Wherein Nevada Is Positioned to Remain a Blue State in 2012, Part V

I think this video really explains it all.



However, I won't end it there. Believe it or not, there's actually more. Mitt Romney has attacked gay parents who adopted children, promised another $264,000 tax cut to the wealthiest 0.1%, stood up for Canadian oil company lobbyists over the people in "Middle America" who don't want to worry about the giant, dangerous tar sands oil pipeline in their backyard, and attacked the SUCCESSFUL auto industry rescue plan that saved American jobs. And hey, we're just talking about "Mr. 1%" Mittens here.

There's also "Frothy" Ricky Santorum. Oh, lordy...



Believe it or not, Mittens had to pour millions of campaign dollars into Michigan just to eke out a 3% win over that guy.

So when you consider his built-in advantages, the money he poured into the state, the attacks he leveled against Santorum, and the dreadful debate performance Santorum turned in last week, Romney’s three-point margin seems a lot less impressive. This was not like Florida, where Romney utterly decimated his chief foe (Newt Gingrich) and posted a lopsided victory. This was a must-win state that Romney threw everything he had at… and managed to win by just three points – apparently with a big boost from early voters, many of whom cast their ballots before Santorum surged into contention.

This suggests that Romney may not get much of a bounce out Michigan – and that he could find himself in big trouble again one week from now on Super Tuesday. The biggest state to vote that day is Ohio, a big Midwest state culturally and demographically similar to Michigan. The latest poll in the Buckeye State, released early on Tuesday, gives Santorum an 11-point lead over Romney, 37 to 26 percent. Maybe those numbers will tighten in the wake of Michigan, but Romney is going to have to fight for it.

So as we discussed last night, it's likely the G-O-TEA primary brawl will continue regardless of how Mittens' surrogates spin last night's results on the cable "news" channels. And as the primary fight goes on, Mittens faces more challenges... Including in the general election should he survive primary season, since he's lurched so far to the radical right that his issue positions are virtually identical to Santorum's.

And this brings us back here to Nevada. We've already seen Joe Heck run away from his BFF on housing. I don't think you need me to remind you why this happened... But hey, what the Heck!



Oh yes, and there's the economy that Mittens & Ricky keep blaming on President Obama. Yep, there's that economy that's now adding jobs here in Nevada, making consumers feel increasingly confident, and one that grew 3% in the fourth quarter of last year (better than most economists' expectations). At this point, I'm sure President Obama welcomes their "blame".

This is probably why Romney, Santorum, and their G-O-TEA buddies in Congress have shifted back to "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy. What's really funny with this is that talk of probing women's private parts, denying civil rights to LGBTQ Americans, dehumanizing Latin@ Americans simply because of their family heritage, and attacking Muslims for just being Muslim is really turning off voters. No, really. No, really.

Yesterday, local Republicans were trying to distract from their many woes plaguing them this month (like their EPIC FAIL of a caucus) by trumpeting a Public Opinion Strategies poll that even Jon Ralston (who likes their Nevada pollster) admitted undersampled Latin@ voters. Yet in Ralston's Sun column this morning, he noted how even this POS poll may spell trouble for the Nevada GOP.

The numbers in the North are fascinating. Berkley and Heller are in a dead heat in Washoe County, and the president’s numbers (56-40) are amazingly strong there. So, is the poll just wrong or is something happening here? Any poll can miss the mark, but folks should not miss what is happening in Washoe, as evidenced by Obama’s ’08 victory there and Reid’s ’10 win. Yes, no analogy is perfect, especially one that might involve Sharron Angle. But Washoe is turning bluer and bluer — Jill Derby and Heller were competitive there twice in congressional races — and even independents there seem more liberal than anywhere else in the state. That could be an ominous harbinger for the GOP.

Strangely enough, that POS poll had Obama and Shelley Berkley underperforming in Clark County while overperforming in Washoe County. Sorry, but I call BS on POS. I honestly do think they had sampling problems this time, so maybe the entire poll has to be thrown out. But even when that's done and we look at recent election results in Washoe County, Ralston is correct that Washoe seems to be trending Democratic. And yes, I also think he's right about independents there being turned off by the radical right G-O-TEA crazy. So when the likes of Romney and Santorum continue to double down on "CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy and economic royalist crap that would make Ebenezer Scrooge blush, Republicans may very well face serious problems in the Reno area this fall. And if that happens, then it's quite likely Nevada will take quite the deep blue hue come this November.

Michigan & Arizona Results Liveblog

5:30 PM-

We're starting to get results from Michigan now, and Rick Santorum has a very early lead. However, note that Oakland County (upper middle class & wealthy northwestern Detroit suburbs) and a few rural counties are just starting to report.

So far, we've seen plenty of spin on how much a win or loss means for Mitt Romney's campaign going forward. However, some seem to forget that Michigan's Republican primary was considered a "gimme" for Romney just a month ago.

A native son of Michigan, where his father served as governor, Romney’s facing high expectations about his ability to beat former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who’s directly challenged him with message focusing on the middle class and a manufacturing revival.

Romney had been expected to easily win here until Santorum upset the former Massachusetts governor in a trio of nominating contests earlier this month. If momentum carries Santorum to victory on Tuesday in Michigan, it would put Romney’s campaign – long considered the favorite among Republicans seeking the nomination – on precarious political footing.

“I think it’s going to be an embarrassment if he does lose. I don’t think it looks good when you win in your home state, but I’m hopeful that he’ll pull it out,” said Julie Wells, a teacher from Birmingham who intends to vote for Romney, at a rally Monday evening in this Detroit suburb.

This really goes to show how volatile the G-O-TEA primary season has become. And it goes to show how hard it's been for Romney to "seal the deal", despite all the media proclamations of Romney being "the presumptive nominee". Perhaps the media pundits really do assume too much?

5:45 PM-

As more results trickle in, we're starting to get a better sense of what's happening in the state. Now this is still early, so everything can change in the next hour. But at least for now, Mitt Romney is leading in Oakland County while Rick Santorum is building a healthy lead in the Grand Rapids area and the Upper Peninsula. Romney is expected to do well in the upscale Detroit suburbs, and Santorum is expected to do well in the Upper Peninsula, but Grand Rapids was expected to be a key swing region. Is this an important tea leaf for tonight?

6:00 PM-

OK, so we get how important Michigan is... So will our next door neighbor finally get some media love tonight? Probably not, since Arizona is about to join us and New Hampshire in "The Foregone Conclusion Club". Still, there may be some analysis on just how high Romney can run up the score. But if Romney somehow gets under 40% in Arizona tonight, there may be even more questions as to if the G-O-TEA base will ever really "be into him".

OK, Romney was just declared the winner in Arizona... But again, we'll have to see how high he runs up the score... And if it's enough to make up for a possible loss in Michigan.

6:15 PM-

So far, NBC News' exit poll suggests Mitt Romney is about to eek out a 3% win in Michigan tonight... So game over? Not quite. Look at the map. Will Romney's strength in the Detroit area be enough to overcome his weakness virtually everywhere else? We'll have to wait and see.

6:30 PM-

Here's TPM with the rundown on what looks to be a possible 2-for-2 night for Romney. Of course his campaign will spin it as good news... But is it?

His win in Arizona was not without its potential costs in the general election. Romney further tacked right on immigration, calling Arizona’s tough law a “model” for the nation in an Arizona debate and accepting an endorsement from the governor who signed it, Jan Brewer. Democrats are hoping that Romney’s continued embrace of a crackdown on undocumented immigrants will help motivate Hispanic voters to turn out in droves for President Obama, potentially putting Arizona in play as a swing state.

It’s for that reason that those delegates might seem little consolation. The main focus of the fight is in Michigan: it’s where both candidates will deliver their speeches tonight. The reason: in many pundits’ eyes this isn’t even a battle he should be having in the first place. This is Romney’s home state; he was born here, his father was governor here, and Romney beat John McCain handily here only four years ago.

Now, though, he’s in a lose-lose situation. Should he lose his birth state to Santorum, then even his close allies admit this could upend his campaign. Romney made something of a preemptive strike on this in an interview with Fox News. He told his hosts that it would be more significant if he “was turned down by Massachusetts” - the state he had lived in for forty years. He also slammed any talk of a brokered convention or of himself slipping out of the fight, framing the race as a drawn-out battle of attrition that was all about the delegates.

It’s the issue of the delegates that make up the next part of the lose-lose scenario for Romney. Because of Michigan’s allocation of delegates by district, he could actually come out of tonight a close second and yet actually have more on hand than Santorum. However, even if he were to win by a slim margin, it’s possible the media will join in the framing that this is still a loss: that the mere fact he’s having such a close contest in his birth state is an intrinsic sign of his weakness as a candidate.

Mittens keeps trying and trying and trying to win over those darned teabaggers with even more radical right rhetoric. Yet with each new flip-flop and "arrogant 1% moment" and "inauthentic moment of blue collar pander", Romney keeps digging himself into a deeper electoral hole. Should he emerge as the Republican nominee, the G-O-TEA may still be in deep doo-doo come November.

6:50 PM-

Dave Weigel posted this and this on Twitter.

daveweigel ‏ @daveweigel Close
This primary will END the RACE. Just like NH did. And SC did. And FL did. And... #MIprimary

6:36 PM - 28 Feb 12 via TweetDeck · Details

daveweigel ‏ @daveweigel
BREAKING: In a couple of days Romney will lose a bunch of primaries to Santorum anyway. #MIprimary

6:36 PM - 28 Feb 12 via TweetDeck · Details

I suspect we'll soon see the Romney campaign declare "VICTORY!" at some point within the next 40 minutes. However, this won't end G-O-TEA primary season. Oh no, I suspect we'll be back here next week to liveblog "SUPER DUPER TUESDAY!!!" It's really about this.

There are 59 delegates up for grabs in Michigan and Arizona Tuesday, but the delegate count is being overshadowed by the nail-biter race in Michigan where Romney could lose the state he grew up in. The outcome in Michigan has taken on an outsized, symbolic importance that will dictate the mood heading into Super Tuesday next week.

In a way, no matter the outcome in Michigan, the damage to Mitt Romney’s campaign is already done. No one knows who will win Michigan tonight, but the fact that it will be incredibly close has weakened Romney’s campaign by underscoring his enduring problems connecting with working class and evangelical voters. This was supposed to be an easy state for Romney, who took it by ten points in 2008’s primary and has outspent Santorum there this time by 2 to 1. Even headlines like Romney barely wins home state will not be doing him any favors. In the same way, as both Republicans and Democrats have commented, Rick Santorum may lose Michigan, but in a sense he’s already won by coming this close.

And now, Santorum has a chance to win outright in Ohio and Tennessee and Oklahoma. As long as Mittens continues to play footsie with teabaggers, and as long as teabaggers continue to play hard to get while flirting with Santorum, this primary fight will go on... And President Obama keeps looking better and better and better. ;-)

We're Taking a Break from "Tax Week"...

Tonight and tomorrow morning to take a look at what happens next door... And in Michigan... As well as what's been happening nationally. It seems like the wheels are falling off "The G-O-TEA Express", especially since it's veered so far to the radical right lately.



Huh?



HUH??!!

Early this month, I thought things looked bad for Republicans after the Nevada Caucus. But as the circus does its final act in Arizona and Michigan before moving to "Super Tuesday Land", the G-O-TEA circus clowns contenders have really lost it... And by "it", I mean the November election. ;-)

The first poll closures happen at 6:00 PM tonight, so I'll be back then to live blog the Arizona & Michigan results, the media spin, and the facts that debunk the spin.