Saturday, November 3, 2012

Preliminary Early Voting Report

Now that early voting has come to an end, we can start analyzing the numbers. Clark County and Washoe County have posted new data, so let's take a look at the state's two population hubs.

In Washoe (Reno), the final in-person early vote count reached 111,190 people in total. 44,402 Republicans voted early in-person compared to 45,043 Democrats. But when the mail-in (or absentee) ballot count from yesterday is included, Republicans take a 451 raw vote lead. That makes for an almost final Republican turnout advantage... Of 0.004%, about on par with voter registration there.

In Clark (Vegas), the final in-person early vote count reached 436,631 people. 140,727 Republicans voted early in-person compared to 210,431 Democrats. Again, not all the mail-in ballots have been counted yet, so the full numbers are not here yet. But when yesterday's mail-in ballot count is included, here's where we are for now: Democrats have a 70,670 raw vote lead, or a 14.62% turnout advantage. This is just a tick below Democrats' 14.95% voter registration advantage in Clark County.

And here are some in-person early voting stats for the various swing districts in Clark County. (I've yet to find mail-in stats for districts within the county.) In NV-03, Democrats closed with a 5,018 raw vote lead, or a 2.79% turnout edge (slightly above 2.11% registration edge). In the Clark County part of NV-04, Democrats closed with a 27,112 raw vote lead, or a 19.03% turnout advantage (which is above the 17.61% voter registration advantage there). And in the key State Senate Districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year, Democrats closed in-person early voting with a 7.27% lead in the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5 (almost 2% above registration), an 8.38% lead in the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6 (just over 1% above registration), and an 8.65% lead in the Southwest Valley based SD 9 (about 0.5% above registration). Republicans' one bright spot (compared to all the rest in Clark) lies in SD 18, where their 0.01% turnout lead is at parity with voter registration there.

So we'll have to wait for the Secretary of State's next report for the updated mail-in ballot count. But so far, it looks like Nevada Democrats are making a strong close to early voting here. Yesterday's statewide lead was about 7% (on par with registration), and the new Clark & Washoe data suggest that statewide number won't be dropping today.


  1. Hi tried emailing you, but it bounced back. Would it be alright to post some of your entries today on in our roundup of election coverage? We'd of course link to you and give full citation--Best, JF

  2. Sorry that I couldn't get back to you yesterday, but please feel free to link to and use whatever I post here. And thanks so much for reading my blog.