency to "tax cut, borrow, and spend" his way out of any politically thorny situation, yet he doesn't want to notice how Mitt Romney's economic proposals mostly call for the same thing. In order to pay for all of Romney's favored tax cuts for the super rich and increased military spending, he will either have to raise taxes on the middle class & working poor, slash critical investment in our middle class that's the foundation of our economy... Or do what George Bush did and borrow more money to try to avoid making tough choices.
This is why I just can't take Steve Wynn seriously as an economic policy analyst. While he's been great at building great casino resorts, he isn't as great at realizing the true economic problems of our time (and how to solve them).
We've talked before about Steve Wynn and his his irrational view of how government is supposed to work. But now, he's falling to a new low in letting his loathing of President Obama get in the way of facts.
For one, even Wynn himself admitted that Obama inherited a terrible economic crisis from George W. Bush. Yet despite the evidence showing steady job growth and economic recovery since we hit bottom in 2009, Steve Wynn wants us to believe that President Obama is some incompetent boob who knows nothing about the economy. So if Obama really caused some terrible economic catastrophe and can't figure out how to get us out of it, then why have Wynn's corporate profits been looking so good lately?
And while even Steve Wynn himself struggled to defend George W. Bush's economic record, he seemed more than eager to return to the very Bush policies that threw the country into the mess that President Obama inherited in 2009. He even showed a bit of frustration with Bush's tendency to "tax cut, borrow, and spend" his way out of any politically thorny situation, yet he doesn't want to notice how Mitt Romney's economic proposals mostly call for the same thing. In order to pay for all of Romney's favored tax cuts for the super rich and increased military spending, he will either have to raise taxes on the middle class & working poor, slash critical investment in our middle class that's the foundation of our economy... Or do what George Bush did and borrow more money to try to avoid making tough choices.
This is why I just can't take Steve Wynn seriously as an economic policy analyst. While he's been great at building great casino resorts, he isn't as great at realizing the true economic problems of our time (and how to solve them).
Monday, October 8, 2012
NV-03: One More Reality Check for Joe Heck
This morning, The Sun had a fact check article on recent ads hitting Joe Heck on matters of women's health care. Karoun Demerjian pretty much confirmed the facts behind the ads, then said they deserved an "eye roll" because the CDC wasn't yet recommending broad coverage of the vaccine to cover cervical cancer.
But here's the thing: It didn't take long for them to come around. And in the mean time, there was more than enough information available to confirm what his fellow legislators agreed to. Here's what Nevada NOW did to set the record straight on what Heck did in 2007.
Oh, yes. He went there. And ever since his narrow election to Congress in 2010, he keeps going back there.
Joe Heck has even opposed reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act because he doesn't seem to mind violence against minority women! No really, this is what he's been doing.
Here's the thing: If Joe Heck really didn't have a "women problem", then why does he keep fighting in the G-O-TEA War on Women? If he doesn't really have a problem with women's civil right, then why does he keep voting against women's health care? From his vote to block access to the HPV vaccine to his votes to defund Planned Parenthood to his continuing opposition to the Violence Against Women Act, Joe Heck doesn't really seem to care about the well being of Nevada's women.
And it's long past due for Joe Heck to get a reality check on this.
But here's the thing: It didn't take long for them to come around. And in the mean time, there was more than enough information available to confirm what his fellow legislators agreed to. Here's what Nevada NOW did to set the record straight on what Heck did in 2007.
Leading American public health organizations that include the CDC, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the American Academy of Pediatrics recommend wide-spread vaccination, as do all public health agencies in Europe. Nevada NOW is baffled why Senator Joe Heck, as a doctor, would vote against a bill in the state legislature that brings such health benefits to Nevada’s women at no public cost. SB 409 does not mandate administration of the vaccine (as 22 other states plus the District of Columbia are considering or have passed). Four other states, in addition to Nevada, have passed bills like SB 409, which (as passed in 2007 and signed by Governor Gibbons) requires health insurance companies in Nevada to cover the vaccine for those who opt to have it administered to their daughters. Moreover, Prior to SB409, the vaccine was already covered by Medicaid (through the federally funded Vaccines for Children program), by Nevada Check-Up, and by most insurance plans in the state, so there was really no savings for any entity, public or private, in opposing the bill. There was, however, a great risk to the public health.
To explain himself, Heck compares the vast majority of women American women who will contract genital HPV to a smoker who contracts lung cancer. It is important to note here that conservative studies estimate one in five women nationally will be sexually assaulted in her lifetime, and that Nevada women are statistically more likely to be subject to coerced sex than the national average. We also understand from common sense that a woman cannot control the past or even the present partners of her husband, boyfriend or lover, so that a woman need not engage in “risky” behavior to be at risk for contracting HPV or cervical cancer. For these reasons, most in the Religious Right, including most conservative organizations in Nevada, have dropped their previously stalwart opposition to the vaccine. Senator Heck stands to the right of almost everyone in his opposition to making the vaccine more widely available.
If we were to draw Senator Heck’s analogy with smoking and lung cancer to the logical conclusion, all women should abstain from having sex. My advice to Senator Heck is to consult Mrs. Heck before he is tempted to make more misleading comparisons.
Oh, yes. He went there. And ever since his narrow election to Congress in 2010, he keeps going back there.
Joe Heck has even opposed reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act because he doesn't seem to mind violence against minority women! No really, this is what he's been doing.
Here's the thing: If Joe Heck really didn't have a "women problem", then why does he keep fighting in the G-O-TEA War on Women? If he doesn't really have a problem with women's civil right, then why does he keep voting against women's health care? From his vote to block access to the HPV vaccine to his votes to defund Planned Parenthood to his continuing opposition to the Violence Against Women Act, Joe Heck doesn't really seem to care about the well being of Nevada's women.
And it's long past due for Joe Heck to get a reality check on this.
Why Nevada WILL Remain a Blue State This Fall
So we now have a better sense of what the final voter registration totals will be. While we must wait a few more days for the final official statewide report, the Clark County (Metro Las Vegas) numbers point to a very strong finish for Nevada Democrats, which guarantees an 80,000+ raw vote Democratic advantage statewide. Just in the last week, Democrats expanded their registration advantage in Clark County from 109,305 voters (or 13.67%) to a whopping 119,314 voters (or 14.32%) just in the last week! And considering Nevada Democrats had a statewide lead of 71,561 (or 6.03%) voters last Tuesday, this kind of gain in the state's most populous county puts Democrats right where they want to be to hit the magic 80,000 marker.
So how have they been making this happen? Let me explain.
See the above photos? This was the scene at the Cowboy Barbeque in Old Town Henderson. Typically, one wouldn't expect multitudes of Democrats to register to vote here. However, Nevada is not some "typical state" and this was no typical event. Between the Nevada State Democratic Party (NV-Sen/NV-03) Coordinated Campaign volunteers and local Obama campaign volunteers, there was no corner of the event left uncovered. And believe it or not, people kept popping up to register to vote... With the bulk of them being Democrats!
And that wasn't even the start or the end of it. For 36 hours, Democratic organizers and volunteers were pounding the pavement everywhere from DMV offices to shopping malls to parks to big events like the local Renaissance Faire (no, really!) to register more voters. And in the end, all of this hard work looks to be paying off... In a very BIG way!
So what is the result of all this relentless hard work? Take a look at the key swing districts. In the Southern Vegas Valley based NV-03 swing district, Democrats expanded their registration edge from 3,402 raw votes (or 1.08%) to 5,483 (or 1.66%). In the Clark County portion of the other key swing Congressional seat that's the new Northern Vegas Valley based NV-04, Democrats expanded their advantage from 40,557 raw votes (or 16.15%) to 44,252 (or 16.90%). And remember that these are important races that will determine control of Congress next January, so gains here help on multiple levels.
But wait, there's more! Democrats also made even more big gains in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' edge grew from 4.51% to 4.97% in just the last week. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage grew further from 5.83% to 6.67%. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew some more in the last week from 6.95% to 7.64%. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans' edge was almost entirely wiped out in just one week, falling from 1.60% to an infintesimal 0.01%! And remember, Democrats only need to win two of these four seats (or one of these seats and the Washoe County based SD 15) to keep the State Senate.
All in all, Democrats rocked the final week of "anywhere, anytime" voter registration. (Only in person registration at county offices will be allowed until the 16th.) Oh, and Nevada pundit/political insider extraordinaire Jon Ralston just tweeted this.
As I've been saying all along, field matters. And because Nevada Democrats have been working the field like no one else can, President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford stand to gain like no one had expected just six months ago.
So how have they been making this happen? Let me explain.
See the above photos? This was the scene at the Cowboy Barbeque in Old Town Henderson. Typically, one wouldn't expect multitudes of Democrats to register to vote here. However, Nevada is not some "typical state" and this was no typical event. Between the Nevada State Democratic Party (NV-Sen/NV-03) Coordinated Campaign volunteers and local Obama campaign volunteers, there was no corner of the event left uncovered. And believe it or not, people kept popping up to register to vote... With the bulk of them being Democrats!
And that wasn't even the start or the end of it. For 36 hours, Democratic organizers and volunteers were pounding the pavement everywhere from DMV offices to shopping malls to parks to big events like the local Renaissance Faire (no, really!) to register more voters. And in the end, all of this hard work looks to be paying off... In a very BIG way!
So what is the result of all this relentless hard work? Take a look at the key swing districts. In the Southern Vegas Valley based NV-03 swing district, Democrats expanded their registration edge from 3,402 raw votes (or 1.08%) to 5,483 (or 1.66%). In the Clark County portion of the other key swing Congressional seat that's the new Northern Vegas Valley based NV-04, Democrats expanded their advantage from 40,557 raw votes (or 16.15%) to 44,252 (or 16.90%). And remember that these are important races that will determine control of Congress next January, so gains here help on multiple levels.
But wait, there's more! Democrats also made even more big gains in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' edge grew from 4.51% to 4.97% in just the last week. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage grew further from 5.83% to 6.67%. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew some more in the last week from 6.95% to 7.64%. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans' edge was almost entirely wiped out in just one week, falling from 1.60% to an infintesimal 0.01%! And remember, Democrats only need to win two of these four seats (or one of these seats and the Washoe County based SD 15) to keep the State Senate.
All in all, Democrats rocked the final week of "anywhere, anytime" voter registration. (Only in person registration at county offices will be allowed until the 16th.) Oh, and Nevada pundit/political insider extraordinaire Jon Ralston just tweeted this.
For those keeping score at home, the statewide lead for Dems over Republicans in NV has crossed 80K barrier. This is very bad news for GOP.
As I've been saying all along, field matters. And because Nevada Democrats have been working the field like no one else can, President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford stand to gain like no one had expected just six months ago.
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