Big Deal, Big Irony

Earlier this month, many were worried about the crisis in Syria. Then, after President Obama threatened use of military force against the Syrian Government for using chemical weapons against its own people, the real diplomacy began. And now, a deal is being reached.

The United States and Russia have been at odds on how to force the handover [of chemical weapons]. Those two countries negotiated the deal, and France played a large role in helping come up with compromise language, the sources said.

The deal includes a resolution with so-called Chapter 7 authority, a reference to a United Nations provision that allows member countries to take military and nonmilitary action to confront threats to peace and security.

The U.S. and Russia reached agreement earlier this month on the outlines of a plan to rid Syria of chemical weapons. Syria satisfied the first part of the plan last week, when it gave the world a catalog of its weapons stockpile.

The agreement envisions the removal of chemical weapons from Syria by the middle of next year.

Fortunately for everyone, the combination of tough talks and hard negotiations secured a real deal. A month ago, many were wondering when World War 3 would start. Now, all five permanent members of the UN Security Council have managed to agree on something... And something that truly is a big deal.

So why can't we feel good about this? The strange irony of today is that even when President Obama can forge agreements on the world stage, he can't even count on the G-O-TEA Mad House to agree with him on basic things like keeping the government open. Just as the Senate is about to finish a temporary federal budget agreement, House G-O-TEA "leaders" are threatening to blow it up and force a shutdown.

They're not even pretending to be sane any more. They're truly caving into pure batshit crazy.

The bill, obtained by the National Review, tacks on items including a one-year delay of Obamacare; tax reform in the image of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI); approval of the Keystone pipeline; expanded offshore drilling and other pro-oil and coal energy reforms; increases in military spending coupled with deeper cuts to domestic programs; repealing a fund in the financial regulatory reform bill; means testing for Medicare; repealing the Obamacare prevention and public health fund and medical malpractice reform.

One House GOP leadership aide didn't deny the contents of the summary but cautioned that it may not be final. The aims, however, reflect the direction the House of Representatives is taking and contains important clues as to how the debate will unfold. [...]

Democrats believe the Republican plan is [batshit] crazy. And President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) have repeatedly vowed not to make concessions in order to lift the debt ceiling. But Boehner is in a bind because the debt limit is a very tough vote for conservatives and he needs to dangle all sorts of enticements before them in order to win over most Republicans.

It's been nearly a year since President Obama won reelection and Democrats made net gains in Congress. Republicans lost the 2012 Election. But now, they want to re-fight the 2012 Election and threaten to blow up the world economy if Barack Obama doesn’t kill himself after directing Mitt Romney be appointed President they don't get their way?

They truly are fucking nuts. Who would have guessed Russia and Syria would be more willing to prevent global disaster than Congressional Republicans? Wow, what irony...

How Diplomacy Works

In the midst of all the latest and greatest manufactured crisis, it can be easy to forget about the real crises we face. Earlier this month, our eyes were on Syria as the nation seemed to be inching closer to joining the war already raging in that corner of the Middle East. But last week, President Obama scored a diplomatic breakthrough as Russia finally offered a deal for Syria to unload its chemical weapons that the US, France, and the UK could accept.

Since then, this story has continued... Along with the civil war. Unfortunately for many in Syria, the conflict remains. Yet even with some belligerent language continuing to creep into the international dialogue on Syria, an international consensus on how to remove the chemical weapons from the Assad Regime is still near.

And on top of this, we may be nearing another major diplomatic breakthrough. President Obama has recently exchanged letters with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, and a deal may be near to prevent Iran from developing its own stockpile of nuclear weapons. While there aren't any official plans (yet?) to normalize US relations with Iran, it at least looks like there's some sort of dialogue and some sort of budding agreement on (refraining from developing) nuclear weapons.

While there are clearly still challenges ahead, it looks like progress is being made. So why doesn't it seem this way? That's a good question. And it may have something to do with certain politicians and talking heads not understanding how diplomacy works.

Fortunately for everyone, progress is being made on Syria and Iran. And progress is being made without any shots being fired. This is how diplomacy works.

Sure, it may not be as salacious as provoking armed conflict. And it may not be as "sexy" as causing a stir on the pages of Pravda. But again, this is how diplomacy works... And this is why Capitol Hill has been able to shift focus from real crises back to the usual manufactured crisis.

12 Years Later

Twelve years ago, I woke up to my second day of school. I ate breakfast, threw on my uniform, and left. It wasn't until I arrived in my first period class when I learned of what was occurring on the other side of the nation.



At first, it was so shocking, especially for all of us in Orange County. What happened in New York? A plane crashed into The Pentagon as well? And there's a fourth plane still on the loose?

Eventually, it all sunk in. And September 11 would forever be associated with the events of this day twelve years ago.

Twelve years later, I woke up to this.



Twelve years later, we're still concerned about terrorism. We're still concerned about unbridled hate. We're still dealing with conspiracy theories. And we're still grappling with matters of war and peace.

In the past twelve years, we've experienced some painful moments in history. Yet in the past twelve years, we've also experienced major breakthroughs Who would have guessed back then we'd now have a President named Barack Obama, a still vibrant multicultural society, and real efforts to find diplomatic solutions to the world's problems?

Twelve years ago, this nation endured a horrific tragedy. Twelve years later, our nation still stands. And while there are still many problems facing us at home and abroad, there are also opportunities for us to learn and grow.

Twelve years ago, we were so shocked by what had just occurred that we rushed into two wars. Twelve years later, we may finally be giving peace a chance. Some things may be the same after twelve years, but others have changed.

Really?

A little earlier, we caught up on the latest news regarding the possible diplomatic breakthrough on Syria. The Obama Administration is now agreeing to UN talks on Syria. While White House officials are publicly leaving military options on the table, they are looking closely into Russia's latest offer.

So against this backdrop, Senator Dean Heller (R-??!!) finally announced his opposition to military action against Syria. Um... OK?! And this came on the heels of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Duck & Cover) announced his opposition to military action against Syria.

Why did they announce this today? Frankly, this feels awfully "day late and dollar short".

Many Members of Congress have had to struggle over this decision. And many have reached differing conclusions for various reasons. And yes, some have even still had trouble reaching a conclusion very recently.

However, it seems awfully odd that certain Republicans have quickly abandoned their bellicose foreign policy posturing "principles" to oppose President Obama no matter what. Some have even gone as far as to praise Russian President Vladimir Putin for recent developments while castigating President Obama for... Something, anything! And Republicans wonder why their party has become so dysfunctional?

Many on the left and on the right have differed with President Obama's Syria proposal for legitimate and principled reasons. That's not being questioned here. Rather, what is being questioned is politicians playing political games with the Syria issue.

In recent days, we've had a chance to have a legitimate debate on the use of force, and on the future of US foreign policy. It's just irritating to notice how some have tried to cheapen the debate by trying to score fast political points while ignoring the real policy issues at stake.

Peaceful Answer to the Syria Question?

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, the drumbeats of war sounded awfully loud. But today, a diplomatic solution to the Syria crisis looks near.



Just hours after Russia stepped forward with a proposal for Syria to turn over its chemical weapons stockpile to international control, France decided to test the seriousness of this proposal by submitting it to the United Nations (UN) Security Council for consideration. And the Syrian Government is now claiming it will comply with this agreement.

But then again, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was denying possession of chemical weapons just 48 hours ago. And Russia was openly challenging the veracity of Western intelligence on Syrian chemical weapons just last week. So is this offer truly in good faith?

This is why President Obama is proceeding cautiously. However, he is proceeding with this in hand. After all, this may be the breakthrough that the world has anxiously been waiting for.

Obama had planned to use [today's] meetings with Democratic and Republican senators to personally lobby for his plan of targeted strikes against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces in retaliation for last month’s massive chemical weapons attack outside of Damascus. Instead, he signaled in interviews ahead of his trip to Capitol Hill that new diplomacy involving Russia and others could eliminate the risks of a repeat chemical attack without requiring an American intervention. He presents his case to the American people Tuesday night.

“The key is, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan, that we don’t just trust, but we also verify,” Obama told CBS. “The importance is to make sure that the international community has confidence that these chemical weapons are under control, that they are not being used, that potentially they are removed from Syria and that they are destroyed.”

Yesterday, the numbers in Congress did not appear to be on the side of military intervention in Syria. But today, things may be changing. While intense skepticism remains, there are also new questions about this potential diplomatic solution. Yet with this diplomatic solution now on the table, this may provide an escape hatch for Members of Congress who were caught between a desire to "punish Syria & snub Russia", and real fear of the US being caught in another Middle East war.

Tonight, President Obama will be addressing the American people live. But now, he needs a new script... Or does he? At least now, the Syria Question may be nearing a peaceful answer.

The Syria Answer?

It's been on everyone's mind this past week. Rep. Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) has been thinking about it as well. And while he still hasn't yet announced a firm position on military intervention in Syria, he is sounding increasingly skeptical.



And he's not alone. The public remains largely skeptical of the utility of any kind of military action against Syria. And Congress is increasingly feeling pressure from the left and the right to reject anything seen as approval to join in the Syrian Civil War.

So is it game over for the Obama Administration on Syria? Perhaps... But with a twist.

Over the weekend, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that a deal was in the works for Syria to turn over its chemical weapons. Then, Russia's Foreign Ministry emerged with a plan for the Assad Regime to surrender its chemical weapons to "international control". And now, the Syrian government appears willing to surrender its chemical weapons.

Is this what President Obama wanted all along? If so, then his tough talk is finally making sense. And Rep. Horsford & other Members of Congress can now see the logic behind the Obama Administration's hard red line.

This past week, fears have grown over a larger scale Syria War... And especially one that involves the US. And at this point, it still may not be completely out of the question. But in light of the latest developments, it's increasingly looking like The White House's tough diplomacy may soon pay real dividends. And if this deal is sealed, we can avoid a potentially dangerous global war.

What Will Congress Do on Syria?

This week, we've been talking plenty about the crisis in Syria. President Obama wants a limited military strike to prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from instituting any sort of mass genocide and/or causing any more problems for American allies in the Middle East (like Israel and Turkey). But with growing skepticism at home, the President will have to deliver a nationally televised address on Tuesday to try to convince a war weary public and jittery Congress to go ahead and authorize the strike.

So will it work? At this point, no one knows for sure. Even AIPAC whipping in favor of Syria military intervention hasn't seemed to move many Members of Congress in their direction. And typically, very few on Capitol Hill have been willing to endure the "anti-Israel" and "weak on defense" lines of attack that AIPAC and other hawkish outfits wield at those who don't adhere to their foreign policy goals.

According to the latest whip count, Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) has moved to a definite Nay while Reps. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City, and finally announced something), Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas), and Dina Titus (D-Paradise) remain undecided. We're now hearing conflicting reports on Senator Dean Heller(R), since one lists him as a likely Nay while others still count him as undecided. Only Senator Harry Reid (D) so far is a firm Yea.

There's a real possibility Congress won't authorize any use of military force in Syria. Perhaps that’s why Secretary of State John Kerry sat down for an interview with MSNBC's Chris Hayes to make the Administration's case for military action.

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Clearly, he and the President are worried about the consequences of not striking. However, most Americans are now more worried about the consequences of striking. They just don't want to see more US troops dying in yet another mistaken war.

This weekend, I'll explain my own take on Syria. For now, I'll just say I can see the logic in Chris Hayes' and Joan Walsh's respective arguments. This is a messy situation that may not even get cleaned up with US military action.


So what can we do? And what should we do? Again, I'll get into more detail on that this weekend. And in the mean time, I'll update this space if we hear more breaking news on Syria.

Syria: Where We Stand Now

This week, we've been discussing the tough decision that Congress must make on Syria. Not only are there many questions on whether the US should take any military action in Syria, but now we're also seeing questions arise on how broad that action should be (should it be approved). And this is further complicating White House efforts to build support for a military strike, since some Members of Congress only feel comfortable backing a very limited air strike while others only feel comfortable backing a much much broader military campaign.

As it stands now, the fate of authorization for military force (AUMF) is still very much up in the air on Capitol Hill. This certainly holds true for the Nevada Delegation. According to TPM and Think Progress, Senator Dean Heller (R) and Reps. Dina Titus (D-Paradise) & Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) are all still undecided. Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) still hasn't declared a position, and only Senator Harry Reid (D) is a firm Yea. The only recent movement has come from Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson), who's increasingly sounding like he’s preparing to vote Nay.

This is coming on the heels of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voting 10-7 (with one voting present) in favor of a bill crafted by Senators Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) and Bob Corker (R-Tennessee) to only authorize 60-90 days of air strikes. While Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) succeeded in adding amendments in support of ultimate regime change in Syria, they're non-binding and don't commit any troops on the ground.

While AUMF passage looks like a fairly strong possibility in the Senate, the House is still a very different story. There, progressive and conservative groups may be close to securing an anti-war majority. But even there, it's far from settled, as there are still enough undecideds to tip the scales in favor of passage.

Meanwhile, President Obama is in St. Petersburg, Russia, for the G-20 Summit. There, he's dealing with a skeptical international audience... And Russian President Vladimir Putin, who's as dead-set against military intervention in Syria as ever. Can President Obama win over more international allies?

That may ultimately determine Congress' decision on Syria. Hardly anyone wants the US to go it alone. And President Obama risks violating international and US law if he orders military strikes without Congressional approval. So what happens in the coming days will be critical.

Decision Point

Yesterday, we looked at the increasingly difficult situation in Syria. There's no easy solution, but Congress must decide on something soon.

As of now, many Members of Congress remain on the fence. Yet as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has tailored a narrow resolution for a 90 day air strike, a few skeptical Senators jumped on board... While a few (hardened hawks) jumped off (because they want full war). Let's just say it's a very complicated picture on Capitol Hill right now.

And so far, it's looking quite complicated here in Nevada as well. Nevada's Members of Congress so far sound mostly undecided. And the hesitation is crossing party lines.

“The administration has not yet articulated what a potential strike on Syria would accomplish beyond a ‘punishment’ of the Assad regime,” said Republican Rep. Joe Heck's spokesman Greg Lemon in a statement Tuesday. “There are still many more detailed questions that must be answered in order to make a case for military action.”

“The president must demonstrate to the American people and Congress that any use of military force would be strategic, effective and short term and promote our national security and stability in the Middle East,” Democratic Rep. Dina Titus said Tuesday.

“I believe the American people deserve and rightfully expect to know that any engagement with Syria is in the best interests of our country and will truly help those it is intended to help,” Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford said last Thursday, following Secretary of State John Kerry’s announcement that officials had determined that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched chemical weapons against his own people.

Meanwhile, Senator Dean Heller (R) is sounding even more hesitant about military action, explicitly saying it should only be considered as a last resort. So far, Rep. Mark Amodei (R) hasn't publicly announced any position on Syria. At this point, only US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) has publicly announced support for President Obama's plan for military operations on Syria.

Opposition to military action is building on the left and on the right. And this is happening as Congressional leaders (Reid included) are trying to build bipartisan support for authorization (for use of military force). As we were saying yesterday, there are still a whole lot of moving parts to this story.

And as we were explaining yesterday, this is so difficult for so many in Congress to swallow because of the legacy of the Afghanistan & Iraq Wars. But for The White House, there are two distinctly different historical comparisons at work. They may very well have memories of Rwanda and Bosnia in mind as they're asking for intervention in the already bloody Syrian Civil War. Does America want to be culpable for sitting on the sidelines as genocide begins?

But again, many in Congress are making different historical references. For many, memories of Iraq & Afghanistan are still quite fresh. And the nation is still paying the price for rushing into war.

So what are we to do? This is for Congress to decide. So they need to be incredibly careful and deliberate in the days ahead.

No Easy Solution

Just since this morning, we've seen movement(s) on Syria. Congressional leaders now seem to be forming a united front behind President Obama. Even House Speaker John Boehner (R) announced his support after meeting with the President.



So it's a go? Not so fast.

Pew and ABC-Washington Post released new polls today showing large opposition to any military action against Syria. And these follow earlier polls showing mostly similar numbers. This is probably what Code Pink's Medea Benjamin was referring to when she and other Code Pink protesters briefly disrupted the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's hearing on Syria.



This is probably also why the fate of military authorization is still very much up in the air on Capitol Hill. Many members (including some from here) are still far from making up their minds. The horrors of the Assad Regime are certainly front and center... Along with many memories of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars.

So far, Congress is pretty fractured on Syria... And it goes beyond the usual party lines. Can the President's foreign policy team break through this? Or are enough Members of Congress so "war weary" that they'll even say no to what's supposed to be a "limited strike" on Syria?

There doesn't seem to be any "appealing option" when it comes to Syria. Do we want to risk lives by ordering a military strike? Or do we want to risk lives by letting Bashar al-Assad (who may be using chemical weapons, if we're to believe White House declarations) hang around for a while longer? Is there another way to handle this?

Ultimately, everyone will have to meet at the negotiating table. So how do we get the warring factions in Syria there? And what are we willing to do to help put an end to this gruesome civil war? These are among the many questions we keep asking about the Syria crisis. There's no easy solution, but we have to decide on something.

The Syria Question

There's a reason why you don't often see foreign policy questions here. Since this blog focuses on the policies and politics affecting the State of Nevada, we typically stick to domestic issues. But as our state economy becomes increasingly exposed to the global economy, this may change.

And in the mean time, the buzz on Capitol Hill has actually moved away from manufactured crises... At least for now. After all, there's a real crisis at hand. And this real crisis is increasingly overshadowing the fake ones.

So now, Congress has critical decision to make. Congress must now figure out what to do regarding Syria. President Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Francois Hollande, and others are quite convinced that the Assad Regime has been using chemical weapons against its own people. Yet in the wake of the British Parliament's surprising rejection of that nation taking military action against Syria, new questions have been rising about the scope of military action, the goals, and the cost. Some at home and abroad are even questioning US, British, and French intelligence blaming the Syrian Military for the chemical weapon attacks.

We're coming off two long, protracted, and grueling wars. Both were initially "justified" by 9/11 and fears of future al-Qaeda terrorist attacks. One (Iraq) turned out to be a rather bloody war of aggression sold to the American people with faulty intelligence, while the other (Afghanistan) has increasingly looked like a futile effort to prop up a flailing and corrupt regime. Obviously, the past decade of experience has given most Americans "War Fatigue". And as a result, there's plenty of resistance now to any kind of military involvement in Syria that we did not see in the build-up to the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

This is why President Obama is trying to reassure the nation and the world that this time is different. Can he convince us? This is why the coming deliberations on Capitol Hill will be so important.

Last decade, Congress agreed to let the Bush Administration rush us into two wars, two clunky attempts to curtail civil liberties (the "USA PATRIOT Act" and FISA Amendments Act), and seemingly endless billions of dollars worth of military spending that are coming back to haunt us now. Can we afford to let that happen to us again? Can we afford to let Congress abdicate its role in shaping US foreign policy?

Perhaps this time is different. After all, Barack Obama is now President. He hasn't tried to rush us into war in Syria. And the world community look to be more persuaded by our intelligence this time.

Still, the stakes are incredibly high. And the risk of the US falling into a quagmire in Syria may ultimately be greater than that of Iraq & Afghanistan last decade .

Clearly, the Obama Administration has had to think long and hard about the question of what America should do next on Syria. Now, it's Congress' turn. And we can only hope they're serious about finding the right answer.

It's Over.

It's really over.

So, today, I can report that as promised, the rest of our troops in Iraq will come home by the end of the year. After nearly nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over.

Over the next two months our troops in Iraq, tens of thousands of them, will pack up their gear, and board convoys for the journey home. The last American soldier will cross the border out of Iraq with their heads held high, proud of their success, and knowing that the American people stand united in our support for our troops. That is how America’s military efforts in Iraq will end.

But even as we mark this important milestone, we’re also moving into a new phase in the relationship between the United States and Iraq. As of January first, and in keeping with our strategic framework agreement with Iraq, it will be a normal relationship between sovereign nations, an equal partnership based on mutual interest and mutual respect.

After nearly nine years of war in Iraq, all the troops will be home... Or at least out of Iraq.

Count this as another campaign promise fulfilled by President Obama.



He said it would end under his watch. And to his credit, it has been... But will he get credit for this? And for that matter, helping the Libyan people free themselves of Qaddafi, killing Osama bin Laden, and encouraging "The Arab Spring" that is bringing democracy to The Middle East like we've never really seen before?

I guess time will tell, and we'll have the next year to see.